Public Policy Polling (5/8-10, North Carolina voters, 4/8-11 in parens):
Elaine Marshall (D): 42 (37)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)
Undecided: 15 (20)Cal Cunningham (D): 39 (35)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (43)
Undecided: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Interesting numbers out of North Carolina, showing both Democrats getting a boost after the first round of their primary battle. Both Marshall and Cunningham are still severely unknown at this point, underscoring just how much of a meekly-funded campaign the first round of this primary was. 66% have no opinion of Cunningham and 56% regard Marshall with a blank expression.
If the winner of this runoff can quickly marshal together some resources, this could turn out to be a race well worth watching.
Perhaps where both candidates are less well known, primary battles can only help name recognition?
In both cases, the polling suggests that the number of voters who would vote for Marshall or Cunningham over Burr is approximately double their favorability scores.
How quickly they can marshall resources. Neither Marshall or Cunningham has been a stellar fundraiser, and they’ve both been benifiting from the primary contest.
I know, a lot of people are going to cite the same talking point: Marshall is in better shape than Kay Hagen at this stage in the cycle. I continue to remain skeptical. Burr will have a great deal more resources, North Carolina is still a relatively conservative state (that barely voted for Obama), and even if the economy improves I still think the Republicans will have the wind at their backs.
In general, I’m more pessimistic about these races in areas where Obama either lost or barely won, while I’m more optimistic about the races in places where he won handily, such as Nevada and Illinois.
And of course, I hope to be proven wrong on this assesment regarding North Carolina.
Hi guys, I have long enjoyed this site and wanted to finally join and post. Jason from NH here.
With that out of the way… Does anyone else think that this could turn out be the best pick up this cycle? It seems to me that so much attention has been placed on MO and OH that this race seems to be overlooked… and given how weak Burr is, this could be a nice consolation prize for our (probable) losses in ND and DE…
Anyway, love the site and the discussions on here.
Jason
PPP now has NC-Sen a tossup. Rasmussen says the same on OH-Sen and corrobates tightening in NC-Sen. Rasmussen has the numbers flipped and Democrats clearly ahead in CT-Gov. Rasmussen now also has Sestak in a dead heat with Toomey. And those are just a few examples, there are plenty of others I’ve seen recently that show a clear trend in our favor in Senate and gubernatorial races.
It’s obvious that slowly but surely, voters are starting to calm down and feel just a little bit better. As long as the economy keeps getting better, and financial reform and any other serious legislative pursuits this spring and summer are accomplished, I think we’re going to hold both chambers. With smaller majorities for sure, and it will be harder to get stuff done in the 112th Congress, but we’ll at least have stopped the bleeding be able to savor avoiding 1994.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m still nervous, things could still turn against us yet again. But numbers don’t lie, and it’s starting to get better.
Money would be better spent here than on FL, NH, or KY. Not too mention the cash being thrown away trying to prop up/primary Lincoln.
but, this seat is cursed!!
Look at how Perdue’s numbers tanked right out of the gate.
I too was disappointed in Cunningham’s fundraising, but I think a lot of NC money is holding out for a nominee first. That would make sense after all, why commit now and possibly waste the contribution? What kind of ‘payback’ could Marshall or Cunnigham exact from someone holding out support? Nothing that I can see.
Once a nominee is choosen, i forsee a good fundraising quarter to follow, especially if it is Cunningham, since the DSCC is behind him.
As to whether NH or NC is a better target, I say it is pretty close, but I give the edge to NC. NH is overdue for a pendelum swing back toward the GOP. Plus, Hodes should be in much stronger shape, but he isn’t. I put NC third, (slightly) ahead of NH. MO and OH being basically tied for 1-2.
Kagen did at this point against Dole. Course there are different circumstances but that seemed like a small point for optimism. If we pick off NC, OH, NH, KY and MO then we might end up breaking even in the Senate.
Who was the last incumbent to be re-elected in this seat? I know this is the cursed seat, but this is probably the best shot its had of a re-lection in a long time. And the Dem is still in it!
Crazy history in this seat.
and the KY Senate seat this year. A younger, more attractive and less well-known (and disliked) candidate – Schellinger, Cunningham, and Conway is running against a better known and generally more disliked Democrat (Long-Thompson, Marshall, and Mongiardo).
It is hard for the lesser known democrat to win the primary but it is impossible for the better known democrat to win the general. These races are going to be hard to win and even if we get our best candidates, we’ll have a hard time winning, but I will have a lot more fun watching this fall if we put our best feet forward.