Public Policy Polling (5/1-2, Kentucky Voters, 12/18-21/2009 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 34 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 42 (40)Jack Conway (D): 40 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 41 (42)Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (35)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (44)Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 42 (42)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
PPP shows a dramatically different picture of this race than recent Rasmussen polls have portrayed, with Paul clearly the weaker general election candidate for Republicans. Paul’s favorability rating among all voters has shifted from 26-23 in December to 28-35 now — likely the effect of Grayson’s attacks finding more resonance among the wider general election audience than the GOP primary electorate.
The problem, however, is that the leading Democratic candidate, Dan Mongiardo, is the least popular person in this four-man field with a favorable rating of just 24-36. Even with Mongiardo at the con, though, Paul’s candidacy should at least keep this one interesting.
Meanwhile, Rand Paul received a bit of help today from Jim DeMint, who broke his neutrality to endorse Paul to try to balance out the many DC Republicans who have lined up behind Grayson.
UPDATE: The Conway campaign has released a new internal poll conducted from Benenson Strategy Group (5/2-4, likely voters) showing Conway leading Mongiardo by 32-28, up from trailing Mongiardo by 22-37 in March. With leaners, Conway is ahead by 37-31 — and among those who know both candidates, Conway has a 50-30 lead. Spend it all, Jack!
Now Conway needs to spend some major cash to take the lead from Mongiardo.
I find this comment from the related thread to be quite cogent http://www.swingstateproject.c…
In essence, if the commenter is correct, this PPP poll way undercounted Louisville, which also happens to be Conway’s base.
Partisans on BOTH sides of the aisle have got to be frustrated by Kentuckians’ primary preferences. Grayson is clearly the better candidate on the republican side, and Conway the better candidate for the democrats. Yet the other candidate has been winning almost wire to wire in this contest.
Again, the only way in which we pick up KY is if Conway faces Paul. If Grayson wins the GOP primary, or if Mongiardo wins the DEM primary, it’s all but in the bag for Team Red. I suppose maybe, maybe Grayson runs a poor campaign and Conway could beat him, but in this environment that’s pretty unlikely. Mongiardo is a non-starter among base democrats, who won’t turn out for him in big numbers. Judging how these primaries are going so far, with progressive, state-centered/outsiderish democrats outperforming their poll numbers (primaries like NC-8, NC-11, OH-Sen), I don’t doubt that Conway could win this one.
that I will be totally ignoring this race if Dr. Dan wins the primary.
I’m not totally convinced that Paul will win the GOP nomination. The primary is fastly approaching, but a lot can happen in a short period of time. That being said, I hope Paul squeaks it out because the Dems will have a better chance of winning.
On the Democratic side, Conway or Dr. Dan could win the nomination. I’d prefer Conway because (a) he’s more electable and (b) I prefer his politics.
If its a Paul v. Dr. Dan race, I will hope like hell that Dr. Dan wins. Although I’m not a fan of Dr. Dan, he’s a heck of a lot better than a crazy-whack like Paul. I’d give Paul a slight advantage.
If it’s Paul v. Conway, I think we’ll see Paul have a modest lead at first, and then Conway will pick up steam and win this race. From what I’ve observed from Paul, he’s not a good fit for KY.
If Grayson wins the Republican primary, I think he’ll be a favorite against Dr. Dan and Conway. I’d say it would be likely retention against Mongiardo and lean retention against Conway.
First, to the uninitiated, YES Derby would effect evening calls. It happens at 6 30 and most people are at parties in this city. Imagine polling New Orleans during Mardi Gras.
Now what I found interesting in this poll is that Ron Paul gets only 6% in 2012 Pres primary while his son is winning over Trey Grayson.
This could indicate on both sides anti-establishment sentiment … something that won’t be helped by Mitch McConnell’s endorsement of TG or the connection between Dem Reps Yarmuth & Chandler and Jack. The fact that creepy Dr. Dan seems to be hated by the Democratic establishment could be serving him well. The problem is he’s hated because he’s a creep, not because he’s an “outsider.”
I wouldn’t count Dr. Dan out in the gernal vs. RP, but that’s only because of RP & his campaign.
Daniel Mongiardo 39
Jack Conway 32
http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi…
And Paul is way ahead.
This race just isn’t going the way I figured it would.
and the source of some of the strangest negativity out there.
Both Dem candidates can beat Paul, especially the more people learn about Paul. Both Dems are statewide officials. There negatives and weirdnesses are basically played out. To be kind, Paul has the potential to say or do something outrageous every day between now and the election.
Like most everybody here, I prefer Conway, but Mongiardo should be able to handle Paul too.
This one is like found money, and should remind everybody that having a decent candidate in every race is important because Team Red is very capable of screwing the pooch.
He has more money than Dr. Dan, and is far more electable. KY voters, please make the right choice in a few weeks.
I threw some coin at Conway a few weeks ago. His victory is the difference between able to chalk up another competitive seat and writing one off.