• FL-Sen: Politico has a new FL-Sen piece provocatively titled “Democrats flirt with backing Charlie Crist,” but it points to some definitely solidifying conventional wisdom: that Crist, who has been steadily moving to the left in his independent bid, is becoming more appealing to local Dem power brokers as something of a de facto Dem candidate. This is especially the case if Jeff Greene, who has no base and a truckload of vulnerabilities, somehow spends his way into snatching the Dem nomination from Kendrick Meek. Along those lines, Crist‘s latest repositioning is on the issue of travel to Cuba, where he’d previously backed restrictions on travel and remittances but is now moving more in line with freer Democratic positions.
• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall got an endorsement from MoveOn with less than a week to go until the Senate runoff against Cal Cunningham. It’s kind of late in the game, but MoveOn money may fund some last-minute ground-pounding.
• NV-Sen: Why do I have the feeling that Sharron Angle is going to get her own bullet every morning filled with the latest crazy revelations about her? I don’t even know where to begin: hot on the heels of revelations that she used to be a member of the right-wing Independent American Party in the 1990s (which she left because of political expedience to run for state Assembly) comes today’s revelations that in the 1980s she left the Republican Party at the height of the Reagan era to become a… Democrat? (She says she did so to help a conservative Dem with his state Senate campaign.) Well, now she can claim she’s tripartisan. Also from yesterday were, of course, revelations that in January of this year she floated the possibility of armed insurrection if Congress “keeps going the way it is.”
With the NRSC playing whack-a-mole with daily Angle bombshells, John Cornyn says he’ll be rolling her out verrrrrrry slowly… it’ll be “a few weeks” before she’s ready to take questions from the press. This comes on top of several stories about Cornyn’s more centrist colleagues cautiously distancing themselves from Angle, with Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe saying they aren’t getting involved, and Dick Lugar taking exception to most of her key action items. At least Jim DeMint is coming to her rescue, paying for some IEs on her behalf out of his PAC money.
• MI-Gov (pdf): Magellan’s out with another public poll of a Republican primary, this time in Michigan. They find Peter Hoekstra narrowly in the lead at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Cox at 16, Mike Bouchard at 11, and Tom George at 2. Meanwhile, Cox seems to at least be winning the endorsement game; he got two more nods today, both from two of Hoekstra’s slightly more moderate House colleagues: Dave Camp and Thad McCotter. (Candice Miller, on the other hand, backed Hoekstra last week.)
• OR-Gov: Here’s quick about-face from John DiLorenzo, a Portland attorney who’d fronted himself six figures to launch an independent gubernatorial candidacy. Today he decided not to run after all; he had an interesting explanation, in that he felt that both Dem John Kitzhaber and GOPer Chris Dudley were moderate enough that there really wasn’t any room for him to carve out some space in the middle.
• NC-11: GOP nominee Jeff Miller is out with an internal poll from POS conducted several weeks ago that show him in somewhat competitive territory against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler. The poll gives Shuler a 46-34 edge over Miller. Miller is on the wrong end of 10:1 cash advantage for Shuler, but just got a FreedomWorks endorsement which may help him gain some ground.
• NJ-06: It looks like the GOP primary in the 6th, the last race from Super Duper Tuesday not to be called, is finally over. Diane Gooch, the pre-primary favorite, at least based on her NRCC backing, conceded and said she won’t seek a recount. Anna Little finished 84 votes ahead of Gooch, who endorsed Little for the run against long-time Dem Rep. Frank Pallone.
• NY-24: Here’s one more big problem for endangered Rep. Mike Arcuri: GOP opponent Richard Hanna got the endorsement of the statewide Independence Party. There’s one catch, though; the Cayuga County Independence Party isn’t on board, and say they’d prefer to endorse Arcuri (and take great issue with the selection process, or lack thereof). It’s unclear for now how the state and county parties will resolve the dispute. Hanna got the 2008 IP line, which probably helped him keep things surprisingly close that year.
• OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi was yesterday declared one of only nine GOPers who need continued financial support, largely because he’s facing a top-tier challenge from Franklin Co. Commissioner Paula Brooks. Brooks got a big fundraising boost today with an endorsement from EMILY’s List, which should help send some money in the direction of one of the few places where Dems are playing offense.
• TN-04: One more internal poll to report on, although it’s incredibly stale (from late March… however it was just brought to our attention, thanks to a tipster in the comments). A poll by Republican pollster OnMessage finds Rep. Lincoln Davis — a Dem in a terrible district but facing small-fry opposition — leads his two possible opponents, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey, by identical 44-33 margins.
• UT-02: It sounds like the GOP is still maintaining hopes of monkeying around with the Dem primary in the 2nd, as there are subtle rumblings of efforts to get teabaggers to cross over and vote for very liberal (and probably unelectable in the general) Claudia Wright instead of Rep. Jim Matheson in the Dem primary. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though, considering that those same voters would probably like to have a say in the hard-fought and likely close Republican Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater on the same day (June 22).
• WI-08: The crowd in the GOP field in the 8th is a little smaller; retired physician Marc Trager dropped out of the race, citing health reasons. He gave his backing to state Rep. Roger Roth, who still faces ex-state Rep. Terri McCormick, contractor Reid Ribble, and county supervisors Marc Savard and Andy Williams.
• VA-St. House: The GOP held seats in the state House of Delegates in two special elections last night, meaning they still control that chamber 59-39 (with 2 GOP-leaning indies). Both were in fairly red territory, but the Dems had felt they had a potentially strong candidate in HD-15 in Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner. Degner lost to Tony Wilt, 66-34. In Chesterfield County in Richmond’s suburbs, Roxanne Robinson beat William Brown with 72%.
This isn’t a criticism of anyone, but rather a reflection of my curiosity and angst regarding how much of this drip, drip, drip against Angle is being felt in-state.
We’ve learned that what happens in the Beltway sometimes stays in the Beltway, and never reaches Vegas or anywhere else. Just ask Richard Blumenthal how much a controversy picked apart in the national media matters to the Connecticut general electorate.
I know Reid is on the air, and supposedly it’s a big buy with his attack ad on Angle. I know Jon Ralston has hammered Angle pretty good. And I know a local Fox channel news reporter hammered Angle’s Fox & Friends interview.
But otherwise, does anyone know what’s happening in Nevada itself? How much of this stuff is penetrating local news or otherwise reaching average voters?
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg…
http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2…
Lots of interesting stuff, including which districts were picked and what was deemed Tier 1 v. Tier 2 seats. Also, I found interesting was the “messaging” part at the end of the survey. Exec Summary: If you are in Tier 2, a good campaign will really help. If you are in Tier 1, pray that your district doesn’t care about national issues.
http://www.kitv.com/news/23913…
Where are the pro-life Democrats on the internet? A good portion of the party agrees with us on abortion and yet they are nowhere to be found in the blogosphere. I think the absence skews a lot of the left’s thinking about politics.
I’m surprised that there hasn’t been more of a push to get Meeks to drop out of the race.
Openly-gay (!) Republican state Sen. Paul Koering must’ve been out of his frickin’ mind (or incredibly lonely or naive or both) when he invited gay porn “actor” Brandon Wilde out for a romantic dinner in Brainerd, Minnesota.
Fair enough. But appearances aren’t the (only) reason politicians shouldn’t date porn stars… probably the main one is that porn stars generally say and do whatever the hell they want and don’t give a damn what people think. Wilde’s take on the date:
Hmmm, a homely 45-year-old, newishly-out politician and a nubile 20-year-old gay porn star…naw, Brandon, I’m sure he wasn’t trying to get into your pants at all. Another reason not to date them is that porn stars also might reveal your nefarious plans to gay up the state:
Poor Koering, he’s still a newbie to gay dating by many standards and being a politician makes it tough…and being a Republican makes it even tougher. But one date and suddenly your re-election prospects are seriously complicated. Well, I’m sure Koering learned his lesson…
D’oh.
The safe-for-work Towleroad link is below:
http://www.towleroad.com/2010/…
Obama approval in Ras-o-World = 42-57
Obama approval on Earth (Gallup) = 49-43
Difference = 21%
I’ve only been following politics closely for about 5 years. Can someone tell me if there has ever been a time when polling was this fucked up?
God that would be great…so much dirt…a free SCOTUS seat…and who knows? Maybe he’d run as a Libertarian and absolutely screw the GOP nominee.
http://www.tampabay.com/opinio…
http://www.ccadvertising.com/s…
Ridiculously large sample – over 4,000 people interviewed – with a ludicrous voter model of 44R/34D/22I and 56M/44F. A lot of the internals seem contradictory, too – 44% are “supporters” of the Tea Party movement, and yet only 30% of the same are pro-life.
Interesting backdrop on the question of Richard Hanna and the Independence Party line in NY-24 — currently there is an Oneida County DA investigation into the Oneida County Independence Party finances – and a check that Hanna’s campaign wrote to the committee 2 weeks before the 2008 election.
http://www.uticaod.com/latestn…
While it doesn’t sound like a huge scandal, it does tie what sounds like some suspect local party funding issues into Hanna’s campaign – never a good thing for a candidate.
This one hitting Angle for absconding to DC.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
This article pisses me off so much. I can’t believe SC Republicans are willing to support a Democrat to keep an Indian-American female reformist from becoming Gov.
Question: If Jake Knots and/or Andre Bauer endorsed Sheheen, would that hurt you impression of him?
Can anyone else not see the poll for where PPP will poll this weekend?
Fresh off his making the Red-to-Blue list, Tommy Sowers has come under attack from incumbent JoAnn Emerson… but since it’s hard to attack a former Special Forces Major with two Bronze Stars for anything real or consequential…. she went right for the mud. And not just any mud: gay-baiting. She had a political operative associate of her former husband basically imply in a letter to the editor that Sowers is gay. Like, really imply…
That earned her a rather sharp rebuke from the publisher of the district’s most influential newspaper:
http://www.semissourian.com/st…
Also, it’s a phenomenally dumb attack. As much as I wish he played for my team, Tommy Sowers is not gay. Like, not even a little. He’s an Army Green Beret with a truck and a hunting dog and a gun rack and occasionally wears ill-fitting clothes and likes some godawful country music. Anyone who meets him is going to figure this out in 5 seconds.
Oh–and for the record, guess where he met his appropriately-hot wife? That would be Iraq, where he was deployed…twice. In conclusion, eat a bag of dicks, Rep. Emerson.
Goodbye Gooch
Rasmussen finds Branstad getting a bounce and his largest ever lead against Culver (57-31), according to a one-day poll on June 14. The last Rasmussen poll in late April had Branstad ahead of Culver 53-38.
Meanwhile, Planned Parenthood’s PAC in Iowa endorsed Culver today.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
The NYT has decided to rehash on Blumenthal again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06…
Scott Murphy got the Independence party line in NY-20 for the 2010 GE. Should help a little, though I”m of the thinking he was okay anyways. Every little bit helps