125 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. since it’s an open thread.  My ideal choice would be my senator patrick leahy.  …if he was 35 years younger.  And vermont’s governor was a democrat.  

  3. Are we officially hitting the panic button on this one yet? I know Illinois leans strongly Democratic and this is the president’s Senate seat, but it’s undeniable that the last bit of news about Broadway Bank has hurt Alexi. He’s not unelectable yet and I think there’s still a 50/50 chance he wins this, but I think it’s worth asking what procedures/deadlines the state has in place for a candidate that drops out. Does anybody know?

    I’m just thankful that this stuff is coming out in April rather than October. I’m not trying to sound like a Chicken Little, but it really irritates me that we put this seat into play for the GOP. Why couldn’t Lisa Madigan have done the party a solid and stuck out a term in Washington? She might even have liked it enough to stay.

  4. The election is just 3 days away. Has anyone seen any polling on this race? It’s a D+15 district but the teabaggers are drooling all over it.  

  5. I hate the system but there are 5 Congressional District Conventions (2D 3R) today that will essentially pick the candidates to challenge incumbants in the fall (all candidates have indicated they will abide by the endorsement.)

    Democratic Conventions.

    2nd CD

    – Construction contractor Dan Powers defeated former state Rep Shelley Madore in 2 Ballots. He will face John Kline.

    http://www.mncampaignreport.co…

    3rd CD – Statewide parent-teachers association head Jim Meffert defeated  psychiatrist Maureen Hackett in 6 Ballots. He will face Eric Paulsen.

    http://www.mncampaignreport.co…

    Republicans

    Republicans will pick from a selection of some guys for candidates to face Keith Ellison (5th), Collin Peterson (7th) and Jim Obestar (8th).

    FWIW I would be very suprised if any seats changed hands in Minnesota this year.  

  7. Sarah Palin – 28%

    Ron Paul – 20%

    Mitt Romney – 13%

    Newt Gingrich – 11%

    Mike Huckabee – 11%

    Rick Santorum – 9%

    Gary Johnson – 3%

    Tim Pawlenty – 3%

    Mike Pence – 2%

  10. the Republicans at the SRLC united behind a common candidate to prevent a Paul victory? Not to go all blackhelicopter on you guys but I can believe it.  

  11. DCCC Chair Van Hollen was in Des Moines on Wednesday raising money for Leonard Boswell. The event was well-attended, but I have no idea how much they raised.

    Of the 7 GOP candidates, only NRCC favorite Jim Gibbons has announced his 1Q numbers:

    Jim Gibbons, Republican candidate for Congress in Iowa’s Third Congressional District, announced on Friday that his campaign has raised over $160,000 during the first quarter of 2010. Since announcing his candidacy, Gibbons has raised a total of $368,800 in his bid to defeat Leonard Boswell. In documents to be filed with the Federal Election Commission, Jim Gibbons for Congress will report raising $161,538 and has a cash on hand balance of $265,000.

    During the quarter, Gibbons received contributions from hundreds of concerned Iowans. In fact, the majority of Gibbons contributions came from individuals. The campaign reports that of the $161,538 raised, only $7,000, or 4% came from PACs.

    Here on the ground, quite a few people expect State Senator Brad Zaun to win the primary despite Gibbons’ financial advantage.  

  12. The GOP candidates held their first debate on Wednesday. I am even more convinced that having Rod Roberts in the race is great for Terry Branstad. Roberts keeps it from being a choice between two candidates, one of whom (Bob Vander Plaats) is more conservative.

    I am annoyed that Iowa journalists don’t challenge the Republicans when they make stuff up about the state budget. They just keep saying “billion dollar deficit,” and journalists do nothing, and probably most Iowans have no idea that we don’t have any budget deficit.

  13. Remember that polling lead claimed by Republican Edward Lynch over Democrat Ted Deutch in FL-19?  SSP reported it in a Daily Digest a few weeks ago.  Turns out that Lynch does not have a pollster and there was no scientific “poll.”  The “poll” was just the campaign calling people and asking them what they think.  No potential for funny business there.  

    http://www.postonpolitics.com/…

  16. “President Palin” is a weak sauce losing argument

    I’d summarize this as the basic argument that’s pertinent for discussion here:

    Those who think that “polls show that Democrats and Obama are doing well enough” aren’t talking to people on the ground.  I am doing a lot of work over the past 2 years right in my Congressional District (NJ-5) on a Congressional level and there are a number of grassroots organizations who were very active in 2008 who are not thrilled with what is going on now in Congress.  Sure, many of those votes will be there – but will these people be taking the time away from their jobs, family and friends, or donate money to campaigns on a federal, state or local level that will put Democrats over the top?  Not as likely.[…]

    Voters have priorities.  And for politicians to earn the votes and time, energy and money from voters takes actions.  Unfortunately, right now there is a lack of motivation by activists because they don’t feel like the politicians have lived up to their end of the deal.

    The subthread started by Dallasdoc with this post is particularly clear, I think. The point that Dallasdoc makes that seems most relevant to this site really has to do with the choice activists have to spend their time and money on effective charitable or issues advocacy organizations instead of particular politicians’ campaigns, let alone larger party organizations:

    Winning elections is a partisan goal

    Activists have to be persuaded to act in a partisan fashion to achieve that goal.  Activist goals are more along the line of universal health care or reversing global climate change.  Without the partisans joining in on those efforts, forcing party officials to act more radically than they’re comfortable with, activists tend to lose interest in partisan activity.

    or further down:

    NGO’s and other organizations are ways to work toward activist goals:  Planned Parenthood for reproductive choice, for instance, or the Nature Conservancy or Doctors Without Borders.  Activists do not necessarily feel locked in to an electoral frame of politics.  We participate in electoral politics to the extent that it offers means toward achieving our goals, and when it does it is potentially powerful and we participate.

    Without achievements to interest activists (or as they’re commonly known, “the base”) how successful are partisans?

    As someone who sees himself as a realist (and therefore, a “partisan” under Dallasdoc’s dichotomy), I find that he nevertheless really speaks for me, in that I have to be unusually highly motivated to spend much time or money in the direct service of a politician’s campaign for (re-)election, and tend to send money to a select few charitable or issues advocacy organizations I consider effective. There is absolutely no risk that I would stay home from the polls and thereby help the candidate I like least to win, but I think the diary and subthread I cite here are relevant to this site because they speak to several issues:

    (1) The degree of motivation of potential voters, donors, and volunteers

    (2) Whether it is a problem

    (3) If it is, why it is

    (4) Whether activists are in fact the “base” of the Democratic party (I cast doubt on that in one of my posts in that thread; I am “MichaelNY” on DailyKos, in case you are interested).

    (5) Whether these things, taken together, are in fact likely to create a disaster for the Democrats in 2010 or 2012. For example, is there much of a basis to think Runyan is likely to defeat weak-sauce(?) Adler in 2010?

  19. To follow the GOP primary in NY-1 keep an eye out on the NY Attorney General race.

    Right now NYS GOP chairman’s son and Richard Nixon grandson Chris Cox is running in the GOP primary vs. businessman Randy Altschuler for the right to take on Dem Rep. Tim Bishop. There are also a bunch of other “some dude” GOPers running too. But with NYS difficult ballot access laws it is doubtful any of them will make it to the primary or be a factor there.

    Both Cox and Altschuler have raised serious money. SOme GOP insiders (I am sure with Ed Cox’s help) are trying to get Altschuler to drop out or run for something else.

    What I would watch for in this race is to see if GOP Sen. John Flanagan runs for State Attorney General. If he does it would open up a state senate seat in Smithtown NY (Altschuler’s hometown) for him to drop down and run for.

    This could change the dynamics of what could be a damaging primary for the GOP.  

  22. A pair of special election primaries in the California State Legislature, in Senate District 37 (lies completely in Riverside County and was narrowly won by Obama), and Assembly District 43 (Glendale-based).

    I’m rooting for fellow Armenian Nayiri Nahabedian in AD-43. I definitely hope she can win a majority of the vote in the primary, though I know next to nothing about the other candidates (2 other Dems, 1 being Armenian as well, and 1 Rep) and how they’ll influence the election. At the very least I hope Nayiri finishes at the top of the Democratic line. Krekorian won 68-32 in 08, so I am not worried about the runoff (which occurs between the top finishers of both parties if no one gets 50%+1 initially) unless the base just does not turn out, though now with the popular (at least in California and maybe in a few other states) HCR bill passed, that is probably unlikely.

    SD-37 features 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and 1 American Independent. I don’t know how strong the Dems are, (though Guerrero lost only 45-55 against Benoit in 08) and just only hope that we can win this seat, especially since the Democratic base now has a reason to turn out in this district where the Republicans have a registration advantage of less than 4%.

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