Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/10-12, likely voters, 3/8-10 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 45 (32)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43 (51)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)Joe Sestak (D): 40 (39)
Pat Toomey (R): 45 (42)
Undecided: 15 (19)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (47)
Pat Toomey (R): 49 (41)
Undecided: 10 (12)
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 is the most recent pollster to find a small edge for Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter in the May 18 Democratic Senate primary, and also to find Sestak overperforming Specter versus Toomey in the general election. They also find Sestak with by far the most upside of any of the three candidates: Specter’s favorables are at 45/44 with 11% no opinion, Toomey’s are 45/40 with 15% no opinion, and Sestak’s are 39/26 with 35% no opinion.
Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/10-13, likely voters, 5/9-12 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (44)
Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)
Undecided: 12 (12)Dan Onorato (D): 39 (39)
Anthony Williams (D): 14 (14)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 11 (11)
Jack Wagner (D): 11 (9)
Undecided: 25 (27)
(MoE: ±5%)
Muhlenberg finds things going the other direction, with a move from a tie in its daily tracker to a 2-point lead for Specter. They also find almost no movement in the gubernatorial primary, with Dan Onorato still in a dominant position.
have no opinion (fav/unfav) of him.
A lot of anti-Arlen voting in the primary going on here. Voters just picking that other Dem choice even though they have no opinion him.
Ir’s really unfortunate that my last final is on wednesday, because much of the time I would have devoted to studying for it will be going to watching live blogs.
Because poll after poll has showed Specter having a poorer chance of beating Toomey than Sestak. Originally, I disliked both of the candidates so I was supporting whoever had a better chance of beating Toomey. At first, that was Specter but now that has changed. Also, I have heard from people that Specter is a masterful negative campaigner. That may have been true but if he were so good at negative campaigning, he would not be losing his ground so much.
The suburbs will be the interesting flashpoint in this race, as usual for PA. It’s the one place where the party establishment isn’t working for Specter. Of course, all the party people in Sestak’s district are supporting him, but my mother is on the committee in Montgomery County and she’s been saying some very encouraging things. Basically, Sestak had the votes to garner the county party’s endorsement, but they didn’t want to go against the state party, so they opted not to endorse anyone. The sample ballots that they distribute at the polls will list both candidates names and the committee people are allowed to distribute literature for whomever they want. Supposedly, most of them will be getting material from Sestak. Sestak signs are everywhere out there, from what I saw last weekend.
Of course, the Philly suburbs were always Specter’s base when he was a Republican, and those are the very Republicans who’ve been switching parties in droves through the 06 and 08 waves. This could come down to a battle of long-time Democrats v. converted Republicans out there. Not sure if there’s enough former Republicans to turn this one, but if Sestak can perform as well as I think he will in the suburbs, it could carry him to the win.