Public Policy Polling for Patriot Majority (5/12-16, likely voters):
Sharron Angle (R): 29
Sue Lowden (R): 26
Danny Tarkanian (R): 24
Chad Christensen (R): 5
John Chachas (R): 5
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Heh. Patriot Majority, a liberal PAC with ties to Harry Reid, has plopped down some scrilla to check the pulse of Sue Lowden’s campaign. (Patriot Majority was last seen putting out TV ads against Lowden’s chickencare scheme.) The poll gives further credence to the narrative that Angle is surging at Lowden’s expense, especially on the heels of the Club For Growth’s announcement that they will put their financial muscle behind Angle. (Also recall that a recent Mason-Dixon poll only had Lowden ahead of Angle by 30-25.)
Angle, an ex-state Assemblywoman, is a true movement conservative — one that Democrats thought they could’ve beat had she won the GOP nomination against Dean Heller in Nevada’s 2nd CD back in 2006. I’m not sure which candidate Harry Reid would prefer to take on: the Chicken Lady or the Growther.
Sue Lowden is one of the most inept politicians to rise in the last few cycles. She’s a non-stop gaffe machine and I think she’ll probably continue to further embarrass herself on the campaign trail. Nevertheless, she’s loaded and has the ability to be more financially competitive with Reid than Angle.
On the other hand, Angle is a true and utter nutjob who will be very easy to define. Even with the Club for Growth money pouring in, her fundraising will never be as competitive as Lowden. One thing she has over Lowden is that Angle’s supporters are probably far more enthusiastic about voting for her.
Also, Rasmussen polls PA, finds Sestak leading by 4:
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Which means he’s probably leading by 8-10 in the real world.
http://www.sharronangle.com/en…
Pat Boone (!), Joe the Plumber, Phyllis Schlafly…
I see only one thing coming up over and over again.
Scientology.
Oh, goody. Start the attack ad of her and Tom Cruise jumping on a couch together.
As someone with admittedly little knowledge of NV politics (I went to Vegas for like, 3 days ten years ago :P), I would have thought Lowden’s idiocy would either give her a boost among the crazies, or cause her to bleed support to Tarkanian. I never would have dreamed of Anglementum.
She’s going to get her ass kicked… It doesnt paint too horrible of a picture, but reading between the lines and from her endorsements, she’s going to be a hoot. Im almost sad to see Lowden go down, but at least it’s not to Tarkanian. We still get a good entertaining NV-Sen election.
They forced Crist and Specter out of the Republican party, they got their preferred candidate in KY-Sen, FL-Sen, etc. I think the chicken lady is probably a weaker GE candidate just because she doubled down on her crazy. I think Angle can raise more money, being a teabagger favorite. And I am curious as to her political capacity. She appears to be spiking at the right time, seeing as the primary is coming up rather soon.
From my states own primaries I have learned not to put too much trust in the Tea Party when it comes to them getting their crazies. Sadly I don’t think Angle will win. 🙁
I really think incompetent is much easier to beat than crazy. In a state where voters really don’t like Senator Reid, I can see them bringing themselves to vote for a crazy, but I don’t think in the end they’d support someone who’s totally incompetent. If Lowden wins, Reid romps, but Angle could actually mount a challenge, no matter how nuts she might be. Face it, what we see as “nuts”, plenty of voters see as “you tell ’em!”.
Plus, there’s still the chance Tarkanian could win, who while a wingnut, doesn’t project weirdness and crazy like his opponents.
So count me as one who would much rather have seen Lowden save her implosion until after the primary.
David, you do realize that after the finale, you’re not going to be able to avoid hearing what happened on Lost. Maybe you can keep it off this blog, but let’s be honest its going to be the biggest series finale since Seinfeld.
Get cracking on the episodes you missed.
If Angle does win the primary, the 2010 general will wind up the ultimate litmus test for the Tea Party crowd – can candidates like Angle and Paul win in states with 40% Dem registration? My suspicion is Angle would prove very competitive with Reid, although with Reid looking poised to net 90%+ Dems, he’ll have a baseline of about 46-47% to begin with.
Angle is probably the one we’d rather not be facing. Remember, in addition to the chicken gaffes, the Paulists also hate Lowden for shutting down the 2008 GOP convention when it was obvious that Paul was going to win it. I don’t care how much establishment cash she can raise, it’s an anti-establishment year, and Reid’s best hope is to be facing an even more hapless establishment candidate than he is.
Remember what happened in the 1982 race for what is now John Ensign’s seat. Powerful four-term moderate Las Vegas machine Dem Howard Cannon was challenged by little-known (and pretty crazy, by 1982 standards) State Senator Chic Hecht, who was petty much the Sharron Angle of his day (though a raging moderate by today’s standards). Cannon was dinged slightly by a bribery investigation set up by the Teamsters after he refused to pull his bill deregulating the trucking industry, which subsequently passed, but was still the most powerful Senator in Nevada history until Reid himself became Dem whip, while Hecht was an absolute nobody. (Hecht went on to a short and inglorious single term before being defeated by popular former D Gov. (and consummate jackass) Richard Bryan).
If Reid lost to Angle, it would be history repeating, and just incredibly weird in general. The weirder part is that both of these guys had incredibly close calls in an earlier cycle – Cannon nearly lost to Paul Laxalt in 1964 (48 vote margin), while Reid was 428 votes shy of being knocked off by John Ensign in 1998.
Obviously, the demographics are different now, but Nevadans’ distaste for Vegas machine politicians is about the same now as it was 28 years ago – especially because most people moving to Nevada in the last decade or so probably have only heard negative things about Harry Reid and made up their minds about him before they moved there.
I’m not saying it will happen, just identifying a somewhat strange pattern, such as NC’s Class III seat or PA-Gov always switching parties in recent times (both streaks which very well may be broken this year). My point is don’t count Angle out – it has happened before.
it remains to be seen if the general voters do.
my sense is that reid and his $10M have books of Angle’s crazy quotes/positions/associations and ads featuring each one. the only way for an unpopular incumbent to win is to make voters find the alternative unacceptable and it sounds like Ms. Angle is just what the doctor ordered.
and i disagree with whoever suggested that voters like craziness better than incompetence. what will push them away from the alternative to the flawed incumbent is when they hear that the challenger has a) broken the law or b) believes something that they find abhorrent.