So I’ve made some predictions about 2010, using 2004 and 2006 partisan turnout data and ascribing percentages to each candidate for each party affiliation in my own, subjective way. The polling industry has failed us this cycle, so I’m ignoring the polls and going with my gut. I am only predicting races where the primaries are over, as I did not want to guess who is going to win primaries. That would be too speculative even for me! And obviously, these are predictions of the two-way vote. Pickups are in bold.
AL-SEN – Shelby (R) 65, Barnes (D) 35 – No trouble for Shelby.
AR-SEN – Boozman (R) 56, Lincoln (D) 43 – Very little shot for Lincoln here.
CA-SEN – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 48 – Boxer is a flawed candidate, but she will hold on.
IA-SEN – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 43 – Conlin a strong challenger, but not this year.
ID-SEN – Crapo (R) 75, Sullivan (D) 24 – Sullivan is not a serious challenger.
IL-SEN – Giannoulias (D) 50.2, Kirk (R) 49.8 – Good thing “none of the above” not on the ballot.
IN-SEN – Coates (R) 53, Ellsworth (D) 46 – Too tough a year for Ellsworth to get over the hump.
KY-SEN – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 49 – Paul makes more unforced errors; Conway consolidates Dems.
ND-SEN – Hoeven (R) 67, Potter (D) 32 – Easy pickup.
NV-SEN – Angle (R) 50, Reid (D) 49 – Harry Reid is just THAT unpopular. We seem to be forgetting that.
OH-SEN – Portman (R) 51, Fisher (D) 49 – Portman cash advantage proves too much.
OR-SEN – Wyden (D) 56, Huffman (R) 44 – No cakewalk, but Wyden stays on his game and wins.
PA-SEN – Sestak (D) 52, Toomey (R) 48 – PA says no to Santorum II.
SC-SEN – Demint (R) 75, Greene (D) 25 – Please go away, Alvin!
SD-SEN – Thune (R) unopposed.
AR-GOV – Beebe (D) 64, Keet (R) 35 – Smooth sailing for Beebe.
CA-GOV – Brown (D) 52, Whitman (R) 48 – Whitman’s millions hard to overcome, but Brown can do it.
IA-GOV – Branstad (R) 60, Culver (D) 40 – Culver’s approvals are low and Branstad is just too tough.
ID-GOV – Otter (R) 60, Allred (D) 39 – Allred could compete in a different cycle.
IL-GOV – Brady (R) 52, Quinn (D) 48 – Quinn is VERY unpopular.
ME-GOV – Mitchell (D) 52, LePage (R) 47 – LePage a little too teabaggy for Maine.
NE-GOV – Heineman (R) 69, Lakers (D) 30 – Lakers a non-trivial candidate, but will not be close.
NM-GOV – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Martinez steals some Hispanic Dems, but not enough.
NV-GOV – Sandoval (R) 59, Reid (D) 41 – Whose idea was it to get behind Rory Reid?
OH-GOV – Strickland (D) 50.4, Kasich (R) 49.6 – Don’t think much of Kasich as a candidate.
OR-GOV – Kitzhaber (D) 52, Dudley (R) 48 – This will be no cakewalk for Kitz, but he pulls through.
PA-GOV – Corbett (R) 52, Onorato (D) 48 – Onorato will grow on PA voters, but not enough.
SD-GOV – Daugaard (R) 56, Heidepreim (D) 44 – Heidepreim runs pretty strong in a tough year.
TX-GOV – Perry (R) 51, White (D) 49 – White wins Indies comfortably, but still not enough.