MD-Gov: Slim Lead for O’Malley

Public Policy Polling (7/10-12, Maryland voters):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 45

Bob Ehrlich (R): 42

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This poll is already a few days out of the oven, but we’re clearing out some older inventory from the SSP Bake Shop at bargain prices.

On balance, I’d say this poll is pretty good news for Ehrlich. The former Governor is enjoying stronger support from his own party than O’Malley is, losing only 6% of the Republican vote to O’Malley and taking 21% of Democrats. O’Malley only has a 60% favorable rating from his own party, which doesn’t bode particularly well for ginning up base excitement in the fall. Moreover, PPP’s likely voter universe supported Obama over McCain by 59-36, meaning the needle barely budged from 2008. If anything, this could possibly be a more optimistic snapshot of the 2010 electorate than will actually be the case. In O’Malley’s favor, at least Ehrlich isn’t universally beloved by any means — his favorables are running perfectly even with his unfavorables at 39-39.

On a brighter note, at least Barbara Mikulski is slamming the competition:

Barbara Mikulski (D-inc): 58

James Rutledge (R): 30

Undecided: 12

Barbara Mikulski (D-inc): 59

Eric Wargotz (R): 27

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.1%)

34 thoughts on “MD-Gov: Slim Lead for O’Malley”

  1. It’s in the “reasonable” ballpark.  Anything over 5% starts getting into the “that’s a helluva lot” ballpark.

    The Republicans got their best possible candidate here, which makes it competitive, but O’Malley will only lose if he screws it up somehow.

  3. Democrat – 47%

    GOP – 30%

    Independent – 23%

    O’Malley – 83/10/48 = 53%

    Elrilch – 17/90/52 = 47%

    Mikulski – 87/15/60 = 60%

    Wargotz – 13/85/40 = 40%

  5. Is Erlich wasn’t that unpopular when he was voted out – I believe he has a positive approval rating. He lost because of the Democratic wave that year. I don’t think Erlich is perceived as having done that much wrong either.  

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