Current Illinois Projections

Here is my best guess at where the races in Illinois stand. Let me know what you think.

Senate-

Candidates: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

A few weeks ago, this race was probably at Leans Republican, but after it was revealed Kirk “misremembered” parts of his military and teaching careers and exaggerated some of his claims, Giannoulias has pulled even in the most recent Rasmussen poll. It really is a shame Democrats nominated Giannoulias; if Madigan, Schakowsky, or Gutierrez would have ran they would be beating Kirk by at least high single digits. As with most close Illinois races, this seat will probably hinge on moderate suburban voters in DuPage, Lake, and Will counties, and Giannoulias will have to hope for high turnout in Cook County.

Governor

Candidates: Gov. Pat Quinn (D- Inc) vs Bill Brady (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Yes Governor Quinn is that unpopular. Bill Brady is a downstate, very conservative Republican who has no business being competitive in a state like Illinois. But Quinn, who took over for disgraced former Governor Blagojevich in 2008, has been forced to deal with a huge budget deficit, and his combination of proposed tax increases and cuts to social services has angered just about everyone in Illinois. Brady will rack up huge margins downstate and in the suburban collar counties, the question will be, does Quinn have enough votes in Cook County to drag him across the finish? Right now it doesn’t look good.

Secretary of State-

Candidates: Jesse White (D-Inc) vs Robert Enriquez (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

White is a popular incumbent who has been the SoS since 1998; Enriquez is largely unknown to the Illinois electorate.

Attorney General-

Candidates: Lisa Madigan (D-Inc) vs Steve Kim (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Madigan is the most popular politician in Illinois who will have no trouble against Kim. Had she ran for Governor or Senate, she would have been the overwhelming favorite.

Comptroller-

Candidates: David Miller (D) vs Judy Baar Topinka (R)

Current Rating- Lean Rep

The Comptroller’s position was vacated when Dan Hynes ran for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Quinn and lost by a few thousand votes. David Miller is a former state rep from the South Side of Chicago. He is a good candidate, but Baar-Topinka’s superior name recognition from her ’06 run for Governor currently makes her a slight favorite.

State Treasurer-

Candidates: Robin Kelly (D) vs Dan Rutherford (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

This is a hard race to handicap. Kelly faced a tough primary against Justin Oberman and won, but her connection to the unpopular Giannoulias (she served as his chief of staff) was used against her in the primary. Rutherford is a former state senator who has raised over 1 million dollars, and should provide and tough challenge to Kelly.

House Seats

District 1

Candidate: Bobby Rush (D- Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Rush is safe in this heavily African-American district.

District 2

Candidates: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D- Inc) vs Isaac Hayes (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Despite some ethical challenges surrounding Jackson and his connection to Blagojevich and the selling of Obama’s old senate seat, Jackson is safe.

District 3

Candidates: Dan Lipinski (D-Inc) vs Michael Bendas (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Oh how I would love a primary challenge to the Conservadem Lipinski. It was widely suspected Lipinski’s father gave up his seat to the diabetic Lipinski so that he could receive health insurance afforded to members of Congress. Lipinski then voted “no” earlier this year on the second round of health care reform. He is safe in this Southwest Chicago district, though.

District 4

Candidate: Luis Gutierrez (D-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Gutierrez is one of my favorite members of Congress. He is a true fighter for immigration reform and will likely be in the House for many years to come. I would love to see him as a senator one day.

District 5

Candidates: Mike Quigley (D-Inc) vs David Ratowitz (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Quigley took over for Rahm Emanuel when he left to become Obama’s Chief of Staff. Quigley is safe in this heavy Dem district.

District 6

Candidates: Ben Lowe (D) vs Peter Roskam (R-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Rep

Roskam barely won this seat in a special election in 2006 over Tammy Duckworth, who now serves in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrats thought they had a top-level challenger last year in Jill Morganthaler, but she lost to Roskam by 16 percent. This is a district with an Even Cook PVI, but Lowe has no chance this year.

District 7 (My District!)

Candidates: Danny Davis (D-Inc) vs Mark Weiman (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Davis is safe in this D+35 district.

District 8

Candidates: Melissa Bean (D-Inc) vs Joe Walsh (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Republicans in Illinois had this seat listed as a potential takeover, that is, until they nominated a candidate. Walsh’s campaign imploded in early May as his former campaign manager and other high-level staffers resigned the campaign and sent out press releases questioning Walsh’s finances and his ethics. Bean is a prolific fundraiser and skilled politician who will win reelection.

District 9

Candidates: Jan Schakowsky (D-Inc) vs Joel Pollak (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

Schakowsky is safe in this district that gave Barack Obama 72 percent of the vote in 2008.

District 10

Candidates: Dan Seals (D) vs Bob Dold (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up\ Tilt Dem

This district is being vacated as Mark Kirk runs for Senate. Seals ran in ’06 and ’08 but Kirk won both times by around 6 percent. Republicans did the Democrats a big favor here by nominating the more conservative Dold over the more moderate state rep Elizabeth Coulson. Coulson had some high profile endorsements from former Gov. Jim Edgar, most of Illinois’ Republican Congressional delegation, and Judy Baar Topinka, and her defeat in the February primary really helped Seals. Despite the leanings of this cycle, Seal’s high name recognition tilts this race in the Dems favor.

District 11

Candidates: Debbie Halverson (D-Inc) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)

Current Rating: Lean Dem

Republicans nominated a solid candidate in Kinzinger, an Iraq war veteran. However, Halverson has a serious cash advantage (she had 1.3 million in the bank in March) and she should be able to win in what will still be a tough fight.

District 12

Candidates: Jerry Costello (D-Inc) vs Teri Davis Newman (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

This is only a D+3 district, but Costello shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto the seat he has held since 1988.

District 13

Candidates: Scott Harper (D) vs Judy Biggert (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district voted for Obama by 8 points, but Biggert will most likely win big against ’08 nominee Harper. This district is trending towards the Democrats, but this cycle will be too difficult for Harper to make a serious run at winning.

District 14

Candidates: Bill Foster (D-Inc) vs Randy Hultgren (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up

Bill Foster has held this seat since March of 2008, when he defeated businessman Jim Oberweis in a special election, and then again in the general. This is an R+1 district, and Hultgren was a surprise nominee defeating former Speaker of the House Dennis Haster’s son, Ethan, in the February primary. An internal poll from Hultgren in May showed him beating foster 45-44 percent, but I would guess Foster is probably up by a few points right now.

District 15

Candidates: David Gill (D) vs Tim Johnson (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Johnson will have no problems in this district that voted for McCain by two points in ’08.

District 16

Candidates: George Gaulrapp (D) vs Donald Manzullo (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district is trending Democratic, but Manzullo is entrenched and will easily win reelection.

District 17

Candidates: Phil Hare (D-Inc) vs Bobby Schilling (R)

Current Rating: Likely Dem

Hare has represented this D+3 district since 2006. No polling has been conducted here, but I’m fairly certain Hare will have minimal problems in November.

District 18

Candidates: D.K. Hirner (D) vs Aaron Schock (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Schock is fairly popular in this district, and he will prevail over the little-known Hirner.

District 19

Candidates: Tim Bagwell (D) vs John Shimkus (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This is the most Republican district in Illinois, and Shimkus will easily be reelected in Novemeber.