Author: knickelbein5

In my previous Indiana diary, I attempted to create an 8-1 map in Indiana. It had the potential to be a dummymander, trying to take out both Peter Visclosky and Joe Donnelly. You can view that map here:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

For this Indiana map, I tried to be much more reasonable, creating a heavy Democratic district that stretches from Gary to South Bend taking in Michigan City while taking out Donnelly in the process. The rest of the districts stay close to their current PVI, and should remain in the hands of the party that currently holds that district.

1st District: Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)

Racial breakdown: 59 W    22 B    14 H    2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

This district is the Democratic vote sink in Northern Indiana. It takes in the heavy African-American areas in Lake County, swings over to pick up Michigan City, and finishes in South Bend. Donnelly could mount a primary challenge against Visclosky, but Visclosky has the more liberal record, and I would favor Visclosky to win that race.

2nd District: Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    3 B    9 H     1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

I see no reason Republicans shouldn’t take over this district easily. All the Democratic areas are removed from the district, and Republican leaning Elkhart County is added to the district.

3rd District: Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    6 B    5 H     2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

Not much to see here, Stutzman keeps his Ft. Wayne based.

4th District: Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)

Racial breakdown: 88 W    4 B    5 H    3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The 4th is cleaned up a little bit, but should remain safely in the Republican column. The GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs located in this district overwhelm Democratic votes in West Lafayette and Kokomo.

5th District: Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W   6 B   4 H   3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The district is centered on the heavy Republican suburbs of Indianapolis. No problem for Burton.

6th District: Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W   2 B    2 H   2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

This district shifts south to take in heavy Republican Morgan and Johnson counties and also eats up liberal precincts in Bloomington. Will stay in the GOP column.

7th District: Current Rep: Andre Carson (D)

Racial breakdown: 55 W   31 B    11 H  2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

NO CHANGE! (A Twilight Zone reference for those of you under 30). Carson’s Indianapolis centered district is almost identical to the current district.

8th District: Current Rep: Larry Buschon (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W    4 B    3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Lean R is Ellsworth runs, Safe R if not.

This district stays very similar to the current district as well. Ellsworth is probably the only Democrat who could win here, but it would have to be an exceptional year for him to pull it off.

9th District: Current Rep: Todd Young (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 W   2 B   3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

By taking Bloomington out of this district, Young is now safe for as long as he wants to be in Congress. This is one of the most rural districts in Indiana.

With Republicans holding the trifecta in Indiana, I decided to try to eliminate 2 of the current Democratic held house seats. Because the 7th district is represented by a minority and is the closest district to minority-majority in Indiana, I left that district intact.

1st District-Blue-Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)

Racial Breakdown: 75 white 13 black 11 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: McCain: 48 Obama: 51

Old District: McCain: 37 Obama: 62

This new district loses about half of Lake County and picks up several heavily Republican counties in the central part of the state. This district becomes 11 points more Republican, but yes, was still won by Obama. However, I would argue that aside from Illinois, Indiana was the state in which Obama most overperformed, and I would say this district would be won a GOP candidate in most years. New PVI around R+2.

Lake County:

2nd District-Green-Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)

Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 5 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 50 O: 49

Old District: M: 45 O: 54

Joe Donnelly is a goner. By removing South Bend and St. Joseph County from his district and picking up some GOP heavy counties in the central part of the state, this district moves 5 points towards the GOP. New PVI around R+5.

3rd District-Purple-Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)

Racial Breakdown: 83 white 9 black 6 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 51 O: 48

Old District: M: 56 O: 43

Stutzman can’t be thrilled he has to take up part of St. Joseph county, but his Ft. Wayne based district is still solidly Republican. New PVI around R+6.

4th District-Red- Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)

Racial Breakdown: 85 white 8 black 5 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 52 O: 47

Old District: M: 56 O: 43

The new 4th splits Lake County then moves south all the way towards the GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs. It takes in Dem leaning Tippecanoe county and the college town of West Laffayette, but almost all other territory is heavy Republican. New PVI around R+8.

5th District-Yellow- Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)

Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 3 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 53 O: 46

Old District: M: 59 O: 40

Dan Burton’s district stays largely the same, except for picking up Dem leaning Madison County. Burton also picks up some swing areas of Marion County, but they are not enough to offset the GOP lean of the rest of this suburban district. New PVI around R+11.

6th District-Turquoise- Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)

Racial Breakdown: 88 white 5 black 6 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 54 O: 45

Old District: M: 53 O: 46

It may be confusing as to how this district gets more Republican despite picking up some Dem friendly areas of South Bend, however it loses Madison and Delaware counties while stretching down the eastern part of the state to pick up more GOP counties. Not the most compact district, but Pence (or someone else) is safe here. New PVI around R+13.

7th District-Gray- Current Rep: André Carson (D)

Racial Breakdown: 59 white 31 black 8 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 28 O: 71

Old District: M: 28 O: 71

This district stays almost exactly the same. Centered on Marion County it is the most urban and Dem friendly in the state. Carson is safe. New PVI around D+15.

Indianapolis:

8th District-Light Purple-Current Rep: Larry Bucshon (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 white 4 black 2 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 51 O: 47

Old District: M: 51 O: 47

The 8th is very similar to the old 8th. Swingy Evansville and Terry Haute are offset by the GOP leaning counties in between. Bucshon should have no trouble with this district unless Brad Ellsworth runs, in which case Bucshon would still probably be the slight favorite. New PVI around R+8.

9th District-Light Blue- Current Rep: Todd Young (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 white 2 black 2 Hispanic 2 Asian

Old District: M: 50 O: 49

New District: M: 50 O: 49

The 9th stays almost the same as well. Liberal Bloomington is offset by the rest of the district. Young should be safe here, unless a Dem wave and the perfect Dem candidate align. New PVI around R+6.

So there you have it. Let me know what you think. Comments?

Here is my best guess at where the races in Illinois stand. Let me know what you think.

Senate-

Candidates: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

A few weeks ago, this race was probably at Leans Republican, but after it was revealed Kirk “misremembered” parts of his military and teaching careers and exaggerated some of his claims, Giannoulias has pulled even in the most recent Rasmussen poll. It really is a shame Democrats nominated Giannoulias; if Madigan, Schakowsky, or Gutierrez would have ran they would be beating Kirk by at least high single digits. As with most close Illinois races, this seat will probably hinge on moderate suburban voters in DuPage, Lake, and Will counties, and Giannoulias will have to hope for high turnout in Cook County.

Governor

Candidates: Gov. Pat Quinn (D- Inc) vs Bill Brady (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Yes Governor Quinn is that unpopular. Bill Brady is a downstate, very conservative Republican who has no business being competitive in a state like Illinois. But Quinn, who took over for disgraced former Governor Blagojevich in 2008, has been forced to deal with a huge budget deficit, and his combination of proposed tax increases and cuts to social services has angered just about everyone in Illinois. Brady will rack up huge margins downstate and in the suburban collar counties, the question will be, does Quinn have enough votes in Cook County to drag him across the finish? Right now it doesn’t look good.

Secretary of State-

Candidates: Jesse White (D-Inc) vs Robert Enriquez (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

White is a popular incumbent who has been the SoS since 1998; Enriquez is largely unknown to the Illinois electorate.

Attorney General-

Candidates: Lisa Madigan (D-Inc) vs Steve Kim (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Madigan is the most popular politician in Illinois who will have no trouble against Kim. Had she ran for Governor or Senate, she would have been the overwhelming favorite.

Comptroller-

Candidates: David Miller (D) vs Judy Baar Topinka (R)

Current Rating- Lean Rep

The Comptroller’s position was vacated when Dan Hynes ran for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Quinn and lost by a few thousand votes. David Miller is a former state rep from the South Side of Chicago. He is a good candidate, but Baar-Topinka’s superior name recognition from her ’06 run for Governor currently makes her a slight favorite.

State Treasurer-

Candidates: Robin Kelly (D) vs Dan Rutherford (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

This is a hard race to handicap. Kelly faced a tough primary against Justin Oberman and won, but her connection to the unpopular Giannoulias (she served as his chief of staff) was used against her in the primary. Rutherford is a former state senator who has raised over 1 million dollars, and should provide and tough challenge to Kelly.

House Seats

District 1

Candidate: Bobby Rush (D- Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Rush is safe in this heavily African-American district.

District 2

Candidates: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D- Inc) vs Isaac Hayes (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Despite some ethical challenges surrounding Jackson and his connection to Blagojevich and the selling of Obama’s old senate seat, Jackson is safe.

District 3

Candidates: Dan Lipinski (D-Inc) vs Michael Bendas (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Oh how I would love a primary challenge to the Conservadem Lipinski. It was widely suspected Lipinski’s father gave up his seat to the diabetic Lipinski so that he could receive health insurance afforded to members of Congress. Lipinski then voted “no” earlier this year on the second round of health care reform. He is safe in this Southwest Chicago district, though.

District 4

Candidate: Luis Gutierrez (D-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Gutierrez is one of my favorite members of Congress. He is a true fighter for immigration reform and will likely be in the House for many years to come. I would love to see him as a senator one day.

District 5

Candidates: Mike Quigley (D-Inc) vs David Ratowitz (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Quigley took over for Rahm Emanuel when he left to become Obama’s Chief of Staff. Quigley is safe in this heavy Dem district.

District 6

Candidates: Ben Lowe (D) vs Peter Roskam (R-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Rep

Roskam barely won this seat in a special election in 2006 over Tammy Duckworth, who now serves in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrats thought they had a top-level challenger last year in Jill Morganthaler, but she lost to Roskam by 16 percent. This is a district with an Even Cook PVI, but Lowe has no chance this year.

District 7 (My District!)

Candidates: Danny Davis (D-Inc) vs Mark Weiman (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Davis is safe in this D+35 district.

District 8

Candidates: Melissa Bean (D-Inc) vs Joe Walsh (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Republicans in Illinois had this seat listed as a potential takeover, that is, until they nominated a candidate. Walsh’s campaign imploded in early May as his former campaign manager and other high-level staffers resigned the campaign and sent out press releases questioning Walsh’s finances and his ethics. Bean is a prolific fundraiser and skilled politician who will win reelection.

District 9

Candidates: Jan Schakowsky (D-Inc) vs Joel Pollak (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

Schakowsky is safe in this district that gave Barack Obama 72 percent of the vote in 2008.

District 10

Candidates: Dan Seals (D) vs Bob Dold (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up\ Tilt Dem

This district is being vacated as Mark Kirk runs for Senate. Seals ran in ’06 and ’08 but Kirk won both times by around 6 percent. Republicans did the Democrats a big favor here by nominating the more conservative Dold over the more moderate state rep Elizabeth Coulson. Coulson had some high profile endorsements from former Gov. Jim Edgar, most of Illinois’ Republican Congressional delegation, and Judy Baar Topinka, and her defeat in the February primary really helped Seals. Despite the leanings of this cycle, Seal’s high name recognition tilts this race in the Dems favor.

District 11

Candidates: Debbie Halverson (D-Inc) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)

Current Rating: Lean Dem

Republicans nominated a solid candidate in Kinzinger, an Iraq war veteran. However, Halverson has a serious cash advantage (she had 1.3 million in the bank in March) and she should be able to win in what will still be a tough fight.

District 12

Candidates: Jerry Costello (D-Inc) vs Teri Davis Newman (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

This is only a D+3 district, but Costello shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto the seat he has held since 1988.

District 13

Candidates: Scott Harper (D) vs Judy Biggert (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district voted for Obama by 8 points, but Biggert will most likely win big against ’08 nominee Harper. This district is trending towards the Democrats, but this cycle will be too difficult for Harper to make a serious run at winning.

District 14

Candidates: Bill Foster (D-Inc) vs Randy Hultgren (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up

Bill Foster has held this seat since March of 2008, when he defeated businessman Jim Oberweis in a special election, and then again in the general. This is an R+1 district, and Hultgren was a surprise nominee defeating former Speaker of the House Dennis Haster’s son, Ethan, in the February primary. An internal poll from Hultgren in May showed him beating foster 45-44 percent, but I would guess Foster is probably up by a few points right now.

District 15

Candidates: David Gill (D) vs Tim Johnson (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Johnson will have no problems in this district that voted for McCain by two points in ’08.

District 16

Candidates: George Gaulrapp (D) vs Donald Manzullo (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district is trending Democratic, but Manzullo is entrenched and will easily win reelection.

District 17

Candidates: Phil Hare (D-Inc) vs Bobby Schilling (R)

Current Rating: Likely Dem

Hare has represented this D+3 district since 2006. No polling has been conducted here, but I’m fairly certain Hare will have minimal problems in November.

District 18

Candidates: D.K. Hirner (D) vs Aaron Schock (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Schock is fairly popular in this district, and he will prevail over the little-known Hirner.

District 19

Candidates: Tim Bagwell (D) vs John Shimkus (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This is the most Republican district in Illinois, and Shimkus will easily be reelected in Novemeber.