FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.
IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That’s because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his “primary residence” from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so… but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his “permanent residence,” enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I’m wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it’s either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!
IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it’s becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.
NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.
PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.
VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA’s latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.
NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error – they don’t even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you’ll have to click the link.
SSP TV:
KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they “don’t know what planet Rand Paul is from” when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson’s behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
NV-03: Grr… Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!
Independent Expenditures:
CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter
Ben Smith reports that senior White House officials and DCCC staffers are circulating new polling numbers showing Ed Case in a much better position than Colleen Hanabusa in the May 22nd special election to fill the seat of ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie:
The White House and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee see former Rep. Ed Case as a stronger candidate than State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa in a race that has divided Democrats. Hanabusa has the support of much of the state’s establishment, including both senators and key labor unions. […]
Harstad’s poll is the latest weapon in intense efforts to push Hanabusa out of the race, or at least move some of her institutional supporters to Case’s side.
“It is clear from this data — as from all the public polling – that Ed Case is the best chance that our party has of holding on to that seat,” said a senior White House official. “Given where Hanabusa is in al of this research, one has to be concerned about what the likely out come is if the dynamic remains unchanged.”
There are “a lot of conversations” under way between Washington Democrats and Hanabusa’s key supporters, the official said, though the official declined to make the White House’s goal explicit.
Am I the only one tired of these scaredy-cat blind quotes from anonymous “senior White House officials”? I hope someone asks Gibbs about this at his next presser. In any event, based on this memo, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the DCCC go all in for Ed Case pretty soon.
Harstad Research for the DCCC (4/26-28, likely voters):
Charles Djou (R): 36
Ed Case (D): 34
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 20
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
The full polling memo is available below the jump.