SurveyUSA (5/3-5, likely voters, no trend lines):
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 33
Tom Emmer (R): 41
Tom Horner (IP): 9
Undecided: 17Mark Dayton (DFL): 34
Tom Emmer (R): 42
Tom Horner (IP): 9
Undecided: 15Matt Entenza (DFL): 31
Tom Emmer (R): 42
Tom Horner (IP): 10
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.1%)
I have no doubt that this is going to be a very competitive race for the Republicans, especially considering the lameness of the Democratic field, but there are definitely some curiosities in this poll. Care to guess in which age bracket Republican Tom Emmer enjoys his largest leads over his Democratic opponents? If you guessed the 18-34 year-old bracket, you win a Jell-o mold in the shape of the state of Oklahoma. Emmer leads Kelliher by a whopping 51-23 among 18-34 year-olds, and by similarly lop-sided margins against Dayton and Entenza. We’ve seen this phenomenon in SUSA’s polls before, but this problem has been particularly exaggerated in Minnesota for some strange reason. (Just recall all those polls from 2008 showing Norm Coleman and John McCain being big hits with the kids.)
they’re super defensive about their LV model. Didn’t they write to SSP after polling Tim Bishop’s district?
I also followed the link from the 2008 election, and I find it funny that everyone wrote off Al Franken close to the election. People said that he was sucky candidate–one person said we should have devoted more attention to the campaign of Jim Martin.
A lot of the people who left those comments are people who I read a lot of on this site, so I think it’s a lesson that we should all be more optimistic about 2010 🙂
And… Go Al Franken!
Is it really possible for a Teabagger to win statewide office in MN? I mean, sure, they have a Republican Governor now, but I haven’t seen anyone say he’s run the state as an extremist.
… or not.
I take not that as a rejection of democratic candidates what continue in the race, I take this poll as an attack to all dems from Minnesota, and as an attack to our intelligence. SurveyUSA would very stupid and silly if give the numbers what show the manipulation, but here we have an atrocious cocktail mixed for damage to the dems from Minnesota.
These results mean N Coleman would crush all democratic runners for governor, and what tell about T Pawlenty. With these results Rybak would be back too, so this is an implicit attack to Rybak supporters too.
But we know T Pawlenty retires cause of his weakness against Dayton and Rybak in the polls (a risk for a future presidential bid), and N Coleman decides run not by the same reason, cause of his weakness, because he was back the democratic frontrunners in the polls.
After see this poll, the republicans what believe these results must be sad because the poll include not results about T Emmer against A Franken and A Klobuchar.
that SurveyUSA seems to have a rough time polling Minnesota for whatever reason. Their final pre-election poll from 2008 showed Obama only winning 49%-46%, which was hardly what happened, and Coleman winning by 5 points over Franken. And they were the ONLY poll in the entire cycle to show McCain WINNING Minnesota. This was in stark contrast to just about every other polling firm out there. Even Rasmussen was correctly showing a double-digit win for Obama in Minnesota.
I’m hoping this is what’s going on now too. Unfortunately, they didn’t do any approval ratings of Pawlenty, but given the national economy, it would seem he’d probably suffer in approvals just because the state of the economy is still recovering. And that normally shouldn’t help his party in the gubernatorial election.
It’d be great if DailyKos (hint, hint) or even Rasmussen (sigh, I know) would poll MN-Gov to get another data point on this.
Is there a way to adjust the Survey USA numbers to what we’d expect from 18-34 year-olds to see what a “normal” polling result would look like?