SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.
  • IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That’s because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his “primary residence” from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so… but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his “permanent residence,” enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I’m wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it’s either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!
  • IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it’s becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.
  • NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.
  • PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.
  • VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA’s latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.
  • NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error – they don’t even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you’ll have to click the link.

    • SSP TV:

    • KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they “don’t know what planet Rand Paul is from” when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
    • WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
    • IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson’s behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
    • NV-03: Grr… Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!

    Independent Expenditures:

  • CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter
  • A massive stack of DCCC outlays:

    • 242 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition)”

    1. I ask why no news for Senate and Governor races? No news worthy for the daily digest?

      FL-8 Has anyone heard of the polling company that polled this race? Never heard of them until this day. Anyways with how hard Grayson is attacking Webster I doubt he’s down by 7. So I have to take this poll with a grain of salt due to how the results and since I have no idea who the pollster is.

      VA-5 I have a very hard time believing SUSA’s numbers since there have been various polls taken since the last time SUSA have polled this race and none of them showed Hurt by over 20, just around 2 or so points. Guess that why this poll dosen’t get it’s own thread.

      PA-8. Great you found the toplines for that poll.

      Since the NRCC provided little info to the internals I won’t bother to read them.

    4. is a 4-point spread against Kratovil and 5 against Nye?  Really?  And here I had Kratovil losing by 5-10 and Nye by double digits.  I’m shocked that the NRCC sees them as that close.

      Oh, and I love low they say the generic ballot shows double-digit leads for Republicans in these districts.  I’m sure that’s going to scare Kratovil, given that Obama lost by 14 points in his district at the same time he was pounding Andy Harris in 2008.

    8. How many Republican challengers are as lucky as Ben Lange? The American Future Fund is going to spend a million dollars against Bruce Braley. Braley thought he had a 6-1 money edge against a challenger with no name recognition. Now he may get outspent by the American Future Fund.

      The district is D+5. Braley outperformed Obama in 2008, but his opponent didn’t have money for a real campaign. Culver and Conlin are down by a lot statewide, but I don’t know how far they are down in IA-01.

    10. Kasich 50 Strickland 42

      http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

      I know, I know, it’s Ras and their FOX poll from yesterday showed it closer, but it’s still good news to me as Kasich is my favorite of this years Gov candidates.  I expected the race to tighten and I’m sure it has, but this poll makes me think that it didn’t tighten as much as was suggested by the last few polls.  All the same, I’ll wait for another poll to confirm this one.

    11. The two are distinct and not mutually incompatible legal categories. Primary residence for tax purposes means he spent the majority of the year there. Intangibles like community connections, voting registration, etc. aren’t important. Permanent residence for voting purposes means he intends to make that place his home. Intangibles like community connections, voting registration, etc. are important.

      It’s pretty irresponsible for SSP to accuse him of anything illegal or unethical. He probably worked in downtown Chicago full-time and only commuted home during weekends.

    15. All the pundits are calling this a devastatingly good attack on Crist, and they’re right.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

      This is a smart move by Meek.  His one shot is to unify Dems and Dem-leaners behind him and have Rubio and Crist split Republicans.  This ad is perfect for that strategy.

      Honestly, if Meek can make this stick and move numbers, I cannot completely write off his chances anymore.

      This cycle has been so weird, with conventional wisdom turned on its head so many times in so many races all year, that I don’t dare say anymore that “Meek has no chance” as I had been saying.

    20. Senate: Republicans gain 8

      Republican pickups (8): AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI, WV

      House: Republicans gain 34

      Republican pickups (39): AR-01, AR-02, CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, ND-AL, NH-01, NH-02, NM-02, NY-19, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11, WA-02, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08

      Democratic pickups (5): DE-AL, FL-25, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02

      Governors: Republicans gain 6

      Republican pickups (13): IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, WY

      Democratic pickups (7): CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, RI, VT

    21. National Journal just released it’s up to date look at which house seats are most likely to flip:

      1.TN-6

      2.NY-29

      3.LA-3

      4.AR-2

      5.DE-1 (dem)

      6.LA-2 (dem)

      7.TX-17

      8.CO-4

      9.VA-5

      10.IL-11

      11.PA-3

      12.FL-24

      13.KS-3

      14.IN-8

      15.IL-10 (dem)

      16.OH-1

      17.OH-15

      18.MS-1

      19.VA-2

      20.TN-8

      21.FL-2

      22.PA-11

      23.AR-1

      24.WA-3

      25.AZ-1

      26.AZ-5

      27.ND-1

      28.PA-8

      29.FL-8

      30.MD-1

      31.OH-16

      32.NY-19

      33.CO-3

      34.WI-7

      35.MI-1

      36.PA-7

      37.NH-2

      38.MI-7

      39.HI-1 (dem)

      40.NM-2

      41.NY-24

      42.WV-1

      43.NH-1

      44.SD-1

      45.SC-5

      46.AZ-8

      47.NY-1

      48.IN-9

      49.OH-13

      50.WI-8

      51.IL-17

      52.GA-8

      53.WA-2

      54.CA-47

      55.MA-10

      56.NV-3

      57.CT-4

      58.CA-3 (dem)

      59.AL-2

      60.GA-2

    26. The topline today is ordinary:  Reid up 48-47 with leaners, 47-45 before pushing leaners.

      But internals are interesting on 2 things.

      First, favorables:  Reid is up to 48-50, his best in any poll perhaps in a couple years.  Angle is deeper underwater at 43-56 with a whopping 46% with a “very unfavorable” view of her.  Mason-Dixon’s biweekly track commissioned by LVRJ doesn’t show any movement upward in Reid’s favorability, but Rasmussen has showed Reid inching up for some time.

      Second, the racial breakdown in this Rasmussen poll is eye-popping.  Rasmussen queries on the respondents’ race with choices of “white,” “black,” and “other.”  Their non-white samples are often screwy, especially for “other,” so nothing unusual that they have “other” supporting Angle by an absurd 62-27 margin.  In reality Reid, not Angle, will win over 60% of “other” which in Nevada is mostly a large bloc of Hispanics.  But what is unusual is the white vote:  a 48-48 tie.  Keep in mind the crosstabs and turnout model show 74% of the 750-person sample was white, which means 555 white respondents.  The margin of error on that is roughly 4%, not too high at all.  So this subsample isn’t so bad.

      Conclusion:  if Reid is really flirting with a tie among white voters, he’s on track to win this running away.

    27. All of you probably remember when the Colorado Republican party almost convinced Dan Maes to drop out of the race, and there was a suggestion that there was something pretty bad in his background that hadn’t come out yet?

      I think this was it. Apparently he was fired from his job as a police officer in Kansas for tipping off the subjects of an investigation

      http://blogs.denverpost.com/th…

      Not that it matters, since Tacrendo seems to be taking over as the defacto Republican candidate. But for those (like me) who were wondering.  

    30. “Critical Insights” again.

      LePage and Mitchell now in a dead heat.  And the congressional races:

      In the race for Maine’s 1st Congressional District, voters supported Democrat Chellie Pingree over Republican challenger Dean Scontras, 54 percent to 26 percent. Pingree’s support had been 53 percent, compared to Scontras’ 29 percent in the past poll. The undecided pool in that race shifted only a little, from 18 percent in the last poll to 19 percent.

      And in the 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Mike Michaud’s support slipped from 48 percent to 44 percent, compared to Republican Challenger Jason Levesque’s increase from 28 percent to 32 percent. The undecided pool stayed unchanged at 24 percent.

      http://www.onlinesentinel.com/…

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