The latest Rasmussen Iowa poll shows five-term incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley still over 50 percent against all Democratic challengers, but with a smaller lead than he had earlier in the year. Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely Iowa voters on April 29, giving a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Survey questions and toplines are here.
Roxanne Conlin is the Democrat who gives Grassley the narrowest lead, 53 percent to 40 percent. Grassley led Conlin 55-36 in Rasmussen’s previous Iowa poll, taken in mid-March. Rasmussen’s summary notes that Grassley “now leads Conlin by only five points among women.”
Many politically active Iowa Democrats believe Conlin can help Governor Chet Culver and our down-ticket candidates if she motivates high turnout among women. I also know many women who plan to volunteer for Conlin’s campaign. She has already held campaign events in all 99 Iowa counties.
Grassley leads Democrat Bob Krause by 57 percent to 31 percent, the same as in Rasmussen’s March poll. He leads Tom Fiegen by 57 percent to 30 percent, a slightly smaller margin than his 57-28 lead in March.
This race is still Grassley’s to lose; Rasmussen finds 63 percent of respondents have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the incumbent, while only 34 percent have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion. The corresponding numbers for Conlin are 44 favorable/30 unfavorable.
However, a few stumbles by Grassley could make this race highly competitive in a hurry. At the very least Conlin is going to make it a lot closer than any other Democrat has against Grassley in the last 25 years.
I expect Conlin to have little trouble winning the Democratic primary on June 8. Not only is she the best-known candidate, she out-raised Grassley in the first quarter and had about $1 million cash on hand as of March 31. According to FEC reports, Krause had $352 and Fiegen had $582 on hand at the end of the first quarter.
UPDATE: Rasmussen’s numbers on the governor’s race continue to point to a tough road ahead for Governor Chet Culver. He trails former Governor Terry Branstad 53 percent to 38 percent, little changed from Branstad’s 52-36 lead in Rasmussen’s March poll. Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver 45-41 in the new poll, up from a 42-40 lead in the March poll. Culver is barely ahead of Rod Roberts in the new poll, 43-41, little changed from the 40-38 lead Culver had against Roberts in the previous poll.
It’s not encouraging for an incumbent to be stuck around 40 percent against all challengers. Culver needs to bring up his own numbers and get out there to tell voters about his administration’s successes. For a preview of the case Culver will make with Iowa voters, watch his appearance on Chuck Todd’s MSNBC program last week.
Assuming Branstad will be the Republican nominee, Culver’s campaign will have to take him on aggressively. The race is bound to tighten up, but as long as Branstad is polling above 50 percent the odds are against Culver. Perhaps the governor can needle Branstad and provoke the same kind of response Vander Plaats got during the second Republican debate.
in stepping up to bat against a huge douchebag like Chuck Grassley, especially since the CW is that he’s unbeatable.
As much as Scott rigs his polls to favor Rethug candidates and Rethug talking points, he’s had a few outliers that actually favored Dems, too.
What he has the least of is polls that pass the smell test and don’t stand far outside what other polls say.
I don’t doubt that Conlin on election day can keep Grassley under 60, and as long as she has the money I expect her to break 40 and keep him under 60.
But I just don’t trust Rasmussen.
Oh, and in case you want a specific data point to question, look at the favorables for everyone but Grassley: way too few undecideds. Rasmussen has 55% claiming to have an opinion of Fiegen, 60% having an opinion of Krause, and a whopping 83% having an opinion of Conlin. Those numbers are laughable. In reality I doubt there are 20% of November voters who even recognize Fiegen’s or Krause’s names. And Conlin has been absent from public life for way too long for such a large supermajority to have an opinion of her, if she hasn’t already been on the air or Grassley hasn’t actively attacked her.
…and that will cost him a little in the general. But given he was in FAR more danger from a right-wing challenge (especially given his sparring not too long ago with the christian right) it was the smart thing to do. Even if obviously saying Obama wanted to kill Grandma in the middle of him supposedly negotiating a compromise on health care with Obama was both jarring and uncouthed. But he’s no stranger to sudden shifts and has had across the board ratings from folks such as ACU.
In a better year this might’ve cost him. Unfortunately this isn’t a very good environment for Democrats. That said I’m glad to have someone such as Conlin in there to take advantage if he makes any misteps. And hey. You never know.
As far as Rasmussen I take their good news with just as much a grain of salt as their bad news. I just don’t trust their methodology. They’ve had far too many outliers for my comfort.
I’d love to see a pattern of one crazy old, borderline-senile Republican coot who’s been in the Senate since Jesus was in diapers losing every cycle. In 2006 it was Burns, 2008 was Stevens, 2010 can be Grassley’s turn, and 2012 can be the year we finally smoke out Lieberman (who seems to believe that not only was he around at the same time as Jesus, he was the one who had Jesus apprehended as a suspected terrorist in the first place.)
Obviously the odds of Conlin pulling off an upset are slim, but IA-Sen is the one longshot Dem pickup I’m still hopeful about. If anyone can do it, it’s Conlin.
If Conlin can make up the national Dem enthusiasm gap at the state level and blunt Brandstad’s momentum in the process, both races could go down to the wire. (As it is, though, I think Culver’s probably toast. I just want to see Grassley go down with him, as improbable as that sounds.)