The latest count:
| Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa Murkowski | 45,359 | 49.10% |
| Joe Miller | 47,027 | 50.90% |
Seven more precincts have been counted, leaving just two precincts (and a load of absentees) outstanding, and Murkowski has cut the deficit to 1,492 votes from around the 2,000 mark. That gives the Murkowski camp a bit of hope, however faint, that the absentees could be enough to tip this thing back to her.
If Miller ends up winning and Murkowski wants to explore her third-party options, well, it seems that it would have to be Libertarian or bust:
Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it’s too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.
There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.
And as for Democratic nominee (and Sitka mayor) Scott McAdams, he announced today on a conference call organized by the Alaska Democratic Party that he will not be stepping aside for another candidate.
UPDATE: 100% is now in, and Miller netted a couple hundred extra votes. Also, we can put the Tony Knowles rumors to bed:
Knowles, however, told POLITICO Wednesday that he’s not interested in running for Senate again.
“I do not want to run for the office of Senate again,” said Knowles, who lost to Murkowski by a slim margin in her first bid for a full term in 2004. She had been appointed to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-GOP Gov. Frank Murkowski, a move that generated a considerable amount of controversy at the time.
“All of the deadlines are passed. That was a decision that had to be made by the 1st of June,” Knowles said. “But am I interested in running? No.”
why anyone would want McAdams to step aside. Sitka is a pretty decently-sized city for the state; I’ve been to Alaska before and one of my best friends is from Alaska. It’s probably a lot more famous and prominent than Wasilla was before 2008.
I feel pretty good about this, actually. Begich, a mayor of an Alaskan city, beat someone with intimate and sentimental ties to Alaska, something that’s very important there. Begich beat someone with a whole lot of money. Stevens brought home, famously, a lot of dough which a lot of people in Alaska were the beneficiaries of. Hard to vote against that. Still, Begich won. Stevens also was way more in line with the political views of Alaskans than Begich.
Ok, I know the caveats: 2008 was a great year for Dems. Stevens was indicted. Begich raised a lot more money than McAdams. Anchorage is a huge compared to Sitka.
Still, McAdams has a real shot; at the very least the NRSC might have to spend some money. Miller’s gonna fundraise, don’t get me wrong. A teabagger, he also has Yale Law School connections, I would think. I just don’t think it’s a GOP slam dunk: far from it.
Last point: Miller won’t bring home the dough. If McAdams becomes the pork candidate, it significantly helps him. Won’t help him with the teabag crowd, but that’s a small minority–at least, in the general–and he wouldn’t win it anyway.
Some of the comments in the previous thread about McAdams and replacing him reminds of the smoke filled rooms and backroom deals, no one else stepped up he was the victor move on.
laugh when I read a comment like this:
Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/08/25/…
Was in an ad for Murkowski right before he died: http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
The campaign held the ad.
One is in HD #16 and will add about 450-500 votes, and one is in the semi-bush HD #6 and will add 40-50 more votes. I would guess that HD 6 is more moderate/liberal, and that HD 16 is more conservative.
I would guess that Miller gains 100-150 more votes before the absentees are counted.
After all the precincts have been counted, there are 16000 absentee ballots still left to be counted. How much of those 16000 does Murkowski have to win in order to turn the result back in her favor?
against a convicted felon. unless murkowski goes third party, splitting the right, i don’t see how any dem could win. Knowles wins only came due to a split in the republican party and the right. in fact, no dem (except maybe an AG or something i don’t feel like looking up) has won a majority of the vote since knowles was re-elected against 2 republicans.
Murkowski is not a libertarian, so would the Libertarian Party really want her to run on their line, even if their candidate volunteered to withdraw?
I was fairly excited at first, but while Miller may be a Tea Party candidate, he’s no Sharron Angle. He’s actually very well-credentialed: West Point, Yale Law, etc. He’s clearly intelligent and comes across as very well-spoken.
While I certainly would love if the Dems could unexpectedly poach another seat from Alaska, I really doubt they’ll be able to. It’s going to be hard to characterize Miller as a complete nutjob.
In some ways, the best comparison is to Ken Buck in Colorado. But that’s a better shot, because we have a well-funded incumbent, a disastrous situation for the GOP in the governor’s race (which may boost Dems), and a state that’s overall more favorable to Democrats. Plus, Buck has made a lot of gaffes.
the way incumbents should handle insurgent challenges is to vaporize them like McCain did to Hayworth before they could gain traction.
Also this was one huge fraking red flag the Murkowski campaign should of seen:
Miller added 407 votes, Murkowski added 231.
is the deal with the “ADL” designation on the Alaska SOS web-site. Looks like there is one primary including AI, Libertarian, Democratic candidates, some-f’-ing how. WTF?
Also, WTF?
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
Ballots will be accepted until then. This could be awhile
and buried Miller in negative ads. As of 8/4, she had $1,868,429 cash on hand and no debt vs Miller’s $84,204 cash on hand with $107,781 in debt. All that money won’t help her with GOP voters now – unless she goes Libertarian in November.
Of course, McAdams had just $4,553 as of 6/30. He is gonna need to kick it up a notch.
Miller is more of a Libertarian than Murkowski is. He’s from the small government Tea Party wing while she is from the big government pork barrel establishment wing.
Cant see an ideological party like the Libertarians backing Murkowski under any circumstances.