Ipsos/Reuters (8/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40
Ken Buck (R): 49
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Ipsos is back with the rosiest poll yet for turd-caked boot fetishist Ken Buck. The poll also offers an unsurprising glimpse of the enthusiasm gap in Colorado: 76% of Republicans say they are “completely certain” that they’ll vote compared to 59% of Democrats who feel the same. That gap is reflected in the registered voter screen version of the poll, where Buck’s lead over Bennet drops to 44-40.
Bennet’s campaign responded this morning with details of a Harstad Stategic Research poll (8/16-20, likely voters) conducted for their campaign:
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
Ken Buck (R): 40
(MoE: ±?%)
Bennet’s also up with a one-minute broadcast ad tearing into Ken Buck, in his own words. Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that Bennet now has $106K worth of broadcast ads currently on the airwaves.
Ipsos also has a set of numbers on the gubernatorial race:
John Hickenlooper (D): 45
Dan Maes (R): 45
Other: 1
Undecided: 9John Hickenlooper (D): 41
Dan Maes (R): 33
Tom Tancredo (C): 16
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Yikes — if there was ever a reflection of how scary this environment is for Democrats, it’s the sight of John Hickenlooper being tied with broke-assed tinfoil-hatter Dan Maes in a direct head-to-head race. (Among registered voters, Hickenlooper leads by 48-38, and by 42-27-19 in a three-way.) Those numbers are a lot more optimistic for Dan Maes than the most recent most recent PPP poll, but keep in mind that PPP hadn’t shifted to a likely voter model when they last tested this race.
Still, Hickenlooper is still clearly favored — Tancredo is still in this game, and Maes is, not surprisingly, having serious money woes. Even if you have the generic ballot on your side, it’s a bit difficult to win an election with a shoestring ad campaign…
Full Ipsos crosstabs are available below the fold.
I’ve learned in recent years that we learn a lot more about the state of the race from how candidates and parties behave than from polling, at least when the behavior diverges from a poll.
And Republicans aren’t getting behind Maes.
If that changes, only then can we say Ipsos is on to something.
But otherwise, this poll is not valid. Keep in mind if the RGA and state party bought into it, they’d go full bore, even with Tancredo in the race. You don’t give up on a nominee who’s down only 8 points in August in a wave year favoring your own party! If you do give up on him, it means that poll is just wrong.
I understand that when an internal is matched against a nonpartisan pollster you should probably trust the nonpartisan pollster, but 9 points? Even though I think Bennet’s numbers are probably right (or close to it), I could very easily see Buck leading by 2-3 points. This is way too much.
As for the governor’s race, Dan Maes is a nobody, there is no way in hell he could be tied without Tancredo in the race right now.
Reposted from the last thread since it is more germane here.