Oklahoma Primary Preview

A relatively low-key week in primaries; with just Oklahoma on tap.

Predictions? Toss ’em in the comments; polls close at 7pm Central (8pm Eastern).

• OK-Gov (D): The race is on to replace term-limited Dem Brad Henry, with Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson running to hold this one for team Blue. Both are statewide elected officials (LG in Oklahoma is elected separately) and have their street cred, but the two recent polls of this race have given Edmondson a 49-33 and a 38-27 lead. As we mentioned in yesterday’s digest, Askins just scored a big endorsement from former OU football coach Barry Switzer, but Edmondson still retains the advantage here.
• OK-Gov (R): A congressperson from the 5th CD holding a sizeable lead over a lesser-known state official in the Republican primary? If this all seems a bit deja vu, it is. In 2006, then OK-05 Rep. Ernest Istook bested state Energy Secretary Bob Sullivan 55-31; now we see if Istook’s successor Mary Fallin can repeat the feat against Tulsa-area State Senator Randy Brogdon. Recent polls suggest she will, pegging her lead at 56-18 and 50-22, respectively. There are also two Some Dudes in the race, which will go to a runoff in a month if Fallin can’t claim 50%+1 tonight.
• OK-02 (D): Dan Boren is one of the most conservative Dems in the 111th Congress, which has drawn him a challenger in Jim Wilson, a state senator from the northeastern part of the state. Wilson is hitting Boren hard from his left flank, but it’s unlikely that’s catching much traction in this conservative, though ancestrally Democratic, district. Wilson’s own internal had him down 62-17. Boren isn’t resting on his polling laurels though and has been on the airwaves; the question isn’t whether he’ll win, just by how much.
• OK-02 (R): Boren’s conservative voting record doesn’t dissuade challengers; no fewer than six GOPers have stepped up to the plate. Three – Chester Falling, Charles Thompson and ’08 loser Raymond Wickson – haven’t needed to file FEC reports. Businessman Howard Houchen is the best funded of the three remaining (having a raised a whopping $70k…); rounding out the field are law student Dan Arnett ($9k raised) and rancher Daniel Edmonds ($23k). Given the sheer number of candidates here – none of whom are all that well known – a runoff is almost assured.
• OK-05 (R): The field’s crowded in the race to replace would-be Governor Mary Fallin as well. Two are familiar faces from the open seat race in 2006, doctor Johnny Roy (who scored 3% in 2006) and former State Rep. Kevin Calvey (10%). Other likely contenders include Christian camp director James Lankford, and a pair of State Reps, Mike Thompson of OKC and Shane Jett of more rural Pottawatomie County. A recent poll had Calvey at 28, Lankford at 20, Thompson 15, Jett at 6, and Roy at 2. That represents a surge for Lankford, but Thompson’s $262k CoH (and $900k+ raised this cycle) can’t be counted out. Two more round out the seven-man field, which will be narrowed to two before an almost-certain runoff.