So I’ve made some predictions about 2010, using 2004 and 2006 partisan turnout data and ascribing percentages to each candidate for each party affiliation in my own, subjective way. The polling industry has failed us this cycle, so I’m ignoring the polls and going with my gut. I am only predicting races where the primaries are over, as I did not want to guess who is going to win primaries. That would be too speculative even for me! And obviously, these are predictions of the two-way vote. Pickups are in bold.
AL-SEN – Shelby (R) 65, Barnes (D) 35 – No trouble for Shelby.
AR-SEN – Boozman (R) 56, Lincoln (D) 43 – Very little shot for Lincoln here.
CA-SEN – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 48 – Boxer is a flawed candidate, but she will hold on.
IA-SEN – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 43 – Conlin a strong challenger, but not this year.
ID-SEN – Crapo (R) 75, Sullivan (D) 24 – Sullivan is not a serious challenger.
IL-SEN – Giannoulias (D) 50.2, Kirk (R) 49.8 – Good thing “none of the above” not on the ballot.
IN-SEN – Coates (R) 53, Ellsworth (D) 46 – Too tough a year for Ellsworth to get over the hump.
KY-SEN – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 49 – Paul makes more unforced errors; Conway consolidates Dems.
ND-SEN – Hoeven (R) 67, Potter (D) 32 – Easy pickup.
NV-SEN – Angle (R) 50, Reid (D) 49 – Harry Reid is just THAT unpopular. We seem to be forgetting that.
OH-SEN – Portman (R) 51, Fisher (D) 49 – Portman cash advantage proves too much.
OR-SEN – Wyden (D) 56, Huffman (R) 44 – No cakewalk, but Wyden stays on his game and wins.
PA-SEN – Sestak (D) 52, Toomey (R) 48 – PA says no to Santorum II.
SC-SEN – Demint (R) 75, Greene (D) 25 – Please go away, Alvin!
SD-SEN – Thune (R) unopposed.
AR-GOV – Beebe (D) 64, Keet (R) 35 – Smooth sailing for Beebe.
CA-GOV – Brown (D) 52, Whitman (R) 48 – Whitman’s millions hard to overcome, but Brown can do it.
IA-GOV – Branstad (R) 60, Culver (D) 40 – Culver’s approvals are low and Branstad is just too tough.
ID-GOV – Otter (R) 60, Allred (D) 39 – Allred could compete in a different cycle.
IL-GOV – Brady (R) 52, Quinn (D) 48 – Quinn is VERY unpopular.
ME-GOV – Mitchell (D) 52, LePage (R) 47 – LePage a little too teabaggy for Maine.
NE-GOV – Heineman (R) 69, Lakers (D) 30 – Lakers a non-trivial candidate, but will not be close.
NM-GOV – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Martinez steals some Hispanic Dems, but not enough.
NV-GOV – Sandoval (R) 59, Reid (D) 41 – Whose idea was it to get behind Rory Reid?
OH-GOV – Strickland (D) 50.4, Kasich (R) 49.6 – Don’t think much of Kasich as a candidate.
OR-GOV – Kitzhaber (D) 52, Dudley (R) 48 – This will be no cakewalk for Kitz, but he pulls through.
PA-GOV – Corbett (R) 52, Onorato (D) 48 – Onorato will grow on PA voters, but not enough.
SD-GOV – Daugaard (R) 56, Heidepreim (D) 44 – Heidepreim runs pretty strong in a tough year.
TX-GOV – Perry (R) 51, White (D) 49 – White wins Indies comfortably, but still not enough.
The only things I might have different is that I think Republicans will win either IL-Sen or KY-Sen (probably Kentucky). Also, I don’t think Fiorina or Huffman will get that close.
I think that the worst-case scenario for Rand Paul has probably already happened, and he’s still got a decent lead. If his new campaign chief helps keep him on a short leash (and it seems like he is, with Paul’s comments distancing himself from libertarianism recently), I don’t see him losing in a Republican year.
NV-Sen: Yes Reid is that unpopular, but Angle really is THAT BATSHIT CRAZY. There is more material to use against her than against Rand Paul. She sends shivers down the spine of any Democrat who learns about her, and Reid and the DSCC and DNC will waste no effort to make sure the state’s Democratic base learns about her. Her nomination will drive up base Democratic turnout for Reid even among Democrats who dislike Reid and otherwise might stay home, and that will matter. And some signifcant fraction of independents will balk at voting for Angle. Some indies and soft partisans who planned on voting Republican will either vote for Reid or leave that line blank on the ballot.
It’s not literally true that just anyone can beat Reid. Voters have limits. And Angle crosses a line that I’m very confident a lot of swing voters won’t cross.
And you’re definitely off on the percentages, the two won’t combine for 99% of votes. With so much other stuff driving turnout, a lot of people showing up to vote for Governor and Congress and state legislative seats and local offices will vote “none of the above” or for minor candidates in NV-Sen. If it’s a one-point race, 45-44 is a far more reasonable guess than 50-49. I considered that perhaps you’re focused on two-party vote share and deliberately excluding other voters for this exercise, but that you left 1% unaccounted left that unclear, and in any case I think NV-Sen is unique where a clear analysis can’t be done without considering who won’t cast a Senate vote at all.
I know everyone calls NV-Sen a tossup now and not lean D, and I don’t argue with that at all as it’s the only reasonable place to put it. But if you’re forced to pick a winner, I really just don’t believe purple-state voters, in a state with so many people of color, in 2010, will allow Sharron Angle to become a United States Senator. The barrage against her will be too intense, and the ads virtually write themselves. For Angle to win, both Reid will have to campaign badly and Angle will have to show unprecedented (for her) messaging discipline. The former can happen but is unlikely as Reid has proven himself a strong campaigner every time, and I don’t think the latter is possible. Remember this is a lady who, without a hint of hesitation, told a Talking Points Memo reporter a couple months ago she was a member of the batshit crazy conspiracy-mongering Oath Keepers.
Really, the only way I see Reid actually losing to Angle is if we have a double-dip recession or some other disastrous crisis that sweeps our entire party under the bus, campaigns and candidates be damned.
even with Quinn’s approval numbers, I really can’t believe that the state would actually vote in Brady. (or maybe I’m just in denial since I would be affected by Brady’s reign of uber-conservatism…)
For whatever it’s worth (probably not much).
In order: I think Boxer will defeat Fiorina more heavily than that because Fiorina’s record sucks. I’ll predict an 8-point victory.
I expect Reid to squeak to victory but don’t dispute your logic or conclusion.
I think your margin is too small for Sestak; I’m predicting at least a 5-point win, and probably greater.
We disagree on Ohio; I think Fisher is gonna win and would reverse your margin.
But no way does Greene get 25 percent in SC. I’ll give him 18.
I think LePage is going to get less than 47 points. Maine is a moderate-to-liberal state. I’ll call that election 58-42 for Mitchell. But I don’t know how the candidates will campaign, so it’s a big crap shoot.
I also don’t see how Illinois is going to elect someone that hard right, so it’s hard for me not to predict a narrow victory for Quinn, like 50.5-49.5.
On the other hand, I think your margin in NV is too small. Rory Reid seems to be very unpopular, and it’s hard for me to imagine him getting 41%. I’ll call that Sandoval 64-36. Yes, that bad.
Fiorina is the flawed candidate.
IL-SEN: All of the brouhaha about Kirk’s military record has turned a lot of people off, and gotten that already stale story about Giannoulias’s questionable investments out of the news cycle. It’ll still be closer than it should be because Giannoulias is a weak candidate, I was betting against him earlier in the cycle, but now that Kirk has blown up I’d be very surprised if Giannoulias lost. Persistently lying about your military record has legs with exactly the sort of moderates that Kirk needs to win, especially if you’re a Republican.
IN-SEN: I buy that a lot of people will just cast a knee-jerk vote for Coats, but if you look at jeffmd’s maps from a couple of weeks ago, there’s a HUGE swath of the Republican electorate that just plain hates Coats and won’t lift a finger for him. Ellsworth will carry CD8 (his base) in a landslide, will have no trouble with CD7 (Indianapolis), and should play pretty well in most of the rest of the state as well, especially CD3 – ironically, if Marlin Stutzman is the nominee for IN-03, it could actually help Ellsworth by driving Stutzman fans to the polls, most of whom are still bitter from the primary and will resolutely NOT vote for Coats – some of those votes will be going Ellsworth’s way. I grant it’s a tough year, but Ellsworth fits the state like a glove, Coats is a horrible candidate, and the dynamics of the race are fairly unconventional by national (but not by Indiana) standards.
OR-SEN: Um, no. Simply no. Ron Wyden is the most popular politician in the state. In 2004, a year when Bush still did pretty well in Oregon despite Kerry improving on Gore’s razor-thin 2000 victory, Wyden managed to carry 33 out of 36 counties. That is completely amazing for any Democrat, let alone one from Portland. Merkley, by contrast, carried 8 counties when he narrowly beat Smith in ’08 – the liberal ones. Wyden won’t do quite as well this year, of course, but you’re seriously underestimating him. I’d be surprised if Huffman broke 35%.
Same with OR-GOV. Kitzhaber was the most popular governor in the last 20 years. Chris Dudley is tall. That you have this race even close to Dudley winning is baffling to me. You’re really underestimating Oregon voters.
I think in general, you’re being a bit too pessimistic. A lot of the races that you think will be close won’t be THAT close. Some (such as AR-SEN, ND-SEN, etc.) I buy, but those are the easy ones to call. We know we’ve lost them now, so the precise margin by which Hoeven or Boozman steamrolls is pretty much irrelevant. Most of it is still way too far off to call.
In short, lighten up, dude. It’s a good effort, and we’re definitely going to lose some seats, but I don’t think we’re quite this screwed, at least not yet.
was that Arkansas, in contrast with the rest of the country, had worse Democratic turnout as a percentage in 2008 than in either 2006 or 2004. And it wasn’t close. AR completely blew the national trend. That actually gives me a tiny (and I mean tiny) bit of hope for Blanche. AR behaved very abnormally in 2008, presumably Dem turnout was depressed because Hillary was defeated. If the D-R split returns to what it was in 2006 (D+10), Blanche could make it competitive. If it is what is was in 2008 (D+4) or worse, probably not so much.
I think your prediction is a little pessimistic for some races (Oregon, California, Ohio, Illinois and NV-Sen) but is easier tell that than make all the predictions. I appreciate your work.