So the mood has struck me to update my always very specific and always very speculative governor predictions. For those of you scoring at home, there is not much science to this. I used 2004 exit poll data to guess at the partisan composition of each state, and then allocated percentages to each candidate by party. Then I did some simple arithmetic and came up with the numbers that you see below. I used 2004 because it was the last year with crappy Dem turnout where exit polls were available for every state. I tried my best to estimate what percentage of the vote would go to minor third party candidates by looking at historical data. Any difference between the sum of the numbers listed below and 100 should be attributed to minor third party candidates.
Overall, I have a whopping 17 seats changing hands. But it is a tempest in a teapot, with only one net seat going to the Republicans. The eight Dem pickups are CA, CT, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, and VT. The nine GOP pickups are IA, IL, KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, WI, and WY.
AK – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 37 – Berkowitz is the best AK Dems have, but Parnell is popular.
AL – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Same story – strong Dem recruit may be wasted on tough year.
AR – Beebe (D) 63, Keet (R) 35 – Beebe has weathered the storm better than any Dem governor.
AZ – Brewer (R) 53, Goddard (D) 42 – Brewer suddenly the belle of the ball; she has clear momentum.
CA – Brown (D) 49, Whitman (R) 46 – Will be soul crushing if Whitman successfully buys this election.
CO – Hickenlooper (D) 52, McInnis (R) 43 – Hoping McInnis survives. Hick in good shape if he does.
CT – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Don’t have a lot of faith in Lamont, but it’s a very blue state.
FL – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 42, Chiles (I) 12 – Rick Scott should be behind bars.
GA – Barnes (D) 50, Handel (R) 46 – Repubs may kneecap themselves again by nominating an idiot.
HI – Abercrombie (D) 55, Aiona (R) 43 – This should be a sure Dem pickup, knock on wood.
IA – Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 43 – Too much bad polling out there for it to be a fluke.
ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred running strong at the top of the ticket will help Minnick.
IL – Brady (R) 47.2, Quinn (R) 46.8 – Quinn extremely unpopular, but Brady not an ideal candidate.
KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 37 – Competes with Wyoming for easiest GOP pickup.
MA – Patrick (D) 46, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Polls are encouraging here.
MD – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 47 – Maryland is even more Democratic than it used to be.
ME – Mitchell (D) 46, LePage (R) 43, Cutler (I) 7 – Impressive primary win for LePage. Will be tough.
MI – Hoekstra (R) 52, Bernero (D) 47 – Granholm administration a tough act to follow.
MN – Dayton (D) 47, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 12 – DUI controversy ugly for Emmer.
NE – Heineman (R) unopposed – Heineman is the only unopposed governor. Go NE Dems!
NH – Lynch (D) 55, Stephens (R) 43 – Tougher cycle for Lynch this time, but he will survive.
NM – Denish (D) 51, Martinez (R) 49 – Richardson administration weighs down Denish. Will be tight.
NV – Sandoval (R) 55, Reid (D) 40 – Why couldn’t we find ANYONE else for this one?
NY – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 31 – Biggest ass kicking of the cycle for governors.
OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Strickland narrowly holds on thanks to attackable opponent.
OK – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Another great recruit may be wasted on a tough year.
OR – Kitzhaber (D) 51, Dudley (R) 44 – Dudley getting bad press about ducking debates.
PA – Corbett (R) 51, Onorato (D) 46 – Unpopular Rendell administration drags down Onorato.
RI – Caprio (D) 41, Chafee (I) 37, Robitaille (R) 20 – Race is polling close, but Caprio has room to grow.
SC – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 46 – Grassroots energy behind Haley undeniable, but she could fuck it up in a variety of ways.
SD – Daugaard (R) 58, Heidepreim (D) 42 – Daugaard wins battle of great Dutch names.
TN – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 42 – Some polling out on this now, and it’s not pretty.
TX – Perry (R) 47.4, White (D) 46.8 – White could very well win this, but it will be unbelievably tough.
UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – It’s still Utah.
VT – Markowitz (D) 49.1, Dubie (R) 48.9 – This is optimistic, but Dem candidates have room to grow.
WI – Walker (R) 50, Barrett (D) 48 – Unpopular Doyle administration a drag on Barrett.
WY – Simpson (R) 62, Petersen (D) 35 – Competes with Kansas for easiest GOP pickup.