Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Summer’s here and the time is right for fighting in the street.
141 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Dont vote on anything in the state legislature that may look bad! He is currently avoiding most budgetary votes, which are of course the biggies since we have a giant deficit to fix like most states.
Guess he wont be running as a tea-bagger in the GE, which is a bit of a downer.
Anyone know how the Tarryl Clark campaign is going? Does she have any momentum or any shot at taking out Mrs Lunatic? Any recent polling?
I think Sestak wins Conway goes to a recount and eeks it out, and Halter keeps blanche under 50% forcing a runoff.
PA
Sestak 52%
Specter 48%
KY
Conway 49%
Mongiardo 49%
AR
Halter 45%
Blanche 49%
Given Bennett’s surprising last weekend I’m wondering whether there were many other incumbents who should have been primaried this cycle. In particular, if potentially viable candidates, like Jason Chaffetz, should have entered. Off the top of my head Jeff Flake in Arizona would have provided a more legitimate opponent for McCain than Hayworth and Lisa Madigan would have mopped the floor with both Quinn and Brady.
I get to see Steve Poizner’s ad blanket my TV screen up here in the Bay Area:
It looks like Iowa will go first again in 2012, so I took a stab at handicapping the Republican field of likely presidential candidates. I think Romney will by and large skip Iowa and Pawlenty will inherit a lot of the 2008 Romney supporters. Not clear how many ways the social conservative vote will be split–that part of the base tends to dominate the caucuses.
Three of our 56 Democratic incumbents are facing primary challengers. I doubt any of the three will win, though. The one I have my eye on is a district in north-central Des Moines, where a conservative minister is running against the incumbent mainly on the gay marriage and abortion issues.
Iowa’s State Auditor David Vaudt endorsed Terry Branstad this week, but the Republican who was auditor during most of the time Branstad was governor before is co-chairing the Bob Vander Plaats campaign.
Long-shot candidate Rod Roberts started running tv ads. I still think this guy is in the race mainly to undercut Vander Plaats.
Chet Culver is formally kicking off his campaign next week. He, his wife and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge are doing events in 41 counties between May 17-21. Culver has been strangely absent from the campaign trail the last few months, although he has done official events around the state.
It’s disappointing that we haven’t gotten someone who’s generated enough traction to legitimately challenge a Congressman as bland and odious as Thad McCotter.
(Accidently called this place, “these boards”, god, I so dont miss message boards.)
Michelle Rollins won the GOP endorsement, 231-106 over Glen Urquhart
I’m from PA, so I’m of course going to be looking at the PA races. Onorato and Corbett seem heading towards a showdown (even though I, personally, will be voting for Joe Hoeffel), the Lt. Gov race seems extremely interesting. There are so many candidates on the Republican side that it’s impossible to make a prediction in that one. On the Dems, it will come down to Saidel, who has support in Philly and the surrounding area, and Conklin, who seems to have support almost everywhere else. Of course, everyone is watching the Senate race, which I think Sestak will end up taking. Still, it will be interesting to see if Specter’s name recognition pulls for him in the end.
I live in Elk County currently (PA-5, extremely Republican, sadly), but I’ve gone to school and have a secondary residence in Cambria County (PA-12). The PA-12 race will be extremely interesting, and will come down to voter participation. While the district is fairly Democratic, the Republicans in the area are energized, and have mobilized a Get Out The Vote campaign I’ve never seen from Republicans before. If the Dems go and vote, this race is Critz’. I’m worried, though.
From a far, I’m looking at a few races that are under the radar. HI-Gov Democratic Primary – Abercrombie has an edge, but it doesn’t seem as extreme as I would have guessed. Hanneman is actually polling within single digits of him. They both seem safe to win the general, however. Also HI-1 CAN’T fall in the hands of Republicans…and I don’t think it will as long as Ed Case walks out relatively unharmed.
DE-Sen – It seems like we’ve all but given up Joe Biden’s seat.
RI-Gov – Chafee seems to be on his way to becoming an Independent Governor. Honestly, even as a Dem…I’m rooting for him.
Sarah Palin just endorsed Susana Martinez in a five republican primary.
Because Florida’s election year is not crazy enough already….
Lawton “Bud” Chiles III, the 57-year-old son of the late governor, is seriously looking at running against Democrat Alex Sink for governor. He has been talking to friends and family across the state.
“He’s got some very strong convictions and a yearning for a Florida that was simpler and more about solving its problems than what we see today,” said his wife, Kitty Chiles.
And by episode, I mean 1 hour thing happening on Tuesday, the finaly Is an entirely different beast, longer and on a Sunday.
Next week is the worst week for me to have finals :'(
to make maps like alibguy does
has been officially chosen as the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Indiana. I can’t wait untill November.
just heard Arlen Specter on CNN saying that he would fully support Sestak if he beat him in the primary. Sestak wouldn’t say the same. I find it comforting to know that Specter will still be a team player if he loses. Bob Bennett was also a guess and to my pleasure he did not rule out a write in campaign.
some of the worst political commercials I have seen lately:
Let’s say a candidate’s website includes photos of the candidate with, say, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. To me that seems fair. Others might claim that is a dishonest way to make people think the candidate has been endorsed by Clinton or Obama.
Large movements in the final days have happened before in the Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary. In 2002, Ron Saxton went from first in the polls to finish in third place in the final few days.
BALLOT STANDING:
Alley 29%
Dudley 26%
Lim 10%
Sizemore 4%
Other 2%
Don’t know 29%
the trendlines are good for Alley. I have no info on the credibility of this particular poster. FWIW, their internals show Alley’s standing to be greater among “high propensity” R voters, aka, those more likely to vote.
At least the conventional wisdom is that Alley is the best shot the Rs have in this race, though there’s no head to head polling yet w/Kitzhaber or Bradley (except for Rassmussen)
Don’t know if/how much Dudley’s vote was locked in by early mail-in ballots (most of us got our ballots 2 weeks ago).
Dont vote on anything in the state legislature that may look bad! He is currently avoiding most budgetary votes, which are of course the biggies since we have a giant deficit to fix like most states.
Guess he wont be running as a tea-bagger in the GE, which is a bit of a downer.
Anyone know how the Tarryl Clark campaign is going? Does she have any momentum or any shot at taking out Mrs Lunatic? Any recent polling?
I think Sestak wins Conway goes to a recount and eeks it out, and Halter keeps blanche under 50% forcing a runoff.
PA
Sestak 52%
Specter 48%
KY
Conway 49%
Mongiardo 49%
AR
Halter 45%
Blanche 49%
Given Bennett’s surprising last weekend I’m wondering whether there were many other incumbents who should have been primaried this cycle. In particular, if potentially viable candidates, like Jason Chaffetz, should have entered. Off the top of my head Jeff Flake in Arizona would have provided a more legitimate opponent for McCain than Hayworth and Lisa Madigan would have mopped the floor with both Quinn and Brady.
I get to see Steve Poizner’s ad blanket my TV screen up here in the Bay Area:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…
It looks like Iowa will go first again in 2012, so I took a stab at handicapping the Republican field of likely presidential candidates. I think Romney will by and large skip Iowa and Pawlenty will inherit a lot of the 2008 Romney supporters. Not clear how many ways the social conservative vote will be split–that part of the base tends to dominate the caucuses.
Three of our 56 Democratic incumbents are facing primary challengers. I doubt any of the three will win, though. The one I have my eye on is a district in north-central Des Moines, where a conservative minister is running against the incumbent mainly on the gay marriage and abortion issues.
Iowa’s State Auditor David Vaudt endorsed Terry Branstad this week, but the Republican who was auditor during most of the time Branstad was governor before is co-chairing the Bob Vander Plaats campaign.
Long-shot candidate Rod Roberts started running tv ads. I still think this guy is in the race mainly to undercut Vander Plaats.
Chet Culver is formally kicking off his campaign next week. He, his wife and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge are doing events in 41 counties between May 17-21. Culver has been strangely absent from the campaign trail the last few months, although he has done official events around the state.
Some dude who used to be a staffer for Congressman John Kline of Minnesota will probably beat some Ron Paul dude in the GOP primary, but Bruce Braley has nothing to worry about here. He can focus on his DCCC duties in the fall.
It’s disappointing that we haven’t gotten someone who’s generated enough traction to legitimately challenge a Congressman as bland and odious as Thad McCotter.
NY state Senate is always a good topic around here, and it looks like d-bag Carl Kruger from Brooklyn is getting a big primary challenger.
(Accidently called this place, “these boards”, god, I so dont miss message boards.)
Michelle Rollins won the GOP endorsement, 231-106 over Glen Urquhart
I’m from PA, so I’m of course going to be looking at the PA races. Onorato and Corbett seem heading towards a showdown (even though I, personally, will be voting for Joe Hoeffel), the Lt. Gov race seems extremely interesting. There are so many candidates on the Republican side that it’s impossible to make a prediction in that one. On the Dems, it will come down to Saidel, who has support in Philly and the surrounding area, and Conklin, who seems to have support almost everywhere else. Of course, everyone is watching the Senate race, which I think Sestak will end up taking. Still, it will be interesting to see if Specter’s name recognition pulls for him in the end.
I live in Elk County currently (PA-5, extremely Republican, sadly), but I’ve gone to school and have a secondary residence in Cambria County (PA-12). The PA-12 race will be extremely interesting, and will come down to voter participation. While the district is fairly Democratic, the Republicans in the area are energized, and have mobilized a Get Out The Vote campaign I’ve never seen from Republicans before. If the Dems go and vote, this race is Critz’. I’m worried, though.
From a far, I’m looking at a few races that are under the radar. HI-Gov Democratic Primary – Abercrombie has an edge, but it doesn’t seem as extreme as I would have guessed. Hanneman is actually polling within single digits of him. They both seem safe to win the general, however. Also HI-1 CAN’T fall in the hands of Republicans…and I don’t think it will as long as Ed Case walks out relatively unharmed.
DE-Sen – It seems like we’ve all but given up Joe Biden’s seat.
RI-Gov – Chafee seems to be on his way to becoming an Independent Governor. Honestly, even as a Dem…I’m rooting for him.
Sarah Palin just endorsed Susana Martinez in a five republican primary.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz…
And by episode, I mean 1 hour thing happening on Tuesday, the finaly Is an entirely different beast, longer and on a Sunday.
Next week is the worst week for me to have finals :'(
to make maps like alibguy does
has been officially chosen as the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Indiana. I can’t wait untill November.
http://www.wibc.com/news/Story…
http://www.google.com/hostedne…
Campaigning for Brewer.
http://www.google.com/hostedne…
Campaigning for Brewer.
http://www.nationaljournal.com…
just heard Arlen Specter on CNN saying that he would fully support Sestak if he beat him in the primary. Sestak wouldn’t say the same. I find it comforting to know that Specter will still be a team player if he loses. Bob Bennett was also a guess and to my pleasure he did not rule out a write in campaign.
http://www.ocregister.com/opin…
some of the worst political commercials I have seen lately:
Let’s say a candidate’s website includes photos of the candidate with, say, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. To me that seems fair. Others might claim that is a dishonest way to make people think the candidate has been endorsed by Clinton or Obama.
What does the SSP community think?
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com…
the trendlines are good for Alley. I have no info on the credibility of this particular poster. FWIW, their internals show Alley’s standing to be greater among “high propensity” R voters, aka, those more likely to vote.
At least the conventional wisdom is that Alley is the best shot the Rs have in this race, though there’s no head to head polling yet w/Kitzhaber or Bradley (except for Rassmussen)
Don’t know if/how much Dudley’s vote was locked in by early mail-in ballots (most of us got our ballots 2 weeks ago).