CA-Sen, CA-Gov: No Surprises, It’s Whitman and Fiorina

SurveyUSA for KABC, KFSN, KGTV, and KPIX (6/3-6, likely voters, 5/21-23 in parens):

Carly Fiorina (R): 48 (46)

Tom Campbell (R): 22 (23)

Chuck DeVore (R): 16 (14)

Other: 4 (6)

Undecided: 9 (11)

Meg Whitman (R): 59 (54)

Steve Poizner (R): 30 (27)

Other: 6 (10)

Undecided: 5 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

SurveyUSA is seeing what pretty much everyone else is seeing, that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have their respective GOP primaries nailed down. Their numbers haven’t changed much at all over the last couple weeks, but remember that when the previous SurveyUSA poll came out, the numbers seemed rather dramatic: there had been a major tightening between Whitman and Steve Poizner in early May (which then quickly dissipated), and they were one of the first to give a substantial lead to Fiorina instead of Tom Campbell. Looks like they did a good job of honing in on the ultimate trends.

Below the two marquee races, there’s also a treasure trove of interesting information in the rest of the SurveyUSA data (some of which was in a separate release, here). And, no, I’m not counting the Democratic gubernatorial primary as “interesting” (where Jerry Brown leads Richard Aguirre 73-4). In the Democratic race to be Jerry Brown’s #2, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom is in pole position; he leads LA city councilor Janice Hahn 43-27. Abel Maldonado, the incumbent GOP Lt. Governor, is in the lead despite teabagger discontent over his various apostasies; he leads conservative ex-state Sen. Sam Aanestad 26-16, with another 26 scattered among various others.

In the AG’s race, the leading Democratic contender is San Francisco DA Kamala Harris, although she has only a narrow lead over Facebook attorney Chris Kelly and former LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo; her lead is 26-20-16, with Pedro Nava at 8, Ted Lieu and Alberto Torrico at 6, and Mike Schmier at 2. On the GOP side, Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley is in the lead at 30, followed by state Sen. Tom Harman at 25 and former law school dean John Eastman at 19.

And SurveyUSA has poll results on all those delightful initiatives in which the corporations and their paid signature gatherers people get to exert direct democracy. Proposition 13 is, like its 70s namesake, designed to limit property taxes, although here it just prevents reassessment after buildings’ values go up after earthquake retrofitting. “Yes” is leading, 49-26. Proposition 14 is maybe the most attention-getting one, as it’s a proposal to switch to a Washington-style top-two primary system; apparently people like that idea, as “Yes” leads 50-28 (I know lots of people are up in arms about that, but speaking as a Washingtonian, the change has had little practical effect other than rendering third parties even more irrelevant than before).

Proposition 15 is a proposal to introduce public funding of political campaigns (although it’s baby steps, starting only with the next SoS race); despite the baby steps, it seems unlikely to pass, with “No” leading 46-29. Proposition 16, which would require an onerous 2/3rds majority before local governments could use public funding to expand electricity service (and which is the subject of huge amounts of money poured in by the state’s utilities), is the closest-looking race, with “No” currently leading 45-41. And finally, Proposition 17 allows insurance companies to base prices on a driver’s insurance coverage history; “Yes” leads 43-39. Hooray for insurance companies!