Last Thursday, just one day after New York Republicans selected Rick Lazio as their official nominee for Governor, the state’s GOP convention produced some mixed results in the U.S. Senate race to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Unable to settle upon one candidate, both Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass will compete in a September primary for the GOP nomination. Joe DioGuardi, the third candidate, failed to garner the support necessary to make that primary ballot.
There’s only one problem. DioGuardi, no matter what happens on the GOP side, already has a guaranteed slot on the November ballot. Huh?
New York’s Conservative Party, the right-wing gang originally designed to create hell for liberal Republican Nelson Rockefellar way back when, has already given DioGuardi its ballot line for the Senate race, provoking all sorts of vote-splitting horrors for Republicans statewide.
After all, just rewind back to that fascinating race up in NY-23, where liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, once considered the overwhelming front-runner, was bombarded by the Conservative nominee, uber-right-winger Doug Hoffman. Hoffman, a political arsonist at its worst, damaged Scozzafava so horribly among the district’s Republicans that she dropped out of the race at the 11-o-clock hour. For Hoffman, however, it was an exercise to nowhere, as Democrat Bill Owens used the obnoxious Hoffman/Scozzafava showdown to his benefit, claiming victory as the one normal, likable candidate in the race.
For New York Republicans, such a scenario on a statewide level would be the nightmare from hell.
My suspicion is, however, DioGuardi, the fmr. Westchester Congressman, doesn’t have the money or excitement to make a real dent in this race. He’s so dull and washed-up, he makes Rick Lazio look fun, and I think most conservatives will make a valiant effort to rally around either Blakeman, the fmr. Port Authority Commissioner, or Malpass, the fmr. Reagan advisor. Both men are moderate Republicans, but not quite as liberal or RINO-y as Scozzafava, plus many state GOP-ers are salivating at the notion that Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand might be a bit vulnerable when it comes to the general.
I do think this race is in the Likely Dem column, perhaps even Safe Dem, with Gillibrand consolidating the vast majority of Democrats and probably performing quite well among Independents too. Even if she doesn’t succeed among the latter, the overwhelming Dem registration should keep her in safe territory. I imagine we’re looking at a voter model which mirrors something like…
Democrat – 46%
Republican – 27%
Independent – 27%
Gillibrand – 93%/7%/55% = 60%
Blakeman/Malpass – 7%/83%/40% = 36%
DioGuardi – 0%/10%/5% = 4%
For Republicans, I suspect a best-case-scenario “dream model” would look something like…
Democrat – 45%
Republican – 30%
Independent – 25%
Gillibrand – 85%/3%/43% = 50%
Blakeman/Malpass – 15%/93%/55% = 48%
DioGuardi – 0%/4%/2% = 2%
In this (highly-unlikely) scenario, Gillibrand bleeds conservative Dems and many moderate Independents to the GOP ticket, while DioGuardi implodes, failing to gain any real traction among the far-right who might be weary about Blakeman or Malpass. Even so, Gillibrand still eeks out a win.
What a mess the GOP would be in if other states across the nation had a Conservative ballot line.
I wouldn’t count DioGuardi out that quickly. Sure, he is at a disadvantage right now, but the fact that he won the Conservative Party line shows that New Yorkers want some real conservatism, no more RINOS and no more terrible candidates like Malpass or Blakeman. Look, the numbers don’t lie, but I think youre underestimating just how much DioGuardi can notch out for himself, and how much of a squeeze he can put on the others running.
@jsellnyc sums it up perfectly: do not count Joe DioGuardi out. He received the Conservative Party nomination with over 69% of the vote at the convention. This nomination will prove to be very important in the Senate race, since no Republican has won statewide office in New York without support from the Conservative Party in over 35 years. DioGuardi is a true representative of the people and, if given the chance, he will definitely give Gillibrand, Blakeman and Malpass a run for their money.