Aside from a weird little special primary for the Dems in sleepy OH-03, all eyes tonight are on the runoffs in Alabama. Let’s check in on the three big-ticket items tonight (there’s also a Dem runoff in the AG’s race, and a sadly Dale Peterson-free Republican runoff in the Ag Commissioner’s race).
• AL-Gov (R): The GOP gubernatorial runoff between ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne and state Rep. Robert Bentley is a convoluted one, as Byrne is simultaneously getting squeezed from the left and from the right, by Bentley in both cases. Bentley, who’s closely linked to Mike Huckabee’s camp, has the social conservative cred, and seems to have consolidated many former Tim James and Roy Moore voters, in opposition to the former Democrat and GOP-establishment-backed Byrne. Byrne, however, has been a tireless foe of the Alabama Education Association, who are much friendlier with Bentley. (As much as this is a duel between two guys trying to out-conservative each other, remember that these are the two comparatively reasonable guys in the field, with serious wackos Moore and James having fallen by the wayside). Both candidates have internal polls giving them the lead, but a sorta-public poll from Baselice gives Bentley the edge. The winner faces Democratic Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks.
• AL-02 (R): Gather your armies! Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby, the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, just barely fell short of an outright primary victory last month, taking 49% to teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber’s 29%. Barber, who has lagged in the fundraising race against Roby, has attempted to gin up interest in his campaign through a series of increasingly absurd “viral” videos. Either candidate will face a tough general election fight against frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright, who’s leaving little room for his would-be opponent on his right flank. (J)
• AL-07 (D): Wall Street securities lawyer Terri Sewell squares off against Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot. Sewell led after the first round, with 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%. (Earl Hilliard, Jr. took 22% but hasn’t endorsed anyone in the runoff.) Sewell has swamped Smoot on the fundraising front, taking in some $1 million to Smoot’s $150,000 (thanks at least in part to her befuddling EMILY’s List endorsement), and has dominated the airwaves. The campaign has turned negative during the long runoff period, with Smoot accusing Sewell of accepting lots of out-of-state “Republican” money and calling her “Artur Davis in a dress.” Meanwhile, Sewell has suggested that Smoot double-dipped on a car allowance from JeffCo. No polls of the runoff have been released, so we’ll see whether Sewell’s money can carry the day for her, or whether Smoot has effectively tied her opponent to Davis (who performed very badly here – his home district – in the AL-Gov primary against Ron Sparks). (D)
If you have any predictions, please share them in the comments!
Polls close at 7 pm Central time (8 pm Eastern, 5 pm Pacific).
nt
AL-Governor:
Bentley – 53%
Byrne – 47%
AL-Ag Comm.:
Grace – 55%
McMillan – 45%
AL-02:
Roby – 67%
Barber – 33%
AL-07:
Sewell – 51%
Smoot – 49%
AL-GOV
Bentley: 58
Back-walking Brad Byrne: 42
AL-02
Roby: 75
Barber: 25
AL-07
Sewell: 55
Smoot: 45
And I have no idea how every NYC law firm (hers was Midtown, and the same as Sen. Gillibrand’s) now gets called “Wall Street”. And Sewell’s been in the district for a decade now, so at least a “former” would be nice. Unlike Smoot, she grew up in the district as well.
Left in Alabama has covered the race well.
AL-Gov:
Robert Bentley – 57%
Bradley Byrne – 43%
AL-02:
Martha Roby – 64%
Rick Barber – 36%
AL-07:
Terri Sewell – 56%
Sheila Smoot – 44%
led me to Google him, just curious to see what he’s been up to since his loss.
And I found that I had missed this from last month: he had endorsed McMillan. BUT more importantly he (and his ad-maker) had done another ad, an endorsement ad, in the exact same style as the first one:
Dale Peterson returns, and his ad-maker reflects
Alas, film sequels are seldom quite as good as the inspired originals.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say I have a hankering suspicion Barber will beat Martha Roby in the primary enroute to giving Bright an easy, double-digit victory in the General.