Despite the fact that Democrats are perceived to have something of a turnout advantage in the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha (remember: the only truly competitive big-event statewide primaries in Pennsylvania are on the Democratic ticket, and those primaries happen to fall on the same day as the PA-12 special), the NRCC must be smelling an opportunity here. They just dropped some serious dollars on the race:
1. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
Payee: MCCARTHY MARCUS HENNINGS LTD
Date Expended = 04/09/2010 Amount Expended = $10500.00
Purpose: MEDIA2. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
Payee: NATIONAL MEDIA RESEARCH PLANNING & PLAC
Date Expended = 04/09/2010 Amount Expended = $168290.65
Purpose: MEDIA3. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
Payee: THE TARRANCE GROUP
Date Expended = 04/09/2010 Amount Expended = $15000.00
Purpose: SURVEY/RESEARCH
This is the kind of district they’ll need to win if they’re going to take back the House. I hope the DCCC isn’t napping.
I haven’t seen any polling on this race, so maybe Burns has a real shot to beat Critz here, but I thought it was assumed that this will be the district that gets carved up in redistricting when PA loses a seat in 2012. I guess it would help drive their narrative that Democrats are doomed in November (even though this is the one district in the country that went from Gore to Kerry to McCain).
Both special elections are in May, and R wins in both could drive the narrative for months.