Quinnipiac (6/2-8, likely voters, no trendlines):
Rick Scott (R): 44
Bill McCollum (R): 31
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Kendrick Meek (D): 29
Jeff Greene (D): 27
Maurice Ferre (D): 3
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Here’s a “holy crap!” moment from Quinnipiac: the two random sketchy ultra-wealthy guys, Rick Scott and Jeff Greene, whose entries into the GOP gubernatorial primary and Democratic Senate primary (respectively) initially seemed like go-nowhere vanity projects, are actually in serious contention thanks to lavish TV spending.
In particular, Rick Scott (former CEO for hospital corporation Columbia/HCA) has shot ahead of Bill McCollum. Scott’s favorables are a very high 40/12 among GOPers, indicating that McCollum’s (or Mary Cheney’s, really) attempts to point out that whole Medicare fraud thing on Scott’s part have gotten drowned out by the sheer volume of Scott’s advertising. Of course, it doesn’t look like McCollum has gotten too badly harmed by Rentboy; he’s also a 41/19 among GOPers, so he might be able to fight his way back if he can find his financial footing, ad-wise.
Jeff Greene, the derivatives pioneer who increased his fortune betting on an economic collapse caused in part by those same derivatives, isn’t leading, but is nipping at Kendrick Meek’s heels in the Democratic Senate primary. Meek has spent little on advertising so far, so despite his institutional frontrunner status, he isn’t particularly better-known than Greene right now.
Quinnipiac released its general election numbers separately:
Quinnipiac (6/2-8, registered voters, 4/8-13 in parentheses (Sen, Gov)):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (24)
Marco Rubio (R): 33 (30)
Charlie Crist (I): 37 (32)
Undecided: 11 (13)Jeff Greene (D): 14
Marco Rubio (R): 33
Charlie Crist (I): 40
Undecided: 11
Alex Sink (D): 32
Rick Scott (R): 42
Undecided: 21Alex Sink (D): 34 (36)
Bill McCollum (R): 42 (40)
Undecided: 19 (21)
(MoE: ±2.9%)Alex Sink (D): 26
Rick Scott (R): 35
Bud Chiles (I) : 13
Undecided: 23Alex Sink (D): 25
Bill McCollum (R): 33
Bud Chiles (I) : 19
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Charlie Crist may actually be able to thread the needle here (especially if he gets an assist from Jeff Greene, as Crist breaks off an extra 3% from the Dem column if it’s Greene instead of Meek); he leads Marco Rubio in both configurations, thanks to, if you believe the trendlines, eating up a further share of Dem votes.
Things aren’t looking so good for Alex Sink in the gubernatorial race, with similar underperformances against both Scott and McCollum. (Interestingly — and I don’t know if this is a trend or a blip — Rasmussen finds the Governor’s race a much better bet for the Dems right now than Quinnipiac does.)
It looks like Quinnipiac added a Bud Chiles option mid-sample once the indie candidate announced (as explained by the higher MoE on the three-ways). Despite his Democratic lineage, Chiles’ entry doesn’t seem to hurt Sink disproportionately, as he seems to have enough Dixiecrat appeal to draw equally from both column D and column R. The 8-to-9 point margins between the Rs and Sink remains unchanged with Chiles in the mix.
Crist is going to have to say who he will caucus with. If it’s the dems, with these kinds of leads, I’m in.
My thoughts are the numbers are ok. For Alex Sink, the only reason she isn’t more competitive is because she isn’t well know and has done no ads. Through news reports, she plans to spend $30 million on her campaign and will began advertising in August. Also, she does have a vast amount of her own money if needed to throw in. I think, she should start advertising now, but in the end I believe she will win this. The two gop guys, I can’t figure which one I’d rather see her go against. I’m kinda pulling for Rick Scott, only because of his insane baggage. Alex Sink is a strong business woman with no baggage and has proven before she can pull in typically gop voters. When voters are faced with a businessman who has incredible baggage and a businesswoman with no baggage I think they will choose Sink.
As for the senate race, I’m 100% for Meek, if he wins the primary, which I think he will, I will support him over Crist. If Jeff Greene wins, I will 100% support Crist! Thats all I will say about that race.
Regarding FL-Sen, Greene polling so well this quickly in the primary tells me Meek is a goner and Crist will end up the de facto Democrat. And Crist will beat Rubio.
Greene will force Meek to spend all his money hitting Greene just to get out of the primary, the situation made worse for Meek by the primary being so late that there’s no time to raise money for November. Florida being a big state, you need lots of cash fast, and Meek’s fundraising pace just isn’t good enough to accomplish that.
Meek may or may not win the primary, but if he does, he’ll be plum broke and invisible in October and November and will end up likely no better than Alan Schlesinger territory. If Greene is the nominee, he’s going to find out that while you can just buy a primary win in a big state where money and ads rule, you can’t win that way in November…you gotta penetrate more resistent voters, and that takes skill and discipline in self-defining, in attacking opponents, and in field organizing. I doubt he’ll be up to the task.
All this means that Crist, if he doesn’t implode in his own right which he’s not done, keeps is pan-partisan colition intact while becoming the de facto Democrat, and he wins. Really, Crist is following the Lieberman model in reverse, looking to consolidate “opposite” party support while keeping a sizeable minority of his former party’s voters.
Of course, all this assumes Crist is able to raise some money at a semi-competent pace to supplement the many millions he’s already got. No longer having a primary helps Crist a lot on the money front.
All in all Jeff Greene is Charlie Crist’s best friend.
Regarding FL-Gov, I’m stunned Bud Chiles polls so well right out of the gate, given the inability of other legacy candidates to use name recognition the same way. I imagine Chiles’ polling strength reflects anti-establishment sentiment, especially since he seems to damage both major party candidates. I still expect him to fade very badly over time, with no money or other means of drawing serious positive attention in what is too huge state to get voters’ attention without many millions of dollars.
Dems are blowing a golden opportunity in the governor’s race. And “Bud” Chiles being in certainly doesn’t help one bit.
Geeze, I said Greene was one of my favorite candidates of the cycle because he was to laugh at not because I wanted him to torpedo Meek. Someone needs to start a 527 in Florida against Greene making some sort of argument against naked credit default swaps that people will get.
Some of this pro-Crist rhetoric on here is troubling, this better not be coming from the same folks who were supporting Sestak, because Crist is to the right of Specter in my estimation unless someone has hard evidence to the contrary.
…about greene being a crook. i think he is just another rich guy playing politics. he does seem to be making a big play in the jewish community in south florida. it remains to be seen how far that will get him.
A win is a win. Meek has seriously disappointed me and his ethics make me nauseous. And I would sooner support Rubio over that Greene guy. So with all of this in consideration I am now supporting Crist. I am doing this assuming he will likely caucus with us, but knowing that even if he doesn’t he will constantly be a thorn in the back of Republicans. I did not want too but Meek’s ethics and overall unelectability in hand make Crist the reasonable choice.
Let’s hope Chiles crashes and burns like Pete Jr. did in the Republican primary in New Mexico. Why would anyone want to vote for Chiles? All he appears to offer is a famous name and nothing else. Blah….
he’ll spend a fortune promoting a decent agenda, which will work against rubio and ensure Crist wins.
With Rubio at the expected 33%, there is no way for a Democrat to win without getting more votes than Crist, and that just ain’t gonna happen (short of two major blunders).
Do what Sestak did. Many people, myself among them, were very doubtful he could beat Specter yet he knew what he was doing. I’m willing to give Sink the benefit of the doubt here.