StephenCLE’s House Predictions 2010 – June Ratings Update

So here’s the other side of Capitol Hill, and the view from it this month.  Since starting this projection back in February, the red wave has grown marginally every month that I’ve gone forward.  This month, at the margins, the wave is continuing to grow higher even though the ratings changes were much more split.  There were fewer ratings changes this month than last month as well, 17 of them in total.  I’ll run through them quickly, but first a bit of housekeeping.  

Up to this point, I have been purposely keeping on the watch list (likely D to likely R range) races in which an incumbent is facing a PVI of more than 13 points in favor of the opposite party.  This month I do away with that rule, which impacted a few races.  Also, up to this point I’ve been following Charlie Cook’s custom of never putting an incumbent in a worse position than tossup unless their PVI was overwhelmingly in favor of the opposition party.  This month I’ve thrown that rule away as well, although there were only a few cases in which I thought about moving an incumbent into underdog status.

So from now on, it’s all gut instinct.  Onto this month’s ratings changes:

1.Minnesota-7 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I was holding out on this race because of the toughness of Peterson’s district, but seeing how the republicans didn’t get any solid candidates of note into this race, it’s moving off the board.  

2.California-11 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – This race kinda caught me off guard, but I do think Jerry McNerney is in a lot more trouble than I would have thought a few months ago.  David Harmer, who performed very well against John Garamendi in CA-10 last year, steamrolled to a victory in the republican primary here yesterday.  I think he’s very legitimate.  Worse, since both of the statewide races are closer than the presidential race was in 2004 or 2008, it’s likely that Whitman/Fiorina will carry this district up-ballot, which will put a lot of pressure on McNerney to get voters to split their tickets.  The way I see it, this race is right in the same boat as CA-3 now.

3.Illinois-11 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – I’m really not feeling bullish about Debbie Halvorson’s chances in this district anymore, not necessarily because of what she’s done personally, but because the democratic brand in Illinois seems to be going to hell in a handbasket.  With the top of the ticket of Quinn and Giannoulias likely to get demolished here in November, I think as a freshman, Halvorson is really going to have to hustle to offset the coming red wave here.  Also, the Illinois districts could be particularly vulnerable to a wave because of the home state effect in 2008 making the PVIs here look better than they really are.  And then there’s the fact that polling has her behind republican challenge Adam Kinzinger

4.Illinois-14 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – See Illinois-11 above.  Bill Foster’s district is politically very similar to Halvorson’s, and if she’s losing to a ragtag operation like Adam Kinzinger’s campaign, you know Foster can’t be in a much better position.  Thus, he gets dropped as well.

5.New York-13 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – Mike McMahon’s position has greatly improved in the past month.  Facing a challenge from the working family’s party and a unified attack from the right, things didn’t look good.  But now the GOP and conservative parties in New York are now fighting again, and the WFP doesn’t to be in a position to mount much of a challenge.  It’s possible that the republican and conservative lines will be split a la NY-23 in 2009.

6.Ohio-16 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up/Dem Retention – This one I’m moving mostly based on what I’m seeing on the ground here in northeast Ohio.  The Medina County GOP’s infamous mailer about nearby congresswoman Betty Sutton “getting thrown out of the house and into the kitchen” seems to be a reflection of how things are going in the rural reaches of Boccieri’s district.  Though that crap is hugely unpopular in metro Cleveland, this district is a little further out, exurby type, and the tea party seems to be organizing well here.  Republican candidate Jim Renacci has been strong to this point.  I now think that despite Boccieri’s almost star status in the Ohio GOP, that this district might be shifting under his feet a bit, and his vote for HCR really sent some people into a tizzy.  Toss up.

7.Ohio-13 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – While we’re talking about it, that controversial and sexist mailer from the Medina County GOP was an unexpected punch to the gut for Tom Ganley in his bid to unseat Betty Sutton.  Sutton has now picked up a lot of sympathy from locals here in Ohio-13, particularly from women voters.  OH-13, my home district, is a mix of upscale suburbs and working class industrial areas south and west of Cleveland, and this kind of stuff doesn’t play well here.  While Ganley’s favorables probably haven’t been affected, Sutton’s have probably seen a nice bump.

8.California-3 – Toss Up/Dem Takeover to Toss Up/Rep Retention – I admit it, from the start I was perhaps a little too bullish on this district.  I think that even though California is blue and likes Obama, and even though Ami Bera is still out-campaigning and out-fundraising incumbent Dan Lungren, the inevitable wins at the top of the ticket here by Whitman and Fiorina are going to be very tough to overcome.  So I dial down the enthusiasm a bit here.

9.Idaho-1 – Toss Up/Rep Takeover to Toss Up/Dem Retention – This is a very unusual race to look at.  On one hand, the district is extremely conservative, and really all the republican nominee should have to say is “he voted for Pelosi” and it’s over.  But strangely, and I know his voting record has been conservative but still, Walt Minnick has been able to get most of ID-1 to like him enough to where they look beyond his party affiliation.  The great thing is that the GOP has botched this one up from the beginning too, as NRCC pick Vaughn Ward went Bill Sali 2.0 and went up in flames.  At this point, I gotta like Minnick’s chances at a retention.

10.Iowa-3 – Toss Up/Rep Takeover to Toss Up/Dem Retention – Walt Minnick isn’t the only incumbent looking better today.  Leonard Boswell’s chances went up following Tuesday night’s primary as the NRCC and the republican establishment screwed the pooch here too.  Their fave, and probably their best candidate, wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, fell against state senator Brad Zaun, who was reportedly a target of republican offers as power brokers tried to get him out of the race.  Given this dynamic, I wonder if the republican electorate could end up somewhat divided.  Either way, Boswell is probably the favorite now to retain the seat despite what could be a scary situation up-ballot with Terry Branstad and Chuck Grassley zooming to victory.

11.New Mexico-2 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Takeover – Once again, here’s a race that’s less about the candidate than what is going on around him/her.  A month ago, it appeared that Harry Teague would be getting some nice up-ballot coattails from Diane Denish in the governor’s race.  But now that race has turned into a toss up thanks to the emergence of Susana Martinez on the GOP side.  That means that she’ll be carrying NM-2 in that race, probably handily, and that puts Teague on the defensive against Pearce, who has lots of money and will likely be hammering Teague over his cap-n-trade vote, which was very unpopular here.

12.Pennsylvania-6 – Toss Up Dem Takeover to Lean Republican – This race has changed a lot in the past month as well.  I rated this race a great chance for a democratic takeover mostly because of Gerlach’s getting out and flip-flopping, as well as Doug Pike’s strong financial backing.  But now that his campaign flamed out miserably and Minan Trevedi won the democratic nomination, I don’t see a pickup as very likely anymore.  Maybe Trevedi could win an open seat, but in this environment, beating Gerlach is going to be an uphill climb.

13.Pennsylvania-12 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Lean Democrat – I had figured that Mark Critz would defeat Tim Burns in the special election last month, but I wouldn’t have expected a 9-point cruise.  In the wake of that result, I feel good enough moving this race to lean.

14.Arkansas-2 – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – With Joyce Elliott’s win in last night’s AR-2 runoff, I really don’t feel good about this race anymore.  Tim Griffin’s road just got a lot easier, presumably because Elliott is more liberal than Wills would have been, and there’s also that sticky fact of her being a black woman in one of the most racist states in the nation in terms of voting habits.

15.Illinois-13 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – The bad top of the ticket for Team Blue kills it for Scott Harper, who couldn’t even beat Judy Biggert in a solidly democratic year, much less a bad one.

16.Arkansas-1 – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Lean Republican – I think I erred on this seat a bit when I moved it back into the democratic column.  The way things are going in Arkansas, Generic R could beat just about any democrat.  The red wave is going to crest really, really high in Arkansas this year, and Boozman will be providing coattails.  Chad Causey will have to run a perfect campaign and make things local in nature to have much of any shot.

17.Utah-2 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I was holding out on this race to see if the Republicans could put up a halfway decent challenger to Jim Matheson.  Well, they haven’t, and even in a district this conservative, I feel good about moving this one off the board.  You have to wonder if Matheson will go for the Senate in 2012, especially if Orrin Hatch gets teabagged and/or retires.

Total House Math for June:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +25

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (29) – WV-1, AR-2, LA-3, TN-6, IN-8, KS-3, NH-2, NY-29, AL-2, CO-4, FL-2, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NH-1, NY-24, ND-1, OH-1, PA-11, TN-4, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, AR-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AR-1, PA-6, CA-3, NM-2

Republican to Democrat – IA-3, ID-1

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 165 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-12, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-2, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, UT-2, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 28 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-36 (Harman)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 22 seats:

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 39 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 12 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-48 (Campbell)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Souder)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Tennessee-6 (Open)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Solid Rep – 151 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1