With Republicans holding the trifecta in Indiana, I decided to try to eliminate 2 of the current Democratic held house seats. Because the 7th district is represented by a minority and is the closest district to minority-majority in Indiana, I left that district intact.
1st District-Blue-Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)
Racial Breakdown: 75 white 13 black 11 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: McCain: 48 Obama: 51
Old District: McCain: 37 Obama: 62
This new district loses about half of Lake County and picks up several heavily Republican counties in the central part of the state. This district becomes 11 points more Republican, but yes, was still won by Obama. However, I would argue that aside from Illinois, Indiana was the state in which Obama most overperformed, and I would say this district would be won a GOP candidate in most years. New PVI around R+2.
Lake County: 
2nd District-Green-Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)
Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 5 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 50 O: 49
Old District: M: 45 O: 54
Joe Donnelly is a goner. By removing South Bend and St. Joseph County from his district and picking up some GOP heavy counties in the central part of the state, this district moves 5 points towards the GOP. New PVI around R+5.
3rd District-Purple-Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)
Racial Breakdown: 83 white 9 black 6 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 51 O: 48
Old District: M: 56 O: 43
Stutzman can’t be thrilled he has to take up part of St. Joseph county, but his Ft. Wayne based district is still solidly Republican. New PVI around R+6.
4th District-Red- Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)
Racial Breakdown: 85 white 8 black 5 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 52 O: 47
Old District: M: 56 O: 43
The new 4th splits Lake County then moves south all the way towards the GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs. It takes in Dem leaning Tippecanoe county and the college town of West Laffayette, but almost all other territory is heavy Republican. New PVI around R+8.
5th District-Yellow- Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)
Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 3 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 53 O: 46
Old District: M: 59 O: 40
Dan Burton’s district stays largely the same, except for picking up Dem leaning Madison County. Burton also picks up some swing areas of Marion County, but they are not enough to offset the GOP lean of the rest of this suburban district. New PVI around R+11.
6th District-Turquoise- Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)
Racial Breakdown: 88 white 5 black 6 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 54 O: 45
Old District: M: 53 O: 46
It may be confusing as to how this district gets more Republican despite picking up some Dem friendly areas of South Bend, however it loses Madison and Delaware counties while stretching down the eastern part of the state to pick up more GOP counties. Not the most compact district, but Pence (or someone else) is safe here. New PVI around R+13.
7th District-Gray- Current Rep: André Carson (D)
Racial Breakdown: 59 white 31 black 8 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 28 O: 71
Old District: M: 28 O: 71
This district stays almost exactly the same. Centered on Marion County it is the most urban and Dem friendly in the state. Carson is safe. New PVI around D+15.
Indianapolis:
8th District-Light Purple-Current Rep: Larry Bucshon (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 white 4 black 2 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 51 O: 47
Old District: M: 51 O: 47
The 8th is very similar to the old 8th. Swingy Evansville and Terry Haute are offset by the GOP leaning counties in between. Bucshon should have no trouble with this district unless Brad Ellsworth runs, in which case Bucshon would still probably be the slight favorite. New PVI around R+8.
9th District-Light Blue- Current Rep: Todd Young (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 white 2 black 2 Hispanic 2 Asian
Old District: M: 50 O: 49
New District: M: 50 O: 49
The 9th stays almost the same as well. Liberal Bloomington is offset by the rest of the district. Young should be safe here, unless a Dem wave and the perfect Dem candidate align. New PVI around R+6.
So there you have it. Let me know what you think. Comments?
Loading ...
I think we should password protect some of these maps so GOP legislators can’t see them! Nice work.
choice to go after Visclosky rather than Carson to create a 8-1 plan. You wind up with a messier map, but one that probably runs a lower risk of a dummymander based on PVIs alone.
The problem here is that the 2 incumbent Dems still have a shot at re-election (albeit not a great one). Joe Donnelly could probably win your 6th in a neutral-to-good year, and the same could hold for Visclosky in your 1st.
Dems could still win the two Region-based districts. Visclosky is probably a goner, but Donnelly (or someone like him) could win these districts in a neutral-to-good year.
I still think the best option for the GOP is to make one ultra-safe northern district, make Donnelly’s almost entirely rural and go for 7-2 (though I think the 8th will be won back by a good Dem in the near future regardless). But I guess if you’re going for broke, this is a better idea than cracking Indianapolis, which is a real fool’s errand.
from where it is now. In fact this map has all of Bloomington in the 9th district. What would stop someone like Baron Hill from at least coming close?
is preparing for a presidential run, and he’ll want to have reformer cred. He can’t really veto a gerrymander because it could be overrided with a simple majority, but I don’t think the R legislature will want to be in open disagreement with an R gov. My guess is the number will stay mostly the same, or maybe an elimination of Donnelly for super safe 1st, since Visclosky is the Dem power broker now.
He could beat Stutzman in a good year or another competent Democrat could win it. The 8th and 9th are still winnable for a good Democrat also.
Visclosky might in that district, but in the event a Republican did win it, it would be troublesome for them to hold. As for IN-4, I’m not sure that Rokita wouldn’t have problems from a Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill sort of candidate.
that had a long, serpentine majority-minority district that stretched from Indianapolis up to Gary, essentially packing most of the Democratic strongholds into a single district. It was one of the scariest things I’ve ever seen.
technology can do. Thanks for posting.
For several of the reasons that others mentioned I think the GOP will go 7R-2D. CD1 will be Lake-Porter with the balance being from laPorte. Then Laporte and the rest of CD1 goes to CD4.
CD2 will be St Joseph-Elkhardt & Koscuiko then head South.
CD8 & CD9 will be stronger R.
The 2001 map was a democratic hit job while 1991-1981 were GOP hit jobs. I think the GOP will settle for Donnelly’s scalp and move on.
A man’s got know his limitations or don’t try to stretch that single into a double if Wille Mays is in the outfield.
that the Leg will mess that much with CD1. Lake County has nothing culturally in common with the rest of the state, and a district like that would just end up pissing off everyone drawn into it.
I tried the same thing with a CD7 gerrymander that cracked Marion County and spilled Carson’s district into the surrounding ultra-red countryside….but it really wouldn’t work any better than your CD1 gerrymander. You can’t mess with Visclosky or Carson without a LOT of blowback from BOTH sides of the political spectrum, mostly (but not entirely) centering around racial tension and/or the urban/rural divide.
Donnelly, on the other hand, is fair game, and is pretty much hosed. The gerrymander doesn’t even have to be that blatant – just give Michigan City to the 1st and add more of Koscuiscko and Elkhart counties to compensate.
FYI, Donnelly has said he’d run in whichever district South Bend was in, so he’d probably actually go for the 6th. Though there’s no way putting the industrial corridor and downstate in the same district would fly, either.
And like someone else said, you can do a LOT more to shore up CD9 for the R’s. At least draw in Dearborn County, which was 70% McCain. I doubt that CD9 won’t encompass the entire Indiana portion of the Cincinnati media market by the time the ink dries on the new plan.
This is reminiscent of the 1982 GOP gerrymander in Indiana, which included packing three Democratic Congressmen into the same district.
It was such a dummymander that by 1990 Indiana had a 8D-2R delegation.
and did this. . .