Since I am currently on my spring break from school I thought that I’d play around with Dave’s Redistricting App in order to draw what I’d like NJ to have as a congressional map come redistricting. Since Jersey is expected to lose a congressional representative my main goal was to get rid of Scott Garrett’s (R) seat in the 5th district, considering he’s one of my least favorite members of congress. Other goals of mine were to make sure cities and counties were not separated as much as possible, make sure Adler’s (D) 3rd district makes him a safer incumbent (I predict he will win re-election in 2010), and ultimately make the map as realistic as possible. Take a look for yourself and let me know what you think.
District 1: Rob Andrews (D)
As you can see I pretty much left the 1st district the same and only made minimal changes. My changes included moving the district out of Burlington County and further into Gloucester. This new district voted for Obama with ~64% and has a PVI of ~D+11 (from D+12). Andrews should win re-election easily as he is currently doing so.
District 2: Frank LoBiondo (R)
Again another district with only minor changes. I moved the second out of Camden, Gloucester,and Burlington Counties and into southern Ocean county. Obama won this new district with ~53% and has a PVI of D+0 (from D+1). This district should be competitive in a good year and a top recruit (Jeff VanDrew comes to mind).
District 3: John Adler (D)
This is the first district that I put some major changes to. First I kicked the 3rd out of conservative stronghold Ocean county and moved the district to completly cover Burlington county and into Mercer county where it covers about 60% of Trenton. Obama won 60% of this district with a PVI of D+7 (from R+1). This district will be competitive in 2010 but if Alder pulls it off (which I expect) then he will have this safer district to represent.
District 4: Chris Smith (R)
This is another district where I only made minor changes. I was able to move the 4th district completely out of Mercer and Burlington counties and settle it into both upper Ocean and lower Monmouth counties. This is the first district so far that McCain won with ~57% and has a PVI of R+11 (from R+6). Republicans will win this seat easily and should be considered a safe seat.
District 5(Former 12): Rush Holt (D)
This is the first district that I drew that is a textbook example of a gerrymandered district (the old district was also). I moved this new Y-shaped district completely out of Hunterdon and Somerset counties and alittle of out Mercer, Monmouth, and Middlesex counties. To make up for these loses I extended the district into Union county where Lance used to represent. This new district voted for Obama with 66% and has a PVI of D+13 (from D+5). This is a safe seat where Holt and future Democratic congress members should win without a major fight.
District 6: Frank Pallone (D)
As anther seriously gerrymandered district (which was already so) I was able to move the 6th district out of some parts of Monmouth and Middlesex counties and into Union county where it now covers some parts where Lance’s district used to represent. The new district voted for Obama 56% and has a PVI of about D+3 (from D+8). The district is less safe than it used to be but Democrats should still be able to win it fairly easily.
District 7: Leonard Lance (R) Vs. Scott Garrett (R)
When I first tried to redraw the 7th district I tried making it into a Dem friendly district so to make the GOP lose 2 seats instead of 1 in Jersey. But the only way I could have make this happen was to turn is district into one of the worst cases of gerrymandering possible. I decided against this (based on both particle reasons and my dislike of insane gerrymandering) and instead make a super conservative district. This district combines the western portions of both former 5th and 7th districts and includes Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties completely and a small portion of Union county. This new district gave McCain a 58% victory and has a PVI of R+12. If this district is drawn there is a large possibility of a GOP primary fight between incumbents Leonard Lance and Scott Garrett where I would expect Lance to win since he would have represented most of the new district. A Lance victory would rid Jersey of the most disliked (I say this generously to Garrett) congressman by Jersey Dems.
District 8: Bill Pascrell (D)
Now comes time for the district where I currently live. I withdrew the district a tad bit away from Essex County (only a tad) and make it not only go further into suburban Northern Passaic County but also into western Bergan county. Obama won this new district with 60% and has a PVI of D+7 (from D+10). This is a safe blue district and Bill Pascrell (love this guy) will represent this district for as long as he wants (considering he wins suburban towns that votes Republican by over 20 points).
District 9: Steve Rothman (D)
Rothman’s district is pretty much the same with minor changes of moving the district a tad bit out of Jersey City and out of Passaic County (Hawthorne) and into Bergan County. This district voted for Obama with 62% and has a PVI of about D+9 (the same as before).
District 10: Donald Payne (D)
With Payne’s district I was able to move it out of Hudson county completely (allowing Jersey City to be split into only 2 districts instead of 3) and moved it to almost completely cover Essex county. While the district is no longer a vastly Black majority district it still remains a large polarity of the pop. Obama won the district with 78% and has a PVI of D+25 (from D+33).
District 11: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) vs. Scott Garrett (R)
Now comes the 3rd safest GOP district in the state and probably the most wealthy in Jersey.m The new district has been moved out of Essex, Somerset, and Sussex county competently and put into northern Passaic county and into northern Bergan county. This weirdly shaped gerrymandered district covers the eastern part of the old 5th district and all of Morris county. This district may become a battleground for both Frelinghuysen and Garrett if both choose to run for re-election. I would expect Frelinghuysen to win considering most of the district lays in Morris where Frelinghuysen lives and currently represents and is quit popular. The district voted for McCain with 54% and has a PVI of R+8 (from R+7).
District 12: Albio Sires (D)
Now comes the last district left, the 12th. Only small changes were made such as moving the district further into Jersey City and out of Secaucus and Kearney. The district is 47% Latino and 30% white (down from 56%) making the district minority dominated. Obama won the district with 77% and has a PVI of D+24 (from D+21). This is a safe seat for Dems where a Latino should be expected to represent.
So now that you have seen what I wish to see as Jersey’s new congressional map tell me what you think.
Loading ...
An effective, cleanly drawn, and realistic map, although granted, the NJ redistricting process wouldn’t produce this result.
I really really like this map. I have a couple questions.
1) South Orange and Maplewood are currently divided between Payne/Pascrell. I live in NJ-8 but am currently away at college. Could you tell me if South Orange is still with Pascell in your map? You said you moved the district a bit out of Essex county. Does that mean you moved it out of Montclair, West Orange, and South Orange?
1a) Did you keep South Orange/Maplewood in the same district? The towns are basically the same and it always annoyed me that they are divided into different districts.
2) I’m assuming Irvington is in Payne’s district- true?
3) Does anyone know which district NJ will probably loose in redistricting? Which congresscritter will be drawn out? I know that many people are saying that Melacon’s district in LA will be drawn out, I was wondering if you or someone else had heard anything like this for NJ.
Awesome map! It’s so cool to see that you’ve done this. I can’t imagine creating something like this. It would be cool to see a really really gerrymandered NJ map too if you had time- just for fun.
Also…pretty cool that there are 2 gay teens from NJ-8 here on SSP!
I did a pre-Dave’s app, slight-Democratic gerrymander.
I stuck upper Bergen and upper Passaic in Democratic districts, using the population decline of urban North Jersey as an excuse. By doing so I could reduce Republicans in North Jersey to 1 strong Republican district (Lance vs Garrett) and 1 week Republican district (that voted for Obama!).
My main criticism with your plan is Somerset County has some strong Democratic turf (Franklin, etc) and you are locking it in a Republican district.
I drew a map of New Jersey about two months ago http://swingstateproject.com/d… and I think I like yours better. I tried to keep cities intact too but I kept splitting them so it’s really great you could keep them all intact except for Newark. I have just a couple of concerns: Christie would not be too pleased about a district that combined two Republicans. I think he would want to put Lance and Holt in the same district although I think the district will be better suited for Holt. Also, I think Pallone might be too weak with 43% of the vote for McCain. The areas he has are pretty swingy with the Jersey Shore swinging far to the right for Christie. Also, Summit and Westfield went for Obama but can easily swing back to the Republicans. I’m even a bit worried about Middlesex County areas because Christie won there and the 6th does not contain heavily Democratic New Brunswick.
Also, I think you might want to correspond with Tim Tierney, a Democrat from Hazlet, NJ who is also working on a redistricting proposal. Him and I have given each other alot of comments on each other’s proposals. I am sure him and you could trade some advice. His email is at t.tier76@hotmail.com
Really good map overall though.
Darlin’, I got nuthin’ but love for ya as you’ve also been on SSP about as long as I have, and also we’re “family”, also, but it looks like you literally took pictures of your computer screen with varying levels of focus instead of doing, ya know, screenshots. Amirite?
Perhaps there needs to be an official SSP guide to making redistricting diaries…from taking and storing pics online to doing HTML to display pics and text and beyond…and maybe we could get the crew here at SSP to help out Dave by open-sourcing one to attach to his redistricting app as a nice guide. Or at least his website or something….
You know what though? You got this diary done on your Spring Break, which is reason enough for me to salute you. The kids are alright and all that…even if they can be surprisingly inept at teh computers. 😉
And by the way, I am not being condescending and snarky (maybe a little, but in a good-hearted way) by making fun of your pics because I freely admit to haven totally broken the entire SSP site with my pictures, like twice, which is far, far worse than any unfocused pic.
And, um, again, David and James et al., if you’re listening, still really sorry about that…
I just downloaded Dave’s redistricting app and I am wondering how to check percentage president candidates won in ’08 and PVI of the new districts. Can that be done in the application?
So there is no way to check the new percentages? How did you do it for Jersey? (very nice map BTW) Every time someone posts a potential redistricting, they get partisan data. How?