Charlie Crist is running as an independent! And he’s going to tank! But his running as a 3rd wheel helps Meek win a 3-way!
So the CW seems to go, at least on our side.
But, alas, I fear the numbers so far are telling a different story.
Polls right before and after Crist formally flipped to indy all said the same thing: Crist leads a 3-way. But don’t worry, Crist will tank. Even a couple of the pollsters themselves, whose own polls showed Crist surging, said forget it, he’s at his high water mark.
But, really, is he?
What no one seems to say or think, that I think and now say out loud, is no one predicted a polling BOUNCE for Crist upon his making the switch. People saw polls beforehand showing him competitive, but it’s clear his switch didn’t leave him merely “competitive” but shot him into the lead.
Did anyone really expect that? No one said so, at least, which makes me conclude no one expected it.
And lo and behold, that polling bounce comes from indies and Democrats, not from any Republicans. And it’s coming almost entirely at Meek’s expense, not Rubio’s.
So, alas, I’m left to conclude we seriously risk HI-01 The Sequal, with Charlie Crist starring as Ed Case, Kendrick Meek as Colleen Hanabusa, and Marco Rubio as our villain, Charles Djou.
Even if Crist slides, that still leaves Meek behind Rubio, which is where he’s consistently been in all polling.
We’re all enjoying this 3-way as campaign junkies, myself included. And I always hoped and at times thought a 3-way gives Meek a better shot at victory than a one-on-one in an anti-Democratic environment.
But Meek needs a dramatic shift that includes more than just Crist fading if we’re going to take this seat. And I fear that come election night, even the final weeks leading up to it, we might be regretting not having had a one-on-one here.
I can see Crist netting about 35% of Dems, but probably only 15-20% of Republicans MAX.
HI-01 is a heavily Democratic district that should have stayed D had there not been this bizarre jungle primary rule.
Florida is a swing state that, until a month ago, few people thought would even host a competitive election. I’ve always thought Meek had a better shot than most people gave him in a 2-way race, but the premise of this comparison is that this race should be the Democrats’ to lose. When that’s never been the case.
Rubio was narrowly favored to win the Senate seat before Crist switched, and I’d say he still is the narrow favorite today.
in a 2-way or a 3-way. If Crist had stayed in the primary and Rubio defeated him, which would have happened, Rubio would have had tremendous energy behind him. He would have become the man who beat the man, and the energy from that would have buried Meek in a two-way race. And remember we have a late primary here in FL, so there wouldn’t have been much time for Meek to recover.
Crist stole Rubio’s thunder by making the blockbuster move in the campaign himself. Now Meek is left standing in the shadows, with Crist taking a plurality of natural Meek voters and Meek’s already-low three-way standing dropping into the teens. And Charlie’s going to keep that plurality because that’s his strategy and he’s doing a damn good job of triangulating, as he always does. Meek can attack Charlie’s record, but most people see that record as pretty moderate, especially recently. So it’s a little hard for Meek to make big contrasts with Crist that will make Meek more popular with center-left and left Floridians. Also, Charlie’s lack of institutional backing and funding is overblown because he has universal name recognition. He does not need to build it. He only needs to spend to defend his record and attack his opponents.
I don’t want to pretend that I anticipated the Crist bounce. I didn’t. Nor did I anticipate Meek’s standing going DOWN. Now that I see those factors, I don’t see much of a path to victory for Meek, two-way or three-way.
As for the HI-01 analogy, I think it’s a good one. But HI-01 would have been winnable for Case if he had been strong enough to beat Hanabusa into relative irrelevancy. But Case was not a strong fundraiser, nor did he have the profile of a Charlie Crist. Here, Crist may be able to do what Case has failed to do, although it won’t be easy. But I don’t think Meek can win, period.
We value order and ideological homogeneity a lot more than Democrats do. I mean, we tossed Bob Bennett out last week for having very small ideological differences with mainstream conservatives. Imagine what we would’ve done with a Joe Lieberman.
Asking Republicans to vote for someone who betrayed the party is a very tall order. So Charlie Crist isn’t going to draw much Republican support. I’d say 15% max. Most of his support is going to come from Meek.
I think Greene’s presence actually helps Meek. So far, Crist/Rubio has sucked up all the air in this race. The Democratic primary will be the only thing contested and Greene is gonna spend a ton of money to try to win it. Meek’s fundraising has been strong, so he’ll spend a lot, too, and their ads will blanket the airwaves. That’ll force the media to focus more on Greene/Meek, which is a good comparison for Meek, since Greene’s background will make him look bad. The very voters that Crist is leading with, Democrats, will be the ones voting in this primary. With Crist not on the ballot, and Meek looking much better than Greene, most of these people will turn out to the polls to vote for Meek. That leaves Meek with the task of winning over voters who’ve already voted for him once, a much easier task.
I firmly believe that if Crist ever falls behind Meek in the polls, even if only by a point or two, he’s toast. The news will blow it up like it’s a big deal, and Meek will get a big bounce among Democrats immediately. That momentum will leave Crist mostly out of contention and most of his remaining Democratic supporters will flock to Meek as the more viable candidate. At that point, it’s anyone’s guess how this plays out between Meek and Rubio.
Anyway, that’s one man’s prediction for the next few months. Should be fun to watch.