Ben Smith reports that senior White House officials and DCCC staffers are circulating new polling numbers showing Ed Case in a much better position than Colleen Hanabusa in the May 22nd special election to fill the seat of ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie:
The White House and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee see former Rep. Ed Case as a stronger candidate than State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa in a race that has divided Democrats. Hanabusa has the support of much of the state’s establishment, including both senators and key labor unions. […]
Harstad’s poll is the latest weapon in intense efforts to push Hanabusa out of the race, or at least move some of her institutional supporters to Case’s side.
“It is clear from this data — as from all the public polling – that Ed Case is the best chance that our party has of holding on to that seat,” said a senior White House official. “Given where Hanabusa is in al of this research, one has to be concerned about what the likely out come is if the dynamic remains unchanged.”
There are “a lot of conversations” under way between Washington Democrats and Hanabusa’s key supporters, the official said, though the official declined to make the White House’s goal explicit.
Am I the only one tired of these scaredy-cat blind quotes from anonymous “senior White House officials”? I hope someone asks Gibbs about this at his next presser. In any event, based on this memo, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the DCCC go all in for Ed Case pretty soon.
Harstad Research for the DCCC (4/26-28, likely voters):
Charles Djou (R): 36
Ed Case (D): 34
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 20
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
The full polling memo is available below the jump.
I would HOPE to see Hanabusa drop out of the special, even though her name would remain on the ballot, encourage her supporters to vote for Case while going full on ahead for the primary and general.
Remember what Nick Lampson did after Tom DeLay resigned? He refused to run in the special election for 2 months of congress time and went full on only focusing on the general. I would like to see Hanabusa do this. Besides, if Case is in DC, that’s time he’s NOT campaigning for the general/primary. Ambercrombie resigned for a reason, y’know. 😉
Among “likely voters” as identified in the first sentence, its D36-C34-H20. Yet in the second bullet point they identify “most likely voters” (whatever that means) and its D39-C31-H20.
Any idea what’s up with that?
Am I the only one tired of these scaredy-cat blind quotes from anonymous “senior White House officials”?
Ah, but that’s how reporting works at Politico.
Sigh, I don’t want Case near Congress, but at the end of the day I don’t want a Djou win. I think everyone here knows that I supported Hannabusa, and very much opposed born again liberal Case. However if Djou wins now don’t think he won’t win in November. That is just foolish, he very much could win in November and he could a good candidate statewide a few years down the road. The guy is fairly young, and I don’t want him near the Senate. If this poll is correct Hannabusa needs to drop out. I don’t care if her name is on the ballot, she can still tell her voters to support Case. The WH could make a deal for her to. They could talk Abrecrombie or Muffi into giving her LG, then offering full backing on a future Senate run. It will look horrible symbolically if we lose this seat and Pa at the same time. While I can’t think of much we can do for fix PA it is clear that this is still very winnable, and we can’t let the Republicans get this momentous win, we just can’t.
I guess if Case sweet talks Hanabusa into unofficially supporting him in the next couple of weeks, it’s part of the process. I don’t have to like it to accept it, and I feel like I’ve been accepting a lot of crap lately.
Make it 50% or else a runoff. Or something else. But anything other than this ridiculous situation. Ugh.
From Jan ref http://www.starbulletin.com/ne…
Case 37%
Hanabusa 25%
Djou 17%
Undecided 21%
(moe 5%)
From early Apr ref http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…
Djou 32%
Case 32%
Hanabusa 27%
Undecided 9%
(moe unknown)
From Apr:11-14 (R2000), ref http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Djou 32%
Case 29%
Hanabusa 27%
(moe 4.5%)
From late Apr (23-28) – the Ward Research poll diaried earlier today http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Djou 36%
Case 28%
Hanabusa 22%
(moe 5.2%)
The new poll in this diary – also from late Apr (24-26: DCCC poll/Harstad)
Djou 36%
Case 34%
Hanabusa 20%
(moe 4.4%)
Taking the last two polls together, it looks like the DCCC poll confirms Djou at around 36%, Hanubasa at around 21%, and Case at some wild card number possibly close to Djou.
Big question – is there a methodology problem especially with either of the last two polls.
If not, can Case’s real current number be somewhere in between the last two polls? If so, that might indicate some movement from Hanubasa to both Djou and Case.
It’s a bit odd that women prefer Case over Hanabusa by such a large amount. Typically, women naturally tend to support other women.
I wonder if Hanabusa has a personality type that somehow rubs other women the wrong way.
If Hanabusa wants to be a member of Congress she would be crazy to drop out and endorse Case.
Her best case scenario is obviously winning the Special.
2nd Best scenario for her is for Djou to win the Special. Then she can go one on one with Case in a Dem primary with the HI Dem Machine angry at Case for his Senate primary and for spoiling the Special and allowing Djou to win. Then going one on one vs Djou in the general.
Worst case for her is a Case in in the Special. He could use his time as Congressman to mend fences with the HI Dem Party and take that institutional support away from Hanabusa in the primary.
If she wants to be a COngresswoman then she needs Case to lose the Special.
I’d almost rather Djou wins this than Case. We’ll dislodge Djou in time. Case however will linger like a bad smell until he decides to run for Senate again.
If Hanabusa comes in third, she’s finished politically. It will be some other ambitious Democrat who knocks Djou off down the road.
To get the desired result. The DCCC wants Case. Progressive Democrats don’t. This is not MS-1. The Democrat representing this district should be a progressive. I hope Hanabusa doesn’t get bamboozled by this poll. She should stay in, and I hope she does.
I love how it’s Hanabusa who is spoiling the race for Case, instead of the other way around. Ed Case is the one who endangered this seat by parachuting in, with his sense of entitlement, and ruined the race for a strong candidate who was in the race months before him and had already locked up all the local establishment support. Just because he polls higher than Hanabusa in the 3-way (probably due to name recog), that does not mean Hanabusa could not win the race easily without Case in the way.