A week in advance of the California GOP Primary to replace Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, there’s some new hooplah invading the blogosphere over a stunning new poll on the race. The poll, commissioned by the Los Angeles Times, shows that while fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is leading the pack to win the nomination, she is performing an entire 13 points worse than fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell against Boxer.
This development has fired-up both the Campbell and Fiorina camps, as Campbell touts the poll as the basis for an electability argument – he can beat Boxer while Fiorina cannot – while Fiorina is rightfully pointing to Campbell’s two failed statewide runs from the past, not to mention the fmr. Congressman’s inability to compete in the state’s Gubernatorial race, which he’d been contesting prior to the Senate run.
Most of my fellow pundits appear to be siding with Campbell’s argument, that a moderate GOP-er can compete with the liberal Boxer, while a conservative like Fiorina, who also happened to be fired from her tenure at HP, probably cannot.
I respectfully disagree with this assertion. I happen to think Fiorina, not Campbell (nor Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the third candidate in the primary), is actually the strongest candidate to take on the incumbent Boxer. While my colleagues are correct about Campbell’s more centrist record, I believe the fmr. Congressman has two serious electoral problems that Fiorina does not.
For one, Fiorina has the ability to self-fund her campaign, relieving national Republicans from having to pump funds into the most expansive and expensive state in the country. Campbell, who has hardly been a firecracker on the fundraising trail, would need outside support to fund his campaign. Also, and perhaps even more importantly, is the issue of Republican turn-out. Campbell, who is detested by the Tea Party crowd, could face problems in GOTV with his party’s base. While he may have the ability to peel off some conservative Democrats and moderate Independents who wouldn’t take too kindly to Fiorina, if Campbell cannot turn-out the GOP base as well, he absolutely cannot prevail.
Fiorina, on the flip side, is respected among self-described conservatives and even with the Tea Party crowd. Her admiration from the latter has forced the even more conservative DeVore into a distant third. However, I think the fmr. CEO does have the ability to reach out to some moderates and score the necessary numbers among non-affilateds to take down Boxer. Her tenure at HP will surely draw fire from the Boxer camp, and she is prone to making the occasional gaffe.
Alas, if Republicans really want to fulfill their dream of taking out Barbara Boxer, it’s Carly Fiorina, not Tom Campbell, who’s their most golden option.