So the mood has struck me to update my always very specific and always very speculative governor predictions. For those of you scoring at home, there is not much science to this. I used 2004 exit poll data to guess at the partisan composition of each state, and then allocated percentages to each candidate by party. Then I did some simple arithmetic and came up with the numbers that you see below. I used 2004 because it was the last year with crappy Dem turnout where exit polls were available for every state. I tried my best to estimate what percentage of the vote would go to minor third party candidates by looking at historical data. Any difference between the sum of the numbers listed below and 100 should be attributed to minor third party candidates.
Overall, I have a whopping 17 seats changing hands. But it is a tempest in a teapot, with only one net seat going to the Republicans. The eight Dem pickups are CA, CT, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, and VT. The nine GOP pickups are IA, IL, KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, WI, and WY.
AK – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 37 – Berkowitz is the best AK Dems have, but Parnell is popular.
AL – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Same story – strong Dem recruit may be wasted on tough year.
AR – Beebe (D) 63, Keet (R) 35 – Beebe has weathered the storm better than any Dem governor.
AZ – Brewer (R) 53, Goddard (D) 42 – Brewer suddenly the belle of the ball; she has clear momentum.
CA – Brown (D) 49, Whitman (R) 46 – Will be soul crushing if Whitman successfully buys this election.
CO – Hickenlooper (D) 52, McInnis (R) 43 – Hoping McInnis survives. Hick in good shape if he does.
CT – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Don’t have a lot of faith in Lamont, but it’s a very blue state.
FL – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 42, Chiles (I) 12 – Rick Scott should be behind bars.
GA – Barnes (D) 50, Handel (R) 46 – Repubs may kneecap themselves again by nominating an idiot.
HI – Abercrombie (D) 55, Aiona (R) 43 – This should be a sure Dem pickup, knock on wood.
IA – Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 43 – Too much bad polling out there for it to be a fluke.
ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred running strong at the top of the ticket will help Minnick.
IL – Brady (R) 47.2, Quinn (R) 46.8 – Quinn extremely unpopular, but Brady not an ideal candidate.
KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 37 – Competes with Wyoming for easiest GOP pickup.
MA – Patrick (D) 46, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Polls are encouraging here.
MD – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 47 – Maryland is even more Democratic than it used to be.
ME – Mitchell (D) 46, LePage (R) 43, Cutler (I) 7 – Impressive primary win for LePage. Will be tough.
MI – Hoekstra (R) 52, Bernero (D) 47 – Granholm administration a tough act to follow.
MN – Dayton (D) 47, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 12 – DUI controversy ugly for Emmer.
NE – Heineman (R) unopposed – Heineman is the only unopposed governor. Go NE Dems!
NH – Lynch (D) 55, Stephens (R) 43 – Tougher cycle for Lynch this time, but he will survive.
NM – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Richardson administration weighs down Denish. Will be tight.
NV – Sandoval (R) 55, Reid (D) 40 – Why couldn’t we find ANYONE else for this one?
NY – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 31 – Biggest ass kicking of the cycle for governors.
OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Strickland narrowly holds on thanks to attackable opponent.
OK – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Another great recruit may be wasted on a tough year.
OR – Kitzhaber (D) 51, Dudley (R) 44 – Dudley getting bad press about ducking debates.
PA – Corbett (R) 51, Onorato (D) 46 – Unpopular Rendell administration drags down Onorato.
RI – Caprio (D) 41, Chafee (I) 37, Robitaille (R) 20 – Race is polling close, but Caprio has room to grow.
SC – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 46 – Grassroots energy behind Haley undeniable, but she could fuck it up in a variety of ways.
SD – Daugaard (R) 58, Heidepreim (D) 42 – Daugaard wins battle of great Dutch names.
TN – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 42 – Some polling out on this now, and it’s not pretty.
TX – Perry (R) 47.4, White (D) 46.8 – White could very well win this, but it will be unbelievably tough.
UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – It’s still Utah.
VT – Markowitz (D) 49.1, Dubie (R) 48.9 – This is optimistic, but Dem candidates have room to grow.
WI – Walker (R) 50, Barrett (D) 48 – Unpopular Doyle administration a drag on Barrett.
WY – Simpson (R) 62, Petersen (D) 35 – Competes with Kansas for easiest GOP pickup.
My present count (i usually don’t write diaries until 1 month before election) is somewhere about +6 Republican, Though there are very slight signs of improvement for Democrats in some states recently (CT,FL, GA for example), so it may be somewhat better. But if it really will be only +1 Republican – all Democratic party must go to church to thank God Almighty for miracle))))
Vermont, which won’t seem to elect any Democrat anymore, and seems to be liking even Dubie, who is a quite a bit more conservative than they normally pick them, even if it is a quiet, bland kind of maple syrupy conservatism.
Two, you should also take off Rhode Island. Lincoln Chafee will win this easily; he might even be running to the left of the Democratic candidate, Caprio. That is, unless you are counting a Chafee win as a Democratic pick-up.
Three, Brownback will not win nearly that easily. The man is simply too hated among Kansas’s moderates. He’ll win, but not by more than a 58-42 margin.
Four, with Georgia, I agree Handel would be a great candidate for Barnes to face, but for different reasons than you think. I think she wouldn’t get the support of conservatives and teabaggers, what’s more social conservatives would likely back Barnes. However, I think she will not be the candidate, (and I do breath a sigh of relief because she could possibly make up for her weakness in the rural southern counties by doing well in Fulton and the Atlanta metro area). Rather I think either Nathan Deal or John Oxendine will be the GOP candidate in the runoff, and they will probably win once there due to conservative backing, i.e. each will consolidate the support of the other. I’m leaning towards hoping Deal ends up being the candidate; he’s slightly less slimy than Oxendine, but less well known and not as well funded, plus he’s a long time creature of Washington, which will be a boon to Barnes, enabling him to make the race him against Washington, which will definitely help with rural south Georgia voters still willing to occasionally back Democrats. I share your optimism about this race, but Barnes has to win the primary without a run off.
Now, for Republicans, you should take Wisconsin off, I think Barrett will hold on to it eventually. Wisconsin is a politically active, Democratic leaning state, and there are lots of competitive races bringing Democratic voters to the polls, and Barrett is the perfect candidate.
I’d also take off Illinois; I don’t think Brady will be able to win once the real campaign starts, he doesn’t fit the profile thankfully.
I’d also take off Michigan; if you think it’s going to be a Hoekstra Bernero race, if that’s the case I don’t think Republicans will win it.
I can only say I hope you’re right about Florida, California and Minnesota.
Barnes is a powerful fundraiser. He outraised Handel by more than 2-1 last quarter.
Kudos to you for using a word I didn’t know, and using it correctly!
than in the previous two you did before. You actually took in the fact this time that some states have third party candidates running that may not yield a traditional head on head result, such as Maine. And I love the format also.
It’s too bad about Barrett. He’s trailing Walker by up to 4 points in recent polls, but ahead of Neumann by 2 or 3. If Neumann wins the primary your prediction might change, but I doubt it at this point. Walker’s pretty much sewn up the primary.
Then why is he losing to Brady?
Rick Scott should be behind bars. I could not agree more.
And my guess for the NE, 3:1 DDDDDD
Other than that, Barrett will win, Quinn will get lucky, Abercrombie should break 60 (even ras gave him 55 already).
Agree on everything else. Allred’s gonna help here and there is enough hope that Haley or Fallin will find scandals that will drag them down.
I may be overly optimistic, but so far, we’ve only lost sight of WY, KS, TN and IA.
I don’t know if Hoekstra is going to be able to get the nomination. He doesn’t have a lot of money and has done almost no advertising on tv. I’ve even seen an ad for Tom George (the guy polling around 1%) but none for Hoekstra. I think Cox seems like the most likely nominee right now. Bouchard, who just started advertising, could pull voters from Cox and allow Hoekstra to win. I don’t know…it really is wide open right now.
I hope Bernero can get the nomination but he’s still not advertising. He doesn’t have a lot of money so hopefully the unions can help him out.
This race is more open that people think. The Republican candidates aren’t very good and have big weaknesses. It’s winnable for the Democrats.