IL-Gov: Brady Posts a Big Lead Over Quinn

This is just brutal.

Public Policy Polling (4/1-5, Illinois voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 33

Bill Brady (R): 43

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

The scariest number, though, is this one: Pat Quinn’s job approval rating is 25-53. Those are some true toilet bowl numbers. It’d be an amazing feat for an incumbent, even in a blue-leaning state like Illinois, to survive in the face of such discontent. Indeed, PPP has even gone so far as to coin “The Corzine Line“, pointing out that Jon Corzine’s -23% job approval ended up giving him a defeat by a 4% spread in last year’s New Jersey gubernatorial election.

I know that some observers believed that Quinn got an easy ride with the primary win of the sharply conservative Brady. And, yes, Quinn’s lucky that he’s not dealing with the Illinois equivalent of Chris Christie, but it’ll still be pretty hard for him to gin up enthusiasm among his own base — especially with the extremely underwhelming Alexi Giannoulias sharing space on the ballot as the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. Brady is already cleaving off 19% of the Democratic vote, and a further 28% is undecided. Quinn may be able to turn off those Democratic voters from Brady with blistering attack ads, but at this point I just have to wonder if those same voters that Quinn needs would just as easily decide to stay home.

65 thoughts on “IL-Gov: Brady Posts a Big Lead Over Quinn”

  2. is actually an improvement from PPP’s 25-55 finding on January 27.  Compare that to Rasmussen’s 43-56 approval on March 9 (resulting in an identical, 10-point Brady lead)and Research 2000’s 44-35 (resulting in a 15-point QUINN lead) on February 22.  

    Just more quirky, inconsistent polling results, which seems to be happening more and more this cycle.  Beats the shit out of me who’s right on this race.

  4. Hynes for Governor and Hoffman for Senate would have made both races far more favorable to Dems, even if they would likely still have been competitive.

    I was also hoping (strongly) they’d nominate Raja Krishnamoorthi for Comptroller, although I admit selfishly that I mainly wanted that so that there would be some Indian-Americans in elected office who weren’t Bobby Jindal. (I’m Indian-American.)

    And none of this even takes into account the LG-f*ckup.

    Seriously, I was fairly unhappy at the primary results – it just seemed like IL Dems made a ton of bad choices and they may end up paying in November.  

  5. people (including me) strongly supported Hynes in the primary. Many are still upset at Quinn, however once Quinn defines Brady I think democrats will unite. Brady is too conservative for Illinois, and once people see him as something besides a generic R we should be able to win this race. That being said I want to point out I rooted for Hoffman and Hynes, and wish Illinois didn’t have such an early primary. If the primary was today I think we would have Hynes and Hoffman. Obviously this race is a tossup, but give it time for the dust to settle and we will win. At least I hope.    

  6. Something which was really unusual about the Illinois poll was Obama’s 50/42 approval rating in Illinois. I think that is at least worth being skeptical with these polls.

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