Quinnipiac (4/8-13, registered voters, 1/20-24 in parentheses):
Charlie Crist (R-inc): 33 (44)
Marco Rubio (R): 56 (47)
Undecided: 10 (8)
(MoE: ±4.4%)Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Marco Rubio (R): 30
Charlie Crist (I): 32
Undecided: 13Kendrick Meek (D): 38 (35)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 17 (19)Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (36)
Charlie Crist (R): 48 (48)
Undecided: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
A whole lot has happened in the last 24 hours since this poll from Quinnipiac came out. I’m not sure if seeing this poll was Crist’s “fuck it” moment, or if he’d already decided to act, but yesterday he took a sorta-bold step back on the path toward independence that he once walked: Crist vetoed legislation passed by Florida’s GOP-held legislature, near and dear to conservative hearts, that pushed merit pay and limited teacher tenure. His veto is a thumb in the eye to the local GOP establishment, and probably ends any remaining vestigial possibility of him winning the Senate primary against right-wing darling Marco Rubio.
The reaction from the rest of the state’s GOP was pretty swift: he lost endorsements from state legislators almost immediately, NRSC chair John Cornyn (who’d previously sheepishly stuck by his Crist endorsement) started warning Crist about getting any ideas about straying off the reservation, and by the end of the day, Crist had lost his campaign chair: Connie Mack (the former Sen., not the current Rep.).
Rumors were flying this morning that Crist advisers were now pivoting toward an independent run, or else dropping out altogether and moving toward a 2012 run against Bill Nelson. And just hours ago, despite having made a Shermanesque statement last week about an indie run, Crist said something that the media is running with as an indication that the indie bid is imminent: in response to questions about an indie bid, he said, “I’m not thinking about that today. We’ll look at that later on.” Not quite political oratory on the order of “We having nothing to fear but fear itself,” but certainly a provocative question mark. (Although with the filing deadline coming up within weeks, “later on” can’t be much later.)
In the event the indie bid happens, Quinnipiac shows that the GOP near-slam-dunk turns into a three-way frenzy where Crist, Rubio, or even Dem Kendrick Meek have a credible shot. Interestingly, Quinnipiac also finds that Meek has been gaining on Rubio in the head-to-head (down only 4), as Meek works his tail off under the radar (as seen with his unnecessary, but framework-building petition gathering scheme) while Rubio’s right-wing leanings may be getting more apparent to the casual viewer. So, whether or not this turns into a three-way race, the Dems need to watching this one closely.
UPDATE: I’m not sure if this was planned or the veto was the last straw, but Mitt Romney, about as establishment a GOP figure as you can get, just endorsed Marco Rubio in this race.
A 2012 challenge to Bill Nelson has to look attractive to him right now.
The problem with an indy run is that Crist is ambitious, he doesn’t see himself in the twilight of his career, and an indy run ends his career altogether if he doesn’t thread the needle and win……not to mention even if he does win, he then is forever insecure as both parties’ bases and organizations forever turn fire on him. He becomes an island, which is something Joe Lieberman is fine with since he really is in his political twilight, but Crist can’t be.
I think, too, Crist dropping out hands the seat to Rubio. I don’t like our chances in a 2-way where Meek himself has to do the dirty work against Rubio, rather than rely on Crist doing it in a divisive and late-in-the-calendar primary. Meek hasn’t raised enough money to both self-define and attack Rubio, and he can’t count on the DNC or DSCC to do the attacking when they’re playing so much defense and have other pickup opportunities that for the moment look more promising. I haven’t seen Meek’s fundraising numbers yet for the 1st quarter, but by November he needs to have raised and spent at least triple the 4.6 milliion he had banked at the end of 2009.
… I think his game has caught up to him. I have downplayed the chance that he would go Indie, but obviously, it is at least being pondered seriously.
The drop out and run in 2012 option is probably his best shot, provided the Tea ‘party’ is over by then. But even then, he is still the naked emperor, that no one will see ‘clothed’ again.
I wonder if Ken Buck in CO can make the kind of turn-around that Rubio did, now that he has the DeMint seal of approval. A big difference is that CO doesn’t have the equivalent of Jeb Bush. Still, it’s a possibility that Buck could catch the fancy of conservatives nationwide and give Jane Norton a real run for her money, if not beat her outright.
The Republican Party cannot tolerate one of their own not living up to proposed litmus tests. It was the case back in 1998 (Clinton impeachment), and it is true today.
Just a few years ago, Crist was a rising star within the GOP party. Now, no one wants to be associated with the Crist train. The Republicans are a bunch of fair weather fans.
The press release from the Quinnipiac University poll showing Crist as the leader was incorrect. (on purpose?)
“If Crist were to file as an independent for the general election, he would get 32 percent of the vote, compared to Rubio’s 30 percent and Meeks 24 percent.”
“”In a three-way general election:
Crist would get 30 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters;
Rubio would receive 64 percent of GOP votes, 5 percent from Democrats and 29 percent of independents:
Meek, a congressman from South Florida, would get 55 percent of Democratic votes, 15 percent of independents and no Republicans.””
Add it up yourself, these percentile totals show Rubio with 98, Crist with 95 and Meek with 70 out of a possible 300% (the balance DK/NA)
That equates to Rubio at 32.6%, Crist at 31.6% and Meek at 23.3% of the vote in a three-way race. Rubio would still be in the lead, indeed smaller but still ahead. Crist still can’t get a break.
You can see question 7 on the chart at Quinnipiacs site:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129…
If that’s true that means he has a tremendous room to grow.