Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3

3:07am: The AR-03 (R) runoff has been called for Womack and Bledsoe.

1:52am: OR-01’s R primary has finally been called by the AP for Rob Cornilles, who beat opponents Keller and Kuzmanich 40-29-28. We’re still waiting on one race: which wingnut squeaks into the Republican runoff in AR-03 against Steve Womack: will it be Cecile Bledsoe or Gunner DeLay? Bledsoe has pulled into a tiny lead (13% each, with a 182 vote spread, with 510 of 533 reporting).

12:54am: The AP has called the OR-Gov GOP primary for Chris Dudley. I forget which pundit made the point, but this sets up possibly the tallest major election ever, if you laid the two candidates end-to-end. At any rate, I think Dudley poses less of a challenge for Kitz than would Alley, who came across more, uh, substantial.

12:49am: Two last races out there. In the wingnut central that is AR-03, Gunner DeLay and Cecile Bledsoe are duking it out for the right to go into a runoff with Steve Womack (91% counted). And in OR-01, Rob Cornilles has a 10-point lead over Douglas Keller, but the vote’s still being counted.

12:42am: The AP calls PA-06 (D) for Manan Trivedi and PA-17 (R) for Dave Argall.

12:34am: All 100% are reporting in PA-17 as well, and David Argall seems to have won, beating Frank Ryan 32-31 (with a 900 vote spread). AP hasn’t called this one, yet.

12:22am: Trivedi wins! 100% in according to the AP, and he’s up 21,338 to 20,667, a 50.8% to 49.2% victory! WOOHOO!!!! GREAT NIGHT!

12:12am: Manan Trivedi is up 672 votes, and it looks like there are very few if any precincts outstanding. Hard to tell, though, since the SoS doesn’t say, and AP is lagging.

12:09am: AP calls OR-05 (R) for Scott Bruun. He’ll face freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in the fall.

12:05am: Alright, where’s the foul up with the PA-19 (R) numbers? According to the AP, Rep. Todd Platts dispatched his primary challenger, Michael Smeltzer, with ease – 70-30. But the PA SoS shows him barely surviving, at 54-46. State Rep. Eugene DePasquale (D) tweets at us that the 70-30 figure is correct.

12:03am: Ah well – the AP says John Boozman won’t face a runoff. Fortunately, the Dem runoff in Arkansas is in just three weeks, so we won’t face a prolonged exposure like we do in NC (six weeks).

12:02am: The clock’s struck midnight, and as we like to say around here, we’re getting down to stems and seeds, folks. The AP has called PA-03 (R) for Mike Kelly, who wins with 28% to Paul Huber’s 26%.

11:59pm: A moment ago, Bill Halter temporarily pulled into the lead (by 86 votes) over Blanche Lincoln. She’s back ahead now by some 1,400 votes, but it would be interesting if Halter finished the night ahead.

11:55pm: Following these PA races is a bit of a pain — the AP is updating at a sluggish pace compared to the DoS, but the DoS won’t tell us where any outstanding votes are. Still, between the two, we have some good news for Manan Trivedi. Trivedi leads Pike by 800 votes according to the latest DoS count. The latest AP count (91% of the vote) indicates that almost all of Chester County is in (where Pike romped by 67-33), with a few outstanding precincts in Montgomery County, where Trivedi beat Pike. Great news.

11:40pm: What else is still on the board? Well, John Boozman is desperately trying to avoid getting teabagged into a runoff – he’s at 51.2% now with 60% reporting. And things just got a LOT tighter in PA-06, where Manan Trivedi is at 50.7% to 49.3% for Doug Pike now.

11:35pm: AP calls the OR-Sen R primary for law professor Jim Huffman, even though he’s only at 42%; none of his many opponents broke 15%.

11:32pm: Now we’re getting down to just a handful of races left. AR-01 (D) is going to be a runoff between Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey. AR-02 (D) will be a runoff between Joyce Elliott and Robbie Wills.

11:31pm: So three races left in Pennsylvania: PA-06, PA-03 (where 100% are reporting but the race is uncalled), and PA-17.

11:30pm: Looks like our friends down in PA-06 have returned from a phat ganja break – Trivedi now has 18,132 to Pike’s 15,521. The problem is that the PA SoS doesn’t say how many precincts are outstanding, and the AP is well behind the SoS. But I’m guessing we’re around 70-75% counted.

11:28pm: On the R side in OR-Gov, with 40% reporting (see how fast it goes when all the ballots are already in hand?), it’s Chris Dudley with the slam dunk, or at least the lightly-contested layup: he’s at 41, Allen Alley at 32, John Lim at 13, and Bill Sizemore proving you can still be competitive even after indictment, at 8.

11:24pm: Well, that was easy – the AP just called OR-Gov (D) for Kitz. Kinda gotta wonder why Bradbury never just got out of the way in the first place….

11:21 pm: Detouring down into the weeds in Oregon: the nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is being decided today, not in November, because only two people ran. The incumbent Susan Castillo (whomever everyone knows is the D) is beating Ron Maurer (the R) 55-45. Also, in the Treasurer primary, incumbent appointee Ted Wheeler is beating Rick Metsger 63-37.

11:16pm: ALERT! AR-Sen (D) will go to a run-off. And the tally (with 50% in) is a lot closer than polls suggested it was likely to be. Blanche Lincoln is at 43.5% and Bill Halter is at 42.3%.

11:15pm: In OR-01 (R), it’s Rob Cornilles 38, Douglas Keller 32, John Kuzmanich 28 with 36% in. In OR-05 (R), it’s Scott Bruun 59, “Not That” Fred Thompson 42 (23% in).

11:13pm: Miles to go before we sleep: Out in Oregon, John Kitzhaber is crushing Bill Bradbury in the Dem gov primary, 69-27, with 20% reporting. Chris Dudley has a 41-33 lead over Allen Alley on the GOP side.

11:01pm: So it looks like the PA SoS is further along than Politico. They show PA-06 already at 54-46 Trivedi.

11:00pm: Polls have just closed in Oregon.

10:58pm: Gonna guess run-off in AR-01 as well, where Tim Wooldridge leads Chad Causey 34-28.

10:57pm: With about a third in, Joye Elliott leads AR-02 over Robbie Wills, 36-33. Looks like there will be a runoff here.

10:53pm: Alright, the AP just called it for Tom Marino, who wins with an unspiring 42% or so. He’ll square off against Chris Carney in the fall.

10:50pm: Still some unsettled GOP primaries in Pennsylvania. PA-03: Mike Kelly has a narrow 29-26 lead over Paul Huber with all but 7% counted. PA-10: Tom Marino hanging on with 42% (87% counted). PA-17: Dave Argall at just 35 with Frank Ryan at 32, with 82% in.

10:47pm: So here’s a look at what’s going on: In AR-Sen, Lincoln is up just 44-42 over Halter with a third of the vote in. John Boozman keeps flirting with the 50% mark. In PA-06, Manan Trivedi is up 59-41 with half the vote in; our model shows a 54% victory for him.

Polls will close in Oregon at 11pm Eastern. Let’s rock this party west coast style! Laiiiid back.

RESULTS:

174 thoughts on “Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3”

  5. Still a little early, but it seems almost certain that Lincoln and Halter will go into a runoff.

    Boozman on the other hand seems to in 50/50 on whatever he avoids one or not. His chances of making it to the general would diminish severely if he is forced into a two man race with Holt or who ever is in second place. Remember he is a an incumbent Congressman and voters don’t particular like incumbents. He seems to be in first place primarily on name recognition.

  8. in the last thread that there were more Dem votes in PA-11 than Rep votes, remember that there were no statewide competitive R primaries.

  12. Halter is doing way better than expected so far…He’s even winning in Lincoln territory (Cross county, where I was born and raised…personal victory!)

  13. He’s indirectly slamming Specter right now. He should be congratulating Specter for his 30 years in public service. By claiming that politicians are just looking out for themselves, he compromising fracturing the base. Look, I fully support Sestak against Toomey, but he needs to stop taking shots at Specter.

  16. I am so happy that Critz kicked some major ass tonight.  Well, maybe not “major ass”, but an impressive victory regardless.

    Big opportunity for the GOP, and they screwed it up.  

  17. What type of party votes out a guy who votes the party line 98% of the time?  Clearly Spector’s loss indicates that the Democratic party is not big tent enough.  

    /sarc

  21. Just wondering. I know that Oregon has had much less attention than the other three states tonight but both the Dem and GOP gubernatorial primaries are somewhat competitive…

  22. Does anyone know if Republicans who voted in the Republican primary for today’s election would be eligible to vote in the Democratic primary runoff? I am guessing not and let’s hope that this is the case.

  23. Kitzhaber has been declared the winner — 2:1 over Bradbury

    Dudley’s leading Alley 41:31 with 35% counted

    slight bonus race – the Superintendent of Public Instruction – one of the local weeklies (Willamette Week) endorsed a guy who turned out to be a creationist, or something. He’s going down only 58/42.

    Most of the votes counted so far are from west of the mountains. The late Multnomah vote (Portland area) usually takes somewhat longer to come in.

  24. I’m surprised that Lincoln is ahead of Halter by only 1%. This bodes well for Halter in the runoff unless Morrison’s voters show up for the runoff and massively vote for Lincoln.

    On a second note I believe that the votes Morrison got are the Democrats most likely to cross over to support the Republican whoever it is.

    Speaking of Republicans, Boozman is still right above 50% so no idea if he can avoid a runoff or not.

  28. Back of the envelope math puts this one in recount territory, with Pike winning by <200 votes.

    Pike is up 66-34 in Berks.  Trivedi is up 70-30 in Chester.  Trivedi is up 53-47 in Montgomery.  But Berks is the biggest part of the district, and it is only 1/2 in.

  31. before Sestak was Robert Edgar, who retired in 1986…to challenge Arlen Specter for the Senate seat.

    Admittedly, a different 7th district, but still nice symmetry.

  40. AP has Trivedi ahead 51-49 with 95% reporting. SOS is ahead and shows similar results, so it’s probably 96+ reporting.

    Stick a fork in Doug Pike…?

  42. While it may be a bit premature yet, DeLay is running ahead of Bledsoe at the moment. If he can keep ahead, that once again removes the the possability of a new GOP congresswoman.

  45. For a split second, I thought Lane Bryant was running to become Arkansas Land Commissioner. Sadly no, but it’s LJ Bryant, a young dude with big teeth, and he’s in the runoff with a guy named Monty Davenport, who has 2.5 chins and looks like the picture in the dictionary next to “good ole boy.”

    Upon further investigation, I have to say this is an interesting under-the-radar race: the LJ Bryant dude is 23 (!) and got a swinging endorsement over three-term state Rep. Monty Davenport & the other dude who just got eliminated (R. Berg) from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, the state’s biggest paper.

    Sometimes editorialists are confronted with multiple candidates running for the same office-all of whom are qualified, eager to serve, knowledgeable about the job, open to new ideas, humble enough about the opportunity but confident enough in themselves to suggest something along the lines of leadership. So after all the interviews, the editorial writers argue among themselves about whom to endorse and why. They review notes to decide on why Candidate A is just a touch better than B or C or D, then write a piece explaining how great it is that voters have so many fine candidates to choose from.

    This isn’t one of those editorials. There is a clear choice in the Democratic primary for Arkansas’ land commissioner. He’s young man named LJ Bryant.

    They go on to sing his praises (mostly along the lines of “he’s a competent technocrat who would introduce badly-needed modernization”) while dismissing the other two candidates without mentioning them. And they end with…

    in the Democratic primary, do yourself and the state of Arkansas a favor: vote LJ Bryant.

    Dude, if you’re 23 and the state’s biggest, most influential newspaper goes to the mat for you like that, you’re doing something right.  

  47. With 100% of the precincts reporting, the KY-Sen numbers show this:

    Jack Conway (D)     226,773

    Dan Mongiardo (D)   221,269

    Rand Paul (R)       206,159

    Trey Grayson (R)    124,238

    Darlene Price (D)    28,172

    James Buckmaster (D) 20,318

    Maurice Sweeney (D)  17,641

    Bill Johnson (R)      7,825

    John Stephenson (R)   6,861

    Jon Scribner (R)      2,853

    Gurley Martin (R)     2,847

    Total Dem: 514,173 votes

    Total GOP: 350,783 votes

    So even the no-name candidates in the Democratic primary all got well over 15,000 votes each, while the no-names in the GOP primary couldn’t break the 8,000 vote mark.

    Interestingly enough, in the GOP primary, Gurley Martin is an 86-year-old WWII Army veteran, and from his website, looks to be both a birther and a tenther.  Not even a bio on his site.

    Stephenson was the final state superintendent of public instruction, as Kentucky voters voted to abolish that office in 1992.  And he was a Democrat back then too, having left the party because he’s pro-life.

  49. Lincoln is finished.  She will lose the runoff. An incumbent pulled into a runoff almost always loses. The Morrison votes will disappear from the runoff for the most part. The good thing is Halter is NOT an incumbent. I perceive that nationally Halter is considered more liberal, but in Ark. not so much, perhaps.

    The bad news is Boozman is a heavy favorite regardless.  Maybe Clinton and an improving economy can pull it out for Halter though.

    PA-12 is HUGE,IMO.  KY is now winnable.PA is more winnable now too.

    How won the imaginary babka?  I missed PA-12 and the runoff for ARk., so it wasn’t me.  

  54. i would think that really we will be running the same race in many states.  here’s how it goes:

    Vote for me because HE’S CRAZY!

    I think Conway, Sestak, and Meek are better candidates in 2010 (maybe not in a different year but definitely in 2010) than other candidates because they are clean and fresh and less connected to Washington as usual.  The simple races are:

    Conway (good-looking, smart, squeaky clean but democratic politics in a GOP-state in federal races) vs. Paul (also good looking but crazy far-right politics- HE’S CRAZY)

    Sestak (impressive – outside DC record, independent) vs Toomey (harsh, extreme right wing politics – HE’S CRAZY)

    Meek (impressive personal story, progressive record, not really an outsider – although as a black man, it would be hard to argue that he’s a good old boy) vs Marco Rubio (angry outsider – HE’S CRAZY)

    So maybe the recipe is sane outsider vs crazy outsider.

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