CA-Sen: The Tom Campbell Myth

A week in advance of the California GOP Primary to replace Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, there’s some new hooplah invading the blogosphere over a stunning new poll on the race. The poll, commissioned by the Los Angeles Times, shows that while fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is leading the pack to win the nomination, she is performing an entire 13 points worse than fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell against Boxer.

This development has fired-up both the Campbell and Fiorina camps, as Campbell touts the poll as the basis for an electability argument – he can beat Boxer while Fiorina cannot – while Fiorina is rightfully pointing to Campbell’s two failed statewide runs from the past, not to mention the fmr. Congressman’s inability to compete in the state’s Gubernatorial race, which he’d been contesting prior to the Senate run.

Most of my fellow pundits appear to be siding with Campbell’s argument, that a moderate GOP-er can compete with the liberal Boxer, while a conservative like Fiorina, who also happened to be fired from her tenure at HP, probably cannot.

I respectfully disagree with this assertion. I happen to think Fiorina, not Campbell (nor Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the third candidate in the primary), is actually the strongest candidate to take on the incumbent Boxer. While my colleagues are correct about Campbell’s more centrist record, I believe the fmr. Congressman has two serious electoral problems that Fiorina does not.

For one, Fiorina has the ability to self-fund her campaign, relieving national Republicans from having to pump funds into the most expansive and expensive state in the country. Campbell, who has hardly been a firecracker on the fundraising trail, would need outside support to fund his campaign. Also, and perhaps even more importantly, is the issue of Republican turn-out. Campbell, who is detested by the Tea Party crowd, could face problems in GOTV with his party’s base. While he may have the ability to peel off some conservative Democrats and moderate Independents who wouldn’t take too kindly to Fiorina, if Campbell cannot turn-out the GOP base as well, he absolutely cannot prevail.

Fiorina, on the flip side, is respected among self-described conservatives and even with the Tea Party crowd. Her admiration from the latter has forced the even more conservative DeVore into a distant third. However, I think the fmr. CEO does have the ability to reach out to some moderates and score the necessary numbers among non-affilateds to take down Boxer. Her tenure at HP will surely draw fire from the Boxer camp, and she is prone to making the occasional gaffe.

Alas, if Republicans really want to fulfill their dream of taking out Barbara Boxer, it’s Carly Fiorina, not Tom Campbell, who’s their most golden option.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

31 thoughts on “CA-Sen: The Tom Campbell Myth”

  1. I would agree with this analysis if Fiorina weren’t such a gaffe machine. From Demon Sheep to campaigning with tractors to suggesting she’d implement reforms that were passed a decade ago, she’s basically run one of the worst-run campaigns in the history of politics, thus far.

    Frankly, it’s hard to tell which she’s run worse: her campaign or HP. At least running her campaign badly didn’t result in the firing of thousands of workers.  

  3.   and so is going dark on TV. His ad wasn’t that wonderful or exciting and there are enough GOPpers who would never vote for him that he is now DOA in the race. Maybe if DeVore were capturing more of the more rightwing vote from Carly then Tom Campbell might have a chance, but he is fading, too. And that is for much the same reason; lack of money. It costs a whole lot of money to run a successful statewide campaign in CA.  

  5. Tom Campbell is great, IMO.  He’s exactly the kind of open minded thinker who belongs in the Senate.  If this was an open seat, I’d switch parties to vote for him in the primary and teh general election.

    I really dislike Fiorina, I think she’s incredibly corrupt with her behavior at HP, and I wouldn’t trust at all.  In general, I don’t trust corporate CEOs anymore.

    DeVore seems like a upstanding guy, but he’s far too conservative.

    But Barbara Boxer has done a decent job as senator, IMO, and I see no reason to get rid of her.  

  6. but I disagree with you about Fiorina. I think Boxer has about an 85% chance of winning reelection, and I’ll predict a 7% margin for her. Mike Huffington wasn’t able to buy his senatorial election, and a woman whose record and campaigning style has so many liabilities won’t be able to, either.

  7. I agree when it comes to finances because Campbell going dark now clearly indicates that he is out of money. However I think Carley will have to answer to her service at ruining HP. Plus she is gaffe-tastic. Boxer is a polarizing figure and having a sane-competent, albeit dull challenger will probably pose more of a threat than a more “questionable” conservative. Undoubtedly Carly will backtrack and move more towards the center come November but it may be too late by then. Many moderate dems would be happy to support a moderate R over the more liberal somewhat polarizing (love you Barb) Boxer. For a Republican to win they need to clean up with indies and get some Democrat support and I don’t see anyone but Campbell doing it. You make a good argument though.  

  8. had aired attack ads against Fiorina when he had the money, he could of solidified his lead. Instead he acted like it was the general election and started attacking Boxer instead.

Comments are closed.