In my previous Indiana diary, I attempted to create an 8-1 map in Indiana. It had the potential to be a dummymander, trying to take out both Peter Visclosky and Joe Donnelly. You can view that map here:
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
For this Indiana map, I tried to be much more reasonable, creating a heavy Democratic district that stretches from Gary to South Bend taking in Michigan City while taking out Donnelly in the process. The rest of the districts stay close to their current PVI, and should remain in the hands of the party that currently holds that district.
1st District: Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)
Racial breakdown: 59 W 22 B 14 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe D
This district is the Democratic vote sink in Northern Indiana. It takes in the heavy African-American areas in Lake County, swings over to pick up Michigan City, and finishes in South Bend. Donnelly could mount a primary challenge against Visclosky, but Visclosky has the more liberal record, and I would favor Visclosky to win that race.
2nd District: Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 3 B 9 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
I see no reason Republicans shouldn’t take over this district easily. All the Democratic areas are removed from the district, and Republican leaning Elkhart County is added to the district.
3rd District: Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 6 B 5 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
Not much to see here, Stutzman keeps his Ft. Wayne based.
4th District: Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)
Racial breakdown: 88 W 4 B 5 H 3 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
The 4th is cleaned up a little bit, but should remain safely in the Republican column. The GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs located in this district overwhelm Democratic votes in West Lafayette and Kokomo.
5th District: Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 6 B 4 H 3 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
The district is centered on the heavy Republican suburbs of Indianapolis. No problem for Burton.
6th District: Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)
Racial breakdown: 92 W 2 B 2 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
This district shifts south to take in heavy Republican Morgan and Johnson counties and also eats up liberal precincts in Bloomington. Will stay in the GOP column.
7th District: Current Rep: Andre Carson (D)
Racial breakdown: 55 W 31 B 11 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe D
NO CHANGE! (A Twilight Zone reference for those of you under 30). Carson’s Indianapolis centered district is almost identical to the current district.
8th District: Current Rep: Larry Buschon (R)
Racial breakdown: 92 W 4 B 3 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Lean R is Ellsworth runs, Safe R if not.
This district stays very similar to the current district as well. Ellsworth is probably the only Democrat who could win here, but it would have to be an exceptional year for him to pull it off.
9th District: Current Rep: Todd Young (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 W 2 B 3 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
By taking Bloomington out of this district, Young is now safe for as long as he wants to be in Congress. This is one of the most rural districts in Indiana.
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The problem is that Todd Young lives in Bloomington.
The question is whether Walorski lives in the new IN-02. I hope not.
Probably a bit of an overkill with IN1 & IN2. I would probably just do a St Joe, Elkhart and Kosciusko based seat with all of Lake, Porter and laPorte counties in either CD1 or CD4. I think CD2 outlined as I said plus assorted rural counties will be solid enough GOP. I understand the desire to pile on but for three or four percent I would rather see compact lines but that’s just me.
I like the southern arrangement quite well. Where Todd Young lives can be sorted out and splitting Bloomington is a good plan.
To be honest, I thought your first map was a little silly — but this one is probably exactly what we’re going to get (or at least what I would do if I were a Republican in charge of the process.
Things changed for the GOP in terms of redistircting when they took over the two southern Indiana seats — no longer needing to pick one or both of them off, now they’re on defense. You come up with the same soluntion that I’ve thought about — move Bloomington to a district with the cherry-red south Indy ‘burbs. In terms of creating a D vote sink in central Marion County (i.e. what we have now), and the surrounding suburbs, there are countless different formations one could come up with — and you propose as valid a one as any other.
And no Demcocrat is going to win the new IN-02 like this. Unfortunatly, that may mean saying hello to Congresswoman Wacky Jacky.
Doesn’t Visclosky have some corruption/integrity issues? If so, that could be a winnable primary for Donnelly.
I doubt it will happen though–I would guess that Donnelly probably just runs for Senate (if Lugar retires/seems likely to get primaried) or for Governor.
in the state, do you think any of them are bound to be even remotely competitive? Or are they likely to be made so friendly to the Republican candidate running that it doesn’t matter?
Call me a pie in the sky optimist, but I don’t like to write off any district. Some are obviously more worthy of our attention than others, but since Obama will probably contest the state and since it’s possible that we will have a competitive senate race, I don’t see why we can’t work to defeat someone that has a steady if very small base. Take Dan Burton, for instance. His challengers in 2006, a very good year for Democrats, and in 2010, a very bad year for Democrats, each received about 60,000 votes. In 2004, his challenger received almost 83,000 votes, while in 2008, his challenger received more than 123,000. Burton obviously won both times, but his vote totals only increased by about 20,000 from 2006 to 2010 and by about 6,000 from 2004 to 2008.
In 2008, according to Open Secrets, his challenger, Mary Etta Ruley, raised all of $16,195 but, once again, received about 40,000 more votes. Perhaps that was the Obama campaign, or perhaps that was the year, or some combination of both. But regardless, there’s clear some room to grow. Perhaps there’s not enough room, considering the Republican bent of the district–it’s R+17 right now, after all–but with a candidate that seemed to barely have a presence, there was some growth. I wonder what could happen if Indiana Democrats found someone who was a good fit for the district–a moderate if not conservative Democrat–who actually managed to raise a little money and ran a vigorous campaign AND then actually backed this candidate up by either spending on him or her specifically, by spending on this area in a presidential race, or by spending on the area in a senate–or all three. No, it wouldn’t be easy, and perhaps, once I looked into it more, it would be impossible, but there’s no reason why we shouldn’t look to take advantage of opportunity, as small as it may be, where we can.
The current version is essentially a Democratic gerrymander. Any district that keeps Evansville and Terre Haute is going to competitive for Democrats in a neutral-ish environment, if they put up a legitimate challenger.
could use redistricting as a bargaining chip to get a fairer map. I hope that’s on the table.