Research 2000 for Markos Moulitsas’ Wonder Emporium (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/22-24):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (43)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (36)
Undecided: 19 (19)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 36 (47)
Bill Brady (R): 39 (32)
Undecided: 25 (20)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35
Bill Brady (R): 39
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 3
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
Lots of yuck here from Research 2000, who see both Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn’s fortunes slide. In the wake of Giannoulias’ family bank collapsing, his favorables have fallen from 49-34 in February to 38-46. It remains to be seen whether the worst is over in terms of the bad press that has consistently dogged Giannoulias for months like a set of nasty stink lines.
And as for those gubernatorial numbers… well, can anyone think of examples of incumbents who have polled in the 30s and survived in a general election (without a freakish third-party challenger muddying the waters)? Bill Brady may be wildly out of whack with his state, but 2010 could be just the type of year that allows a few nutters like him to slip through the cracks.
my last year in Illinois will be long and painful. After that I’m getting the hell out of here.
polled in the 20’s a couple months ago and is now leading in some polls. Jon Corzine polled in the 30% before the third-party challenger took off and ended up losing by only 3 points. I think there’s a lot of time left before the election, and we shouldn’t count out Pat Quinn just yet.
Also, I think appointed politicians are a special case. They tend to be either insanely popular (Jodi Rell, Sean Parnell) or have no residual popularity at all (Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, Jan Brewer). They don’t conform to the standards that normal incumbents do. They have to be given time to see how they fare in campaigns — look at Gillibrand’s steady ascendance for an example, or Brewer’s gains in popularity.
Admittedly Quinn’s numbers are pretty bad right now. But I think Brady’s at 39% for a reason. There aren’t right now enough anybody-but-Quinn voters to hand this election to a guy like Brady. When we start seeing Brady over 50%, a la Chris Christie, then I’ll start to worry. And I am worried about Giannoulias, because people have a real reason to dislike him and they genuinely like Kirk. But general malaise about politicians in general isn’t enough to make Illinois voters hand the state over to a guy like Bill Brady, in my view.
but shouldn’t you like these numbers if you’re Alexi? After getting hammered about Broadway, one would think Kirk should be up by more. Kirk is perceived as a moderate, and he’s from the Chicagoland area. I think Giannoulias can only go up from here.
Mark Kirk is a formidable Republican candidate. The fact that he has a 3 point lead (from this poll) in today’s environment in this blue state doesn’t surprise me. In addition, Alexi’s bad press has only strengthened Kirk’s position. I think once the bad press had died down, Alexi will surge again in the polls. I consider this race a pure tossup.
Quinn is in some trouble. If it wasn’t for Bill Brady, I would say he would be toast. Brady isn’t a good candidate, but right now it seems that Quinn’s lack of popularity may be enough for Brady to win. I’d give Brady a slight advantage in this race.
I posted a similar comment in a previous thread but it is pertinent to the discussion so I’m reposting most of the info.
The Kos poll has African Americans and Hispanics each making up 14% of the electorate, in 2006 both groups made up about 10% according to exit polls. On the bright side for the Democrats, the poll currently has about a third of each group undecided so both should break heavily Democratic. However, since they are currently overrepresented in the sample I would guess only a 1-2% increase in support for the Democratic candidates.
The real problem is with the over 60+ age set, in the poll they are 20% of the electorate but in 2006 they were 29% of voters! The elderly are one of the worst performing demographics for team blue so the spreads for Kirk and Bradley should probably be larger even with the 1-2% Dem increase from a high amount of minority undecideds.
Finally, the survey doesn’t include a green party candidate who is running for governor. In 2006, he garnered 10% of the vote. Considering Blago was running, I doubt that he reaches that level of support again, but if he is taking even 3% percent, in a close race, it makes a giant difference.