DrPhillips’ US House Predictions

I'm not big on making predictions outside of the occasional comment on a diary, but it is hard not to get in on the game when others are doing it. I've taken a different approach with my rankings, since so many other posters have pointed out why certain seats will flip, I won't get into individually critiquing the races. I'm also only analyzing the potential Democratic losses, as potential for Democratic gains is greatly limited this year. I wanted to do a swingometer, but I'm still trying working with flash to do it properly, so for now, I'm doing a primitive one. It was hard making sure I listed all the competitive races, so if I have missed anything, please tell me and I can add it. I also listed some races in the second and third tiers more randomly, since they are harder to predict on the swing.

I've edited the colors so readers can read it better, the pastels should work fine.

It's not conventional to use the swingometer method for Congressional races, because the uniform swing is hardly ever has a presence, but I have looked at other cycles of house races and come up with a meter that makes sense.

This is where we are at now, these are all the House races are in contention, they are a mixture of likely GOP, toss-up, lean Democratic and likely Democratic, most around here know the rankings. Here are the boards.

If the GOP were to achieve moderate swing, it would amount about 20 or so seats, like the 1978 midterm election. This would be the best case scenario for Democrats, but I see more of a swing than this.

 Now, the next chart shows a swing similar to the one achieved by Democrats in '06. The difference is, it would leave the GOP short of majority. This is the scenario that I think will actually happen in November.    

The next scenario is the one where the GOP takes the house, but only by getting right to 218. If they are going to win the House, it likely won't be by more than this. They've got to reach way into the third column to even get a narrow majority.  

The last one is the most disastrous that it could get, but I don't see the GOP pulling this one off, but it's  worth putting out there. If the GOP can manage a big swing of votes, this could happen. But it isn't 1994 and the GOP has a lot less prospects, but like I said, it's worth discussing.

Now, as all politics is local and some incumbents are liked by many, the swing in any of these scenarios can result in a different combination of seats switching hands, but I have ranked the seats in the order that I think they are likely to fall. It's all up to rather or not Democrats can localize these races to counteract Republicans nationalizing them. If turnout is good and Dem candidates can keep it local, the losses will be minimized. That's my swingometer, comment and point out any mistakes I might have made or your own analysis.