California: How Demographic Changes Impacted Partisan Changes (Part 3)

We next stop by the coastal counties outside the major urban centers. In most of the northern half, the coastal regions outside the cities started out Republican and began trending Democratic in the mid-20th century with the migration of urban people and the establishment of UC Santa Cruz in Santa Cruz County. Lake and bellwether San Benito Counties are technically not coastal, but their political dynamics are very similar to the non-major-urban coastal counties, so that is why I am including them here instead of with the other inland counties. San Luis Obispo and Del Norte counties are much further away from urban settings and thus have not had the Democratic trend of the others. Some of these counties, especially Mendocino and Humboldt, Perot and Nader way overperformed, which artificially made the counties more Republican in 2000.

Santa Barbara is regarded as mirroring California politically and demographically (while San Benito only mirrors the state politically) and its trend has largely followed the state’s. Ventura County was a originally a swing county and trended Republican as it became more of a suburb of L.A., before beginning trending the opposite direction in the 90s along with the rest of suburban SoCal.

While these counties don’t make up a very big slice of the pie population-wise, only about 10% or so, and are also growing slower than average, their Democratic trend is still more than welcome.

Del Norte

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	2,759	14.1%	0.08%	R+3.7
1930	4,739	71.8%	0.08%	D+5.4
1940	4,745	0.1%	0.07%	R+5.8
1950	8,078	70.2%	0.08%	R+9.0
1960	17,771	120.0%	0.11%	D+3.0
1970	14,580	-18.0%	0.07%	D+1.5
1980	18,217	24.9%	0.08%	R+3.0
1990	23,460	28.8%	0.08%	D+1.9
2000	27,507	17.3%	0.08%	R+7.2
2008*	29,100	5.8%	0.08%	R+6.9

Humboldt

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	37,413	10.5%	1.09%	R+12.5
1930	43,233	15.6%	0.76%	R+7.6
1940	45,812	6.0%	0.66%	D+1.4
1950	69,241	51.1%	0.65%	R+3.5
1960	104,892	51.5%	0.67%	D+4.0
1970	99,692	-5.0%	0.50%	D+5.2
1980	108,525	8.9%	0.46%	D+1.2
1990	119,118	9.8%	0.40%	D+9.9
2000	126,518	6.2%	0.37%	D+1.1
2008*	129,000	2.0%	0.35%	D+10.9

Lake

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	5,402	-2.2%	0.16%	D+4.1
1930	7,166	32.7%	0.13%	R+1.2
1940	8,069	12.6%	0.12%	R+10.4
1950	11,481	42.3%	0.11%	R+12.8
1960	13,786	20.1%	0.09%	R+8.2
1970	19,548	41.8%	0.10%	D+0.1
1980	36,366	86.0%	0.15%	R+0.9
1990	50,631	39.2%	0.17%	D+6.4
2000	58,309	15.2%	0.17%	D+4.3
2008*	64,866	11.2%	0.18%	D+5.9

Mendocino

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	24,116	0.8%	0.70%	R+5.0
1930	23,505	-2.5%	0.41%	R+0.7
1940	27,864	18.5%	0.40%	D+1.6
1950	40,854	46.6%	0.39%	R+5.9
1960	51,059	25.0%	0.32%	D+0.5
1970	51,101	0.1%	0.26%	D+3.5
1980	66,738	30.6%	0.28%	D+1.4
1990	80,345	20.4%	0.27%	D+13.6
2000	86,265	7.4%	0.25%	D+6.5
2008*	86,221	-0.1%	0.24%	D+17.5

Monterey

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	27,980	15.9%	0.82%	R+4.5
1930	53,705	91.9%	0.95%	R+2.5
1940	73,032	36.0%	1.06%	D+0.0
1950	130,498	78.7%	1.23%	R+6.1
1960	198,351	52.0%	1.26%	R+4.2
1970	247,450	24.8%	1.24%	R+0.6
1980	290,444	17.4%	1.23%	R+5.2
1990	355,660	22.5%	1.20%	D+5.0
2000	401,762	13.0%	1.19%	D+7.4
2008*	408,238	1.6%	1.12%	D+14.1

San Benito

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	8,995	11.9%	0.26%	R+1.2
1930	11,311	25.7%	0.20%	D+2.4
1940	11,392	0.7%	0.16%	R+2.1
1950	14,370	26.1%	0.14%	R+9.7
1960	15,396	7.1%	0.10%	R+1.8
1970	18,226	18.4%	0.09%	D+0.2
1980	25,005	37.2%	0.11%	R+3.7
1990	36,697	46.8%	0.12%	D+1.0
2000	53,234	45.1%	0.16%	D+4.1
2008*	54,699	2.8%	0.15%	D+6.1

San Luis Obispo

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	21,893	12.9%	0.64%	R+2.2
1930	29,613	35.3%	0.52%	D+3.7
1940	33,246	12.3%	0.48%	R+0.6
1950	51,417	54.7%	0.49%	R+9.4
1960	81,044	57.6%	0.52%	R+2.7
1970	105,690	30.4%	0.53%	R+0.4
1980	155,435	47.1%	0.66%	R+6.9
1990	217,162	39.7%	0.73%	R+1.9
2000	246,681	13.6%	0.73%	R+7.4
2008*	265,297	7.5%	0.73%	R+1.7

Santa Barbara

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	41,097	48.2%	1.20%	R+3.4
1930	65,167	58.6%	1.15%	R+5.2
1940	70,555	8.3%	1.02%	R+0.2
1950	98,220	39.2%	0.93%	R+12.4
1960	168,962	72.0%	1.08%	R+7.1
1970	264,324	56.4%	1.32%	R+1.0
1980	298,694	13.0%	1.26%	R+5.7
1990	369,608	23.7%	1.24%	D+0.1
2000	399,347	8.0%	1.18%	R+0.9
2008*	405,396	1.5%	1.11%	D+6.6

Santa Cruz

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	26,269	0.5%	0.77%	R+4.6
1930	37,433	42.5%	0.66%	R+5.8
1940	45,057	20.4%	0.65%	R+8.1
1950	66,534	47.7%	0.63%	R+12.9
1960	84,219	26.6%	0.54%	R+8.0
1970	123,790	47.0%	0.62%	D+2.5
1980	188,141	52.0%	0.79%	D+2.5
1990	229,734	22.1%	0.77%	D+17.9
2000	255,602	11.3%	0.75%	D+16.0
2008*	253,137	-1.0%	0.69%	D+25.9

Ventura

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	28,724	56.6%	0.84%	R+13.1
1930	54,976	91.4%	0.97%	R+5.0
1940	69,685	26.8%	1.01%	D+1.9
1950	114,647	64.5%	1.08%	D+3.4
1960	199,138	73.7%	1.27%	D+3.9
1970	378,497	90.1%	1.90%	R+4.6
1980	529,174	39.8%	2.24%	R+8.8
1990	669,016	26.4%	2.25%	R+5.4
2000	753,197	12.6%	2.22%	R+2.6
2008*	797,740	5.9%	2.18%	D+1.0