Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (4/28-5/1, likely voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (D): 48
Joe Sestak (D): 42
Undecided: 11Dan Onorato (D): 41
Anthony Williams (D): 8
Joe Hoeffel (D): 6
Jack Wagner (D): 5
Undecided: 40
(MoE: ±5%)
“Closing” might be an overstatement for Joe Sestak, as this is the first poll Muhlenberg (go Mules!) has done for the Democratic primary so there aren’t trendlines. Still, there was a Rasmussen poll that had Sestak within 2 of Arlen Specter last month, and the Pollster regression line shows some definite signs of life for Sestak. The question is whether the upward movement is coming too late, with the primary in two more weeks.
Contrast that with the Dems’ gubernatorial primary, where Dan Onorato’s trajectory has taken flight in the last month. Onorato’s opposition has struggled to emerge from the low teens, and now they’ve all fallen back into the single digits. Even though 40% of the electorate is still undecided about this one, that’s actually the lowest undecideds ever in the Dem primary so far.
With either a Specter or Sestak win. I mean, if Sestak can take out such a strong incumbent, I’m going to guess he has the strength to do the same to his GOP challenger. If Specter wins, well, he is an incumbent and PA seems to like him enough, it’s just the right wingers who hate him.
But I haven’t paid attention to PA-Gov at all. Who is Dan Onorato and are we happy he’s apparently looking like a lock for the nomination?
Specter has basically went negative as possible on Sestak and I think we are seeing some blowback. I really want to see some regional breakdowns of this race. From what I saw a few months ago, Specter was crushing out west and Sestak was running strong in the SEPA suburbs. I am curious if this is still true. The last poll I saw with a regional breakdown in the general election showed Specter performing poorly in the SEPA suburb. I wonder how this corresponds to the primary.
fact that the Senate primary appears to be very competitive can only help Critz’s chances. I’m very glad of this. I’m surprised Hoeffel is doing so poorly; I thought he was a favorite behind Onarato. As for the Senate I think Specter going negative was a huge mistake, it has not worked for him and he may lose his job over it. I’m not sure who I prefer in the Senate to be honest. I always liked Specter a lot before the switch, but he has been going really nasty and I almost think a fresh face would be nice. Anyone have insight on who is best to bring victory to team blue come November from PA natives?
to make a sane, respectful concession speech.
Toomey’s toast after that.
He is only statewide elected official (auditor) in the Democratic primary and he is getting a hilarious 5% of the vote. That’s what happens when you have no argument for your candidacy.
Onorato is my second choice after Hoeffel. Williams money comes almost entirely from charter school advocated, which reflects badly on his campaign in my opinion. I do not like single-issue candidates. Wagner is a boring conservadem’s conservadem. Onorato is a charismatic young Democrat and Allegheny county executive. Not a bad choice, but I worry that Corbett will have a head start in the southeast over Onorato.
I live in Philly, so I’ve been keeping up with this stuff. Wagner and Hoeffel have raised almost no money (Hoeffel has about 100k in the bank and Wagner has about 600k). PA ads are expensive and you can’t win here without ads, so those two have been toast as a result. Williams raised 1.5 mil from 3 guys who have a strong stake in the casino industry, under cover of supporting school choice, and has been advertising heavily for a couple of weeks now. He just released a negative ad against Onorato today, but I haven’t seen it yet. Suffice to say, this race is over.
I’ve been volunteering for Sestak a little on the weekends, so I’m a little biased, but I think he’s a somewhat stronger nominee. I always kind of liked Specter as a Republican, but I don’t trust him at this point. Sestak’s name recognition has gone way up in the past few weeks; when I first started phone banking 3 or 4 weeks ago, at least half the people I called had never heard of him. Now, everyone has at least heard of him and most even know a thing or two about him.
Sestak debated Pat Toomey on the economy about a month ago and Toomey attacked Sestak for Obama’s spending while Sestak attacked Toomey for Bush’s spending. Toomey attempted to distance himself from Bush’s record by pointing to a few token votes against his party. It occurred to me that night that Arlen Specter is the one person who has voted for every major spending initiative in both administrations. If Toomey can distance himself from the Bush-era spending, he can hit Specter for voting for everything from Medicare Part D to the stimulus and the health care bill.