So says the Politico:
In a major blow to Democrats, House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey has told close associates that he will not seek re-election and an announcement of his plans is expected as early as Wednesday.
Obey had been expected to run for re-election in this D+3 district in Northwest Wisconsin, facing off against the winner of the GOP primary between Real World: Boston cast member (and Ashland County DA) Sean Duffy and ’08 nominee Dan Mielke. Obey won 61% against Mielke in 2008.
Obama won 56-43 here, but Kerry and Gore only scraped out meager 1-point wins. This is considered ancestrally Democratic territory, but the continued expansion of the Twin Cities exurbs is starting to have an effect.
The filing deadline is July 13th and the primary September 14th.
quitting b/c he is unsure Dems will maintain the majority in the House? His age or the likelihood of facing a potentially competitive reelection this year are also likely factors. Regardless of his reasons, bad news for the Dems.
Where is it now? Leans D, or tossup?
that is the most important thing as I’d many aspiring pols have been waiting for Obey to take a hike since he’s been there since ’74.
First rule of surprise is not be to…well, surprised. There’s got to be a decent bench of WI Dems itching and ready to go…we just need to think clearly, plan wisely and execute with precision.
Russ Decker, state senate majority leader. But he had a DWI arrest in 2005.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R…
Why cant you fucking wait one more cycle! Are these Democrats secretly working with the GOP or something? My gut feeling is that many of them dont want their careers ended with a big black mark like losing your last re-election; being remembered more like Phil Crane than Daniel Patrick Moynihan would be irritating to say the least. But not more irritating to me to see long-time Congressmen piss our away seats when they know they could tough it out for two more years and wait til 2012.
Darlene Hooley was a champ! (Retired in 2008 and said, I didnt want to do this my whole life so Im picking now to retire because this year will give the Democrats a better shot at retaining with the good political climate and with Obama at the top of the ticket.)
While I wish he would’ve waited until a better year to hit the exits, I understand his reasoning behind leaving after the death of his friends Murtha and Charlie Wilson. As someone else pointed out in this thread, Obey has been in Washington since Nixon was in the White House, so there’s going to be no shortage of well-funded Democrats in the district who want this seat. I just hope we can avoid a nasty primary.
While the Western part of the district is growing faster, the majority of the population lives in the Eastern portion of the district around Wausau. Sean Duffy, the main Republican challenger, w/ around 339k CoH and 500k raised as of 3/31 according to the latest FEC reports, is a DA from Ashland County in the far Northern part of the district. Oddly enough, that county went a whopping 67% for Obama and 63% for Kerry. More importantly, Ashland only had about 9k voters in 2008 and it is nowhere near the Wausau, as previously mentioned, the district’s main population center. If I were the Dems I would find a popular Wausau area pol and run with them.
This seat will definitely be moving to Toss Up on my house prediction board. I’m not sure whether to make it a republican pickup or not though, like I did with Stupak’s district. I probably won’t though, seeing as Stupak’s district has a republican PVI and this district is democratic leaning.
I’m very shocked that we’re less than 6 months out from election day and we’re still dealing with retirements. Isn’t it unusual for representatives to retire this late in the cycle?
One who’s been talked about here in the Eau Claire metro area is State Senator Pat Kreitlow from Chippewa Falls. Won his seat in 2006 by defeating Republican Dave Zien who had a loyal base but was very polarizing. Kreitlow was a longtime anchor on WEAU TV-13 in Eau Claire (the dominant TV station in western Wisconsin) from the late 90s until 2005, so many people from Wausau and west know who he is. Of course, he also has a tough re-election for his state Senate seat this year. He’s facing a former Assemblyman — Terry Moulton — who’s a somewhat moderate Republican and is a somewhat well-known business owner in the Eau Claire area (on the other hand, Moulton lost his own re-election bid in 2008). Kreitlow’s been rising quickly in the legislature, and has been a name thrown around in the past as an Obey successor, but I’ll be curious if the timing (potentially difficult re-election combined with maybe a tough year for a U.S. House race) keeps him in the state Senate.
We haven’t heard much about the GOP primary here – honestly, as far as I knew, it was a given that Duffy was going to get the nod. With an open seat contest, Mielke might get more aggressive now and set the stage for a rough and tumble primary.
Any chance that happens? And just how electable in the general is he, anyway?
Im afraid i cant give too insight on the candidates. But my state rep mary hubler, who has been in office since 84 just announced she was retiring from the assembly two days ago. I wonder if she might get in shes only 57 and for all i know she may have got advance notice that obey was retiring.
Also the twin cities exburbs only affect one county polk which has about 45k people, of course the whole district has alot of lakes where retirees from the twin cities and Illinois have homes.
Ann Hraychuck, Assembly, former Sheriff of tiny Polk County (where I scored my best % in the ’06 Senate Primary) might be strongest in the General, if not a favorite in a primary. She has the strongest pro-2nd Amendment record of any D in the Legislature, and a ‘tough broad’ demeanor which fits the District well.
Louis Molepski, Assembly, Stevens Point, young and ambitious. Super cautious in his first couple terms, I’m liking him a lot more the last couple years. He sponsored an Agricultural Hemp bill which passed the Assembly with a big bipartisan margin, but was never acted upon in the Senate before they closed up shop just over a week ago.
Gary Sherman (Assembly) Bayfield County would be my top choise, but not likely to run as he just took a Court of Appeals appointment.
Sen. Majority Leader Russ Decker would be the obvious early favorite, but I don’t know that he’d want to give up the top job in the statehouse for a junior slot in Washington.
If State Sen. Julie Lassa (who wouldn’t have to give up her seat) runs, I’ll be “anyone but,” in the Primary as she, more than anyone else, was responsible for burying our medical marijuana bill in the Health committee.
I’d be okay with Eau Claire County District Attorney Richard White, which says something given my bias against prosecutors.
Frank Boyle (Superior) left the Assembly a cycle back. he’d have been a sure candidate had Obey retired a few cycles back, now unlikely.
since Chris Van Hollen’s “oh, there may be one or two more retirements, but that’s all” statement back at the beginning of the year?
Definitely lean Dem, but it depends on who comes out of a multi-way primary, or if the field is cleared.
If the Republicans hadn’t found a good challenger like Sean Duffy, then Obey probably would’ve held on until a better cycle for the Democrats and saved his party hundreds of thousands of dollars. At worst, the GOP is forcing the DNC to defend yet another open seat. This race certainly wasn’t on anybody’s radar until a few months ago.
I’d call this toss-up/tilt Democrat.