http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/08/jindal_leads_comfortably_in_la.html
Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%
Jindal (R): 63%
Boasso (D): 14%
Campbell (D): 4%
Georges (R): 1%
SMOR also asked about the Governor's race if New Orleans Ray Nagin (D) were on the ballot:
Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%
Jindal (R): 60%
Nagin (D): 10%
Boasso (D): 10%
Campbell (D): 3%
Georges (R): 1%
Southern Media & Opinion Research did two polls in March in preperation for a potential bid by either current Governor Blanco or former Senator John Breaux, and showed Jindal ahead of them, earning 59% and 56%, respectively. Without either of those two top-tier Democratic challengers, its not surprising to see Jindal polling above 60% in their polling.
This polling also paints a different picture than Anzalone Liszt Research polling did in between the two sets of SMOR polls, which showed Jindal's share dropping from 62% to 52% in the same period of time that State Sen. Walter Boasso (D) started running television ads statewide. While two polls is not enough to paint a trendline (though it didn't stop people from trying anyways), it did show Jindal vulnerable to not winning outright in the October jungle primary, whereas this new poll doesn't reflect the same picture.
There are a few reasons why this may be the case. First, speaking technically, different polling outfits use different methodologies, which usually count for discrepancies between them. There is no reliable way to determine which is more accurate until after the election. Anzalone could run a poll next week and find Jindal at 35%, and it wouldn't make either of their polls any more or less reliable. Because of the different methodologies, it is also difficult to make a straight-cut comparison between the two. For instance, you cannot say that Jindal rose ten points between this poll and the most recent Anzalone poll.
Another reason may be that Jindal has started to run statewide TV ads now. TV ads were the primary impetus behind Boasso's rise in the polls, so it stands to reason that the same would happen with Jindal.
Whatever the case, this poll clearly stands in the way of the train of thought that Jindal is not the heavy favorite to win in 2007. Don't get me wrong, this poll is not infallible, and anything can happen, especially in Louisiana politics. The purpose of this poll, and this diary, is not to say one way or another what will happen, but only to give a platform from which people judge what needs to happen. In order for Jindal to lose, someone needs to take a lot of support away from him. According to SMOR, that person doesn't appear to be Walter Boasso or Ray Nagin, and whoever that person may be will have their work cut out for them.