• GA-Sen: Here’s some great news out of Georgia: we may actually score a late top-tier challenger in the Senate race. Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, who’s held that office since 1998, has been considering promotion opportunities (including, reportedly, not just this but also a GA-12 primary challenge), and it looks like he’s likely to pull the trigger on a run against Johnny Isakson. Isakson has had soft approval ratings, but has benefited from lack of much of a challenge (R.J. Hadley is the only announced Dem). A recent R2K poll had Thurmond losing to Isakson 53-26, but maybe that poll gave some encouragement to Thurmond in that he might be able to ride the surging Roy Barnes’s coattails a bit (and maybe also give a boost to Barnes, by driving up African-American turnout).
• NV-Sen: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal did another poll of the Nevada Senate, despite having issued one just a week ago. I’m not exactly sure why; perhaps they felt that, in the wake of Jon Scott Ashjian’s bad week (with revelations of the financial disaster in his personal life, as well as the kerfuffle about whether he even qualifies for the ballot), they needed to re-evalute. They also added another right-wing third-party candidate to the mix, Tim Fasano of the American Independent Party. Polling only on the Harry Reid/Sue Lowden matchup, they find not much has changed. Ashjian’s support has dropped, but that may have more to do with the addition of Fasano to the mix and the splitting of the hardcore no-RINOs crowd. They found Lowden 47, Reid 37, Fasano 3, and Ashjian 2. (Compared with last week’s 46-38, with 5 for Ashjian.) At least one thing is going right for Ashjian: he was just given the green light by a court to remain on the ballot for the Tea Party, despite the fact that he was still a registered Republican when he filed.
• NY-Sen: The search goes on for a challenger to Chuck Schumer, and the GOP may have a willing victim: George Maragos. You can’t fault Maragos for lack of ambition: he was just became Nassau County Comptroller at the start of the year, as part of the GOP’s comeback in Nassau in November, and he’s already looking to move up. Political consultant Jay Townsend has also floated his name for the race.
• WI-Sen: Beer baron (and former state Commerce Secretary) Dick Leinenkugel didn’t waste much time following Tommy Thompson’s rambling announcement of his non-candidacy; he issued a statement last night that sounds very candidate-ish, although the jist of it was to “stay tuned” over the next couple weeks.
• MN-Gov: Coleman endorses Rybak! No, relax, not Norm Coleman. Chris Coleman, mayor of St. Paul and an oft-rumored candidate himself last year, endorsed R.T. Rybak, mayor of the other Twin City (Minneapolis) for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
• CA-11: Here’s a race to keep an eye on. David Harmer, who performed above expectations in the CA-10 special last year, is doing well in the next-door 11th also. He raised $380K last quarter, outpacing Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney’s $286K.
• MN-06: Rep. Michele Bachmann rode the Crazy Train all the way to Moneyville, it looks like. She raised $810K in the first quarter, giving her $1.53 million CoH. If that number seems eerily familiar, it’s almost exactly what was reported by Alan Grayson, her lightning-rod bookend at the other end of Congress.
• MO-08: Sleeper candidate Tommy Sowers reported a nice cash haul ($295K for the quarter), and now it looks like he’s outraised incumbent GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson for the second straight quarter. She brought in only $223K.
• NC-08: One guy’s who’s lagging on the fundraising front — although it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, given the last four years of history — is Democratic freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (lauded, or notorious, depending on your perspective, for preferring to work on a shoestring budget). He raised only $72K for the quarter, giving him $326K CoH, as he was outpaced by self-funding GOP opponent Tim D’Annunzio.
• NV-03: Rep. Dina Titus may not be faring well in the polls against Joe Heck, but she’s whupping him in the cash department. Titus raised $254K last quarter and has $902K CoH, compared with $148K raised and $257K CoH for Heck.
• NY-24: There’s a less somewhere in here about keeping your base (you know, the ones holding the wallets) happy. Rep. Mike Arcuri’s fundraising wasn’t that impressive for a competitive race, as he raised $208K, leaving him with $493K CoH. He was outpaced by GOP rival Richard Hanna, who raised $358K (and reports the same amount as CoH).
• OH-15: Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy had a good quarter, raising $308K. It still wasn’t enough to top her GOP competition, Steve Stivers, though; he reported $367K for the quarter.
• PA-10: Here’s a loudly-touted GOP candidate who’s not living up to the hype yet. Ex-US Attorney Tom Marino’s first quarter was unimpressive, raising $111K and ending up with $74K CoH. Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Carney sits on $665K CoH.
• PA-12: The DCCC is getting involved in a big way in the 12th, laying out $136K for ad time in the special election in the 12th. The ad is a negative ad against the GOP’s Tim Burns. Also, while he has a small cash edge over Dem Mark Critz right now, it’s fitting that, given his name, Mr. Burns is self-funding his campaign. Of the $325K raised by his campaign so far, $221K has come from his own pocket.
• VA-11: It looks like this is going to be a big money race all around. As the gear up for the GOP primary, Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity and rich guy Keith Fimian are engaged in a tiresome spin battle about who has more money. Herrity raised $275K despite a late entry during the quarter and has $195K CoH, while Fimian raised $278K and has $609K CoH. Rep. Gerry Connolly can marshal his resources for the general; he bested them both, raising $446K and sitting on $1.04 million CoH.
• WV-01: Mike Oliverio, running in the Democratic primary, had a big quarter: he raised $240K and has as much cash on hand as Rep. Alan Mollohan.
• NY-AG: Former Rep. and NYC controller Elizabeth Holtzman looks poised for yet another comeback; she’s released an internal poll showing her with a big lead in the Democratic AG primary, which, while she’s not running yet, isn’t the usual action of someone who doesn’t plan to run. Her poll finds her at 29%, with Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice in second at 9%.
• DNC: Someone at the DNC seems to know what to do: they’re pledging to spend $50 million on cash and field operations for the 2010 midterm. They say there’s going to be a big emphasis on base turnout (youth, African-Americans and Latinos, first-time voters); in other words, they understand they need to rebuild the Obama coalition as much as possible to limit losses in November.
While it doesn’t sound as sexy as it sounds, Meek ostensibly could get 35% of the vote in a three-way race.
In that scenario, I’d peg Rubio at 33% and Crist at 32%.
My prediction:
Meek 35
Rubio 33
Crist 32
If this is true, would be great to have a top-flight challenger in that race.
A Barnes/Thurmond combo at the top of the ticket would have a great deal of appeal.
Finally, something in my gut tells me that we should be ready for something unexpected to happen in this race. Johnny Isakson has never really established the kind of solid hold on this seat that he should — his favorables are so-so, and the hard right of the Republican party never has totally loved or trusted him (I still fantasize about a tea-bagging primary from Representative Paul Broun). And, given the somewhat significant health problems he has faced recently, the possibility of Isakson dropping out late (the Republican equivalent of Evan Bayh) doesn’t seem entirely out of the question.
Odds are heavy against winning this seat, but I still love to hear that we might have a very credible challenger as the Democratic nominee…
(And if Thurmond doesn’t opt to run, my personal dream would be Leah Ward Sears, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice – assuming she isn’t nominated to SCOTUS — but I know better to believe that she would jump into the race.)
Where on Earth did the challenger get all that money? It’s not an area where raising a quarter-million quickly is easy – much less raising it against a veteran incumbent.
Coleman seemed poised to jump into the race and was probably going to; a college friend was in place to become his finance director after he won re-election in the mayoral. That along with a few other big hires for an easy re-election to mayor.
Rybak had told everyone, including myself, he wasn’t going to run for both mayor and governor, but it was pretty obvious he wanted to do both. He just didnt see it as feasible at the time, but was very clearly wrong considering the position he is in.
So once Rybak figured he could do both and be competitive, Coleman having less experience, being from the smaller town (less delegates to scrounge up), and would be running on the same themes (both have worked extensively during their times on building up their respective downtowns, advocating for mass transits projects and neighborhood revitalizion, or creation even.) Makes sense that he’s endorsing him then, they’ve both had extremely similar goals as mayors.
KY-03
Jeffrey Reetz (R) – $52k raised + $100k loan, $117k on hand
KY-06
Andy Barr (R) – $106k raised, $350k on hand
LA-02
Joe Cao (R) – $101k raised, $309k on hand
MA-05
Jon Golnik (R) – $26k raised + $100k loan, $133k on hand
MA-10
Jeff Perry (R) – $151k raised + $5k loan, $135k on hand
MD-01
Frank Kratovil (D) – $247k raised, $1.03m on hand
ME-01
Chellie Pingree (D) – $241k raised, $258k on hand
Dean Scontras (R) – $84k raised, $52k on hand
MI-07
Mark Schauer (D) – $398k raised, $1.44m on hand
MI-09
Gary Peters (D) – $390k raised, $1.7m on hand
Rocky Razckowski (R) – $212k raised, $140k on hand
Paul Welday (R) – $63k raised + $30k loan, $265k on hand
MI-15
John Dingell (D) – $137k raised, $617k on hand
Bob Steele (R) – $102k raised, $87k on hand
MO-03
Ed Martin (R) – $203k raised, $479k on hand
MO-04
Ike Skelton (D) – ? raised (report not working), $1.23m on hand
Bill Stouffer (R) – $43k raised, $271k on hand
MS-01
Travis Childers (D) – $220k raised, $700k on hand
Angela McGlowan (R) – $38k raised, $16k on hand (so much for the
teabagger candidate)
Alan Nunnelee (R) – $150k raised, $295k on hand
NC-07
Mike McIntyre (D) – $84k raised, $828k on hand
Ilario Pantano (R) – $103k raised, $80k on hand
NC-08
Harold Johnson (R) – $60k raised + $240k loans, $308k on hand
Hal Jordan (R) – $58k raised + $8k loans, $44k on hand
NC-13
Brad Miller (D) – $151k raised, $284k on hand
Bernie Reeves (R) – $121k raised, $26k on hand
OH-01
Steve Driehaus (D) – $300k raised, $940k on hand
Steve Chabot (R) – $246k raised, $802k on hand
OH-09
Richard Iott (R) – $9k raised + $390k loans, $179k on hand
OH-10
Dennis Kucinich (D) – $159k raised, $141k on hand
Peter Corrigan (R) – $13k raised + $90k loans, $97k on hand
OH-12
Paula Brooks (D) – $280k raised, $501k on hand
OH-15
Steve Stivers (R) – $350k raised, $793k on hand
OH-16
Jim Renacci (R) – $228k raised, $328k on hand
OH-18
Bob Gibbs (R) – $84k raised, $143k on hand
OR-01
David Wu (D) – $162k raised, $501k on hand
Stephan Brodhead (R) – $5k raised + $171k loans, $298k on hand
OR-05
Kurt Schrader (D) – $229k raised, $700k on hand
Scott Bruun (R) – $110k raised, $203k on hand
PA-03
Paul Huber (R) – ? raised, $298k on hand
Mike Kelly (R) – $53k raised + $165k loans, $190k on hand
PA-04
Jason Altmire (D) – $280k raised, $1.19m on hand
Mary Beth Buchanan (R) – $68k raised + $50k loans, $102k on hand
Keith Rothfuss (R) – $84k raised + $50k loans, $132k on hand
RI-01
John Loughlin (R) – $98k raised, $188k on hand
SC-05
Mick Mulvaney (R) – $133k raised, $207k on hand
SD-AL
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) – $183k raised, $443k on hand
Richard Blake Curd (R) – $140k raised, $186k on hand
UT-02
Jim Matheson (D) – $261k raised, $1.43m on hand
VA-01
Rob Wittman (R) – $115k raised, $453k on hand
VA-02
Glenn Nye (D) – $363k raised, $1.1m on hand
Ben Loyola (R) – $12k raised + $226k loans, $92k on hand (note: Loyola
seems to loan himself money and immediately pay it back to himself to
artifically inflate his fundraising numbers)
Bert Mizusawa (R) – $145k raised, $286k on hand
WA-02
Rick Larsen (D) – $210k raised, $677k on hand
John Koster (R) – $169k raised, $100k on hand
WA-03
Craig Pridemore (D) – $75k raised, $51k on hand
WA-08
Suzan Delbene (D) – $226k raised, $839k on hand
WI-03
Dan Kapanke (R) – $154k raised, $213k on hand
WI-07
Dave Obey (D) – $438k raised, $1.4m on hand
Sean Duffy (R) – $219k raised, $339k on hand
WV-01
Alan Mollohan (D) – $363k raised, $281k on hand
David McKinley (R) – $193k raised + $100k loans, $279k on hand
WV-03
Nick Rahall (D) – $212k raised, $1.53m on hand
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04…
LA is one of the lowest respondnats (NM is the worst). yep, they’re losing a seat.
Eat your effing heart out, Sarah Palin….
He is the Democratic nominee in Missouri’s 8th District, a local boy from Rolla who spent 11 years in the Special Forces and served two tours in Iraq, apparently likes to hunt, and is also a college professor with advanced degrees in public policy from the London School of Economics.
He also did a “Boots on the Ground” tour of all 28 counties in the 8th, working alongside folks at their farms and small businesses in each one, in his truck, with his Rhodesian Ridgeback named Chuck.
It. Was. Adorable. Don’t try to deny…
Btw, I am not associated with his campaign in any way–I just think he’s one of the best candidates, sleeper or no, on Team Blue this cycle–and he has jumped to somewhere at/near the top of the list of candidates who will get a campaign donation from me this cycle (thanks to Obama, I’m getting a big tax return this year! Hooray!).
Pic Source: http://www.semissourian.com/st…
And seriously, he just tweeted about a biker rally, where someone snapped a pic of him appearing to be in a deep policy discussion with this bad-ass, kinda-scary-looking biker dude. The biker rally is in his Twitpics, which are actually really good, as are his web operations overall. Despite my deep hatred of Twitter, I have to say that his campaign is using it correctly.
Twitpics: http://twitpic.com/photos/sowers
PS-I’m really hoping I didn’t screw that picture up…it looks totally good in the preview, but I have a habit of screwing up pictures when posting to this site…sorry in advance if I did so again.