I do have some other cool things coming up for you soon, however.
This is by far the simplest state to redistrict. There are relatively few counties, and the shape of the state makes it easy to redistrict as well. Right now, the partisan composition is 7-1 D, but in a few months, it will most likely be 6-2 D. The 2012 Redistricting will be based on that.
1st: Blue District
57-41 McCain, from 58-40 McCain
Little change here, but the district is much more contiguous. Kratovil will be gone by the time the 2012 election rolls around, but since St. Sen. Andy Harris, the man most likely to succeed him, doesn’t live in this new district, Kratovil could conceivably run again, as could Caroline Co. Commisioner Jefferson Ghrist, who is running in the primary against Harris this year. 79% White, 15% Black, and Republican unless Obama wins by a landslide in 2012. The E. Shore and Harford and Cecil Counties make up this district.
2nd: Green District: Dutch Ruppersberger-D and John Sarbanes-D
56-42 Obama, from 60-38 Obama (R) or 59-39 Obama (S)
I guess technically it’s now a swing district, not a Democratic district, but it’s pretty safe for any reasonably popular Democratic incumbent. I believe Ruppersberger would retire and Sarbanes would retain the seat. Nearly all of Suburban Baltimore County is here. 65% White, 26% Black. + 0.5 R.
3rd: Red District: Elijah Cummings-D
83-15 Obama, from 79-20 Obama
58% Black, 35% White, and very Democratic. Cummings is safe here, with all of Baltimore and small arms of inner suburbs.
4th: Purple District
53-45 Obama
A nearly perfect swing district, consisting of Annapolis, Baltimore Suburbs, Ellicott city, etc.
71% White, 17% Black. I’d assume this area is very wealthy. Now at +1 R.
5th: Yellow District: Roscoe Bartlett
58-40 McCain (no change)
Bartlett’s district is very similar and safe, with the panhandle, Frederick, and some Baltimore Exurbs. 85% White.
6th: Periwinkle District: Steny Hoyer
77-22 Obama. From 65-33 Obama
This would be a very interesting primary if it happened, as Donna Edwards, lives here, too, but she’ll probably run in the 8th. If she does run here, the district is 55% Black, 37% White, but Hoyer is a member of the leadership and highly entrenched. Either way, it’s safe Dem. Hoyer could always retire as well. It combines high-minority Prince George’s County with Southern Maryland.
7th: Blue-ish District: Chris Van Hollen
68-30 Obama, from 74-25 Obama.
Van Hollen is happy he has no contested primary. His district’s safe; it’s all DC Suburbs. 60% White, 14% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 11% Black.
8th: Gray District: Donna Edwards
82-17 Obama. From 85-14 Obama.
If Edwards runs here, which is more likely, she’s safe. It’s more DC Suburbs, including the U. of Maryland. 42% Black, 29% White, 19% Hispanic.
All in all, this district converts two blue seats to purple seats, which could lead to anything from a 6-2 Dem to a 4-4 split, depending on the year and the candidates. I believe 5-3 would more accurately reflect Maryland’s Democratic lean, but this is how it turned out.
Although mathematically 5-3 seems to be the proper balance for Maryland, you have to remember that the very nature of the first-past-the-post, single-district system exaggerates partisan leanings. The map that you have drawn is pretty much what a Republican gerrymander would realistically be.
Andy Harris is a state Senator, not an “Assemblyman.” BTW, in Maryland (as in Virginia and West Virginia) the lower house of the legislature is the “House of Delegates,” so the title would be “Del. Harris.”
This is just a horrible, horrible map. Fortunately, there is zero chance of it ever being enacted–even if by some miracle Ehrlich does win in November.
about having Baltimore represented by more than one congresscritter. I think it’s beneficial to have a city to be represented by at least three congresspeople so it would get more attention for funding, etc. When Baltimore succeeds, the whole state’s economy flourishes.
is the only way this could possibly go, and rightfully, due to un-gerrymandering.