We’re doomed, oh what a world! At least according to people who have never been wrong about the future like NRO. Those dudes sense that total doom awaits because Robin Carnahan’s vote total didn’t beat Roy Blunt’s in St. Louis County. (They had to be reminded that STL City is it’s own entity, but still, obviously they’re experts)
So here’s the map.
The overall totals were 64% of votes cast for the Republicans running for the Senate, and 35% cast for the Democrats. Which can be categorized as a lousy turnout on our side. After all, with zero competitive state primaries and 99 degree heat in KC (and apparently a lot of heat in STL too), don’t we know that we’re just supposed to automatically vote?
Also, if you believe the people who are either going to lean on Carnahan/Blunt totals, or turnout. Then obviously everybody voting in the Democratic primary was a Democrat and everybody voting in the Republican primary was a Republican. I’d imagine in their world, people were picking up Republican ballots, not because there were lots of competitive visible races in their primary, but because they’re all diehard Republicans now. (And goodness forbid, I doubt any Democrats voted in Republican primaries, because doing that would make them melt. Kind of like garlic to vampires.)
MO-7, MO-4, SD6 (Jeff City Area), SD28 (It’s shaped oddly), SD8, SD2 (could you blame a St. Charles Dem who’d vote against Cynthia Davis?). None of those had any influence on the turnout, i’m sure.
The last year has not been the model of how to do various political things, nationally or otherwise. But at the same time, beating an entrenched DC Republican is not supposed to be easy. So 64-35 is ridiculous. But you know that’s not how it breaks down in November.
I think people are in for a rude awakening if they think Carnahan, Conway and Hodes have actual shots.
Fischer and Marshall I think might have a shot, but the other 3 I think its fairly easy to say they do not.
But, with President Obama’s approval in the mid-30s here, it’s awfully difficult to fathom her winning now. Blunt’s not an amazing candidate and Carnahan’s not a weak one, but she’s running at the absolute worst time.
For now, I’m thinking…
Republican – 37%
Democrat – 36%
Independent – 27%
Blunt – 93/10/54 = 53%
Carnahan – 7/90/46 = 47%