CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Dems See Some Erosion

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 49 (51)

Linda McMahon (R): 46 (45)

Undecided 4 (3)

(MoE: ±3%)

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 45 (50)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (41)

Undecided 12 (8)

(MoE: ±3%)

It does seem like that shiny object in Richard Blumenthal’s rear-view mirror is slowly getting larger and larger; the latest Quinnipiac poll of their home state has him only 3 points ahead of Linda McMahon and (barely) below the 50% mark. It doesn’t seem specific to the Senate race, though; there’s an even larger decline in the gubernatorial race, although, as with the Senate race, it seems like a chunk of that lost Dem support went to undecideds. The closing may have to do with McMahon’s saturation advertising as of late, although she may be running into the same problem as fellow self-funder Meg Whitman in trying to get to 50+1 in a blue state — she may be past the point of diminishing returns on ads (Qpac finds that, by a 56-40 margin, voters find her ads excessive and annoying).

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Richard Blumenthal (9/20-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52

Linda McMahon (R): 40

Undecided 5

(MoE: ±?%)

Not to worry, the Blumenthal camp was out yesterday with their own internal poll with reassuring numbers: a 12-point lead, with Blumie over 50. You might remember, though, the exact same thing happened last time Quinnipiac came out a few weeks ago, with Dems offering their own internal at the same time showing a better race. That was a DSCC poll by Hamilton Campaigns, so they aren’t really trendlines, but for argument’s sake, those results were 54-39 in favor of Blumenthal. That’s also a 3-point shift in McMahon’s direction, so that would tend to confirm some movement toward McMahon over the last few weeks — the real question, among the dueling polls, is how big the gap was before the movement.