WA-Sen: Murray Leads, Didier Goes to DC

Elway Poll (6/9-13, registered voters, 4/29-5/2 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (51)

Dino Rossi (R): 40 (34)

Undecided: 13 (15)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (50)

Paul Akers (R): 33 (26)

Undecided: 20 (24)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (50)

Clint Didier (R): 32 (24)

Undecided: 22 (26)

(MoE: ±5%)

Elway’s last poll of the Washington Senate race, taken before Dino Rossi made his entry official, had seemed a little optimistic; a 17-point lead is pretty showy in a state where a Republican is guaranteed at least 40% in a statewide race just for showing up (but where 50% is nearly impossible). A 7-point lead is very plausible.

I’d be curious to see Elway (or anyone else… maybe PPP will finally poll Washington?) take a look at the Republican primary, which in the wake of the robust showing for support for Clint Didier at the state convention last weekend and the ‘meh’ that greeted Dino Rossi, looks like it could turn very interesting. (OK, the “top two” primary, which would require polling Murray, Rossi, Didier, and Paul Akers all in one big pile.) In fact, with a Sarah Palin endorsement boosting him, Beltway Republicans are actually starting to have to take notice of Didier: he’s going to be meeting in DC this week with staff from the RNC and the NRSC (which just finished laboriously recruiting Rossi into the race).

UPDATE: Apparently Elway has polled the “top two” primary as well, but those numbers didn’t start making the rounds until later today. The results (bearing in mind that all candidates are thrown together in one pool) are: Murray 43, Rossi 31, Didier 5, and Akers 2. For those who don’t like to do their own math, that combined GOP vote is 38. Didier is also out with a breathless tweet today announcing that he just met Ron Paul today while in DC! It was teh awesome! It makes him “want to fight harder for Liberty!” (Well, except for Liberty from all those farm subsidies…)

43 thoughts on “WA-Sen: Murray Leads, Didier Goes to DC”

  1. I mean, come on, he is a two time loser, it’s like running Alan keys, he has not proven to be electorally viable yet, and going against an incumbent sure doesn’t help.

  2. Murray will win, but it will take more work than it would have otherwise.

    Maybe Didier will knock off Rossi and end our troubles there, or maybe the early signs of Rossi’s half-assed campaigning will prove prescient and maybe also combine with swing voters shunning early a two-time loser whose political ambitions they’re tired of litigating after two rejections.  Those are plausible scenarios going forward that could shorten our headache in this one.

    But at least for now, this is one more seat that requires more work and more money that Democrats would rather spend elsewhere.  I realize that maybe Murray eventually can dispatch Rossi without any outside help, but the fact this race now has to be on our radar screen is headache enough.  This is a headache for us in the same vein that defending Mitch McConnell and Roger Wicker were for Republicans in 2008, in the sense that you had incumbents to worry about who you normally wouldn’t worry about.

  3. I don’t buy the incumbent must be at 50% narrative but for her to be at 46% against Didier is amazing.

    He hasn’t done anything and she’s already bled 10 points in a poll that generally leans to the left from past results (they had McCain at 37% in its final 2008 poll).

    How long before Gregoire starts rubbing off on Murray?  Gregoire and Granholm are two of the most hated governors in the country, right ahead of Arnold and Christie.

  4. I’d also be interested in what level of support the conservative activist is getting against Mike Castle in the Delaware Senate Republican primary.

  7. I thought that Washington had the top two jungle-style primary where the top two vote getters progressed to the general election.  If that’s the case, I’d like to see the numbers for that election.  I seriously doubt any of the GOPers are above 25%.  

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