SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

145 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Vitter 51% (R)

    Melancon 41% (D)

    Taylor 39% (R)

    Melancon 40% (D)

    53/41 approval for Vitter

    But Louisiana does not like him as a human being

    Tom Jensen:

    What makes that all the more interesting is that Louisiana voters do have a pretty dim view of Vitter as a human being. 44% think Vitter has been a poor model of Christian living to only 21% who think he’s been a good model and by a 32-22 margin they say Melancon has been a better exemplar of Christian values. But there’s a disconnect between how voters feel about the candidates personally and how they’re planning to vote. For instance Vitter’s getting 30% from people who think he’s been a poor model- party is trumping values.

    Obama’s approval is 35/61

    http://www.publicpolicypolling…

  3. The legality is clear: if McAdams voluntarily withdraws, he can be replaced until 48 days pre-primary.

  5. This is probably a bridge too far for them, since she has been fairly conservative and only broke ranks on one or two votes.

    A top two primary would have been interesting here.  We might have seen a Miller v. Murkowski general.

  7. There is precedent for the AIP giving their blessing to a rogue Republican. (Gov. Wally Hickel won a second term under their line — sadly secession did not ensue.) OTOH, isn’t the AIP pretty tea-flavored these days?

  8. This is pretty far down in the weeds, perhaps even for SSP, but this is one of those things where if I don’t get it off my chest, I will explode…so, apologies in advance if it’s too off-topic.

    Okay, so what happens went a West Point graduate and decorated officer (Dan Manning) gets kicked out of the Army because of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and decides to run for office against a far-right bigot (Brenda Landwehr) for a seat in the Kansas House of Representatives? The incumbent bigot in question stirs up homophobia among the locals (reportedly even dropping some f-bombs) and the openly-gay candidate gets a poorly-spelled death threat attached to the front door of his home.

    http://www.towleroad.com/2010/…

    He’s also getting a $20 donation from me today, and more when I get my next paycheck. Frankly, I think the sweetest revenge would be having Manning break Sean Tevis’ fundraising record and kick ole Brenda’s bigoted ass out da Lege. He could do it, too–Landwehr is a longtime incumbent, hasn’t been seriously challenged in awhile and is way, way too conservative for her moderate district that’s getting bluer, fast. Want to help? KS HR races are cheap–successful challengers rarely need more than $20k or so. Donate: http://www.manningforkansas.com/

    Disclosure: I’m not affiliated with the campaign, but I am a gay Kansan and I am sick of this crap. So go choke on some pink dollars, Brenda…. oh and btw, that’s a lovely lady mullet you’re rockin’.  

  9. Isn’t there a D State Senator that is good on the stump and can get the 40-45% needed in a 3 way race?

    If not, what about Levi Johnston?  If Murkowski running as a spoiler elected Levi, wouldn’t she have the last laugh on Sarah? The Wassila race isn’t until next year anyway (in case he loses).    

  10. Bad choice for a running mate by Rick Snyder.  His entire campaign is about how politicians are the problem.  Apparently he doesn’t feel that strongly about the things his campaign is based on.  I’m not sure it will matter.  I just find it humorous that he isn’t even governor and is already backing out on things he said while campaigning.

    I’ll be interested to see who Bernero picks.  None of the candidates mentioned in the media make me excited.      

  11. It’s becoming increasingly probable that Murkowski has lost the Republican nomination. Her only real option would be to convice the current Libertarian candidate on the ballot to drop out. AIP apparently isn’t an option, since they didn’t even bother to field a candidate in this race.

    Also, Joe Miller is actually going to campaign on the idea of getting Alaska off the federal teat, which has never been a winner for anyone campaigning for federal office in Alaska before.

    Here’s the story:

    http://community.adn.com/adn/n…

    Where all this is going I have no idea. Murkowski is clearly not happy. I can’t even tell you where I’m ranking this seat now – things will have to shake out.

  12. Hey there SSP, longtime lurker and first time poster here.

    CW seems to be that yesterdays primaries were good for us(democrats), with lucking out getting Rick Scott in Florida as well as Joe Miller beating Murkowski in Alaska. However, the thing that’s worrying to me is that Dem turnout in Florida(a state with something like 600k more registered democrats than republicans, as well as a competitive primary on the dem side) and Arizona seemed to be so low compared to the Republicans. So my question is how much is primary turnout   by party connected to the final vote on election day? It seems like it would be an interesting thing to analyze.

  14. Boxer up 49-44 with leaners so once again SurveyUSA screwed the pooch in California. But this leads me to ask why there are no leaners in the Oregon, and more importantly, Wisconsin polls? Or have I just missed them?

     

  17. WTF went wrong here? Just yesterday, people were praising how excellent of a campaign she ran. If she loses, the smart thing to do is wait until 2014 when the party has no obvious Sen candidate other than Parnell.  

  19. I am going to pledge $50.00 for Conway. Anyone want to make a pledge as well? Conway can win this thing but he is going to need more money. Even $5.00 helps. Come on, you know you wanna. Let’s prove that it is not just Paul weirdoes who know how to wrangle in the cash.

    http://www.conwayfightfund.com/

  20. Relatively small buys of 29, 377.12. Sounds small, buy may be more in such a market, especially for a 5 day period. The ads are paid for by the Louisiana Truth PAC, a group funded by Juan LaFonta supporters. The ads are probably very, very negative, if their website is any indication. I don’t like posting it here, because some of the things are probably not true, and, if not, really sick lies, but I know people are gonna ask for it: http://therealcedricrichmond.com/

  22. who I’m voting for. I agonized over the AG race because I like all the candidates, but I think I’m finally decided on Joe Fernandez. His fundraising is the best of all the candidates and I’m voting with an eye to padding the Dem bench in RI (not like it’s lacking, but still), so that’s important. Doesn’t hurt that he’s Filipino and would add some diversity, or that he’s from Providence.

    My other picks are Cicilline for RI-01, Mollis for SoS, Raimondo for treasurer (unopposed), Roberts for LG, and Taveras for mayor of Providence. I think I’ll walk over to city hall and vote tomorrow (voting early since I’m going to be out of the country for a while starting next week).

  25. Betty Sutton in particular is signaled out in this article; I’m inclined to believe it. Way back in February, Sutton was down by 5. Also mentioned are Jim Marshall of Georgia, Allen Boyd of Florida, and Leonard Boswell of Iowa.

    A Democratic pollster working on several of the key races said “the reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.” His data shows the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. “It’s spreading.”

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

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