Saturday night is alright for hot congressional primary action. Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30pm Eastern, and Louisiana at 9pm.
LA-Sen (R): The race that never was. After being teased with the tantalizing prospect of cat fud for, well, years, David Vitter just never drew a Republican challenger of any substance despite his “serious sins”. The best he got was ex-state supreme court justice Chet Traylor, who has yet to break 5% in the polls. I believe that Crisitunity summed this race up pretty well earlier in the week:
Former state supreme court justice Chet Traylor’s late-breaking bid against Vitter was very interesting for the first few days, but at this point we might as well just close the book on it: his fundraising never materialized, his “family values” turned out to be as suspect as Vitter’s, and somehow he manages to be upside-down on favorables among GOP voters.
It’d probably be something of a minor accomplishment if Traylor could crack double digits tonight.
LA-02 (D): This Democratic primary — originally thought to be essentially to be the offer of a free House seat, although accidental GOP incumbent Joe Cao released an internal that suggests otherwise — was supposed to attract every ambitious New Orleans politician around. In the end, though, it really only attracted two of note: state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta. The establishment, both local and in DC, also quickly got behind Richmond (who finished third in the 2008 primary that Bill Jefferson eventually won). The DCCC added him but not LaFonta to Red to Blue, and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu recently endorsed him. The lone internal poll of the primary made public gave Richmond a 53-13 edge over LaFonta, outside the runoff zone. (There are some minor candidates present, so a runoff is possible.) (C)
LA-03 (R): Three GOPers are in the race for this Cajun Country seat left behind by Dem Charlie Melancon: former Houma State Rep. (and Democrat until 2000) Hunt Downer, attorney Jeff Landry, and engineer Kristian Magar. Downer is the establishment pick, but we saw on Tuesday how far that may or may not get you in the GOP these days. The tea-stained Landry and Magar have both been hitting Downer, whose history as a Democrat might just come back to bite him. Landry’s outspent Downer ($297k to $282k) and has the CoH advantage as well ($234k to $126k). This race will head to a runoff should no one clear 50%; a mano-a-mano matchup against either ‘bagger may be more difficult for Downer to handle. (JMD)
WV-Sen (D/R): If Gov. Joe Manchin doesn’t win the Democratic primary for the race to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s senate seat, we might have transitioned into an alternate universe. Manchin’s “main” opponent is Ken Hechler, “a 95-year-old former congressmen who represented West Virginia between 1959 and 1976 and also served in the Truman administration.” That means Hechler is actually older than Byrd was at the time of his death! Manchin’s already raised $1.2 million. No one else is even remotely close.
On the GOP side, richie rich John Raese is expected to win the nod against an even more uninspiring field. Raese has self-funded half a million bucks so far, and again, everyone else is scrounging for couch change. (Note that Raese spent more than $2 million of his own money running against Byrd in 2006, only to pull just 34% of the vote.) (D)
I’ve been thinking about the run-off. I wonder if Magar would endorse Downer. In the main debate of the race, Downer and Magar teamed up to attack Landry, and were very friendly to each other. Landry has also attacked Magar for being an independent for a few years, and Magar was not happy with those attacks. I wonder if that would push him to endorse Downer?
The weather sucks.
The preview seems to suggest that LA-02 (D) is heavily tilted in favor of Richmond. However, I remember seeing comments on here that discussed corruption issues surfacing that relate to Richmond. What are they and how much impact do you think they will have on the vote today?
The predictions thread? I’m gonna go ahead and do mine here.
WV-Sen
Manchin: 70
Hechler: 20
Fletcher: 10
Go Ken!
Raese: 70
Warner: 15
Rest: 15
LA-Sen
Vitter: 86
Traylor: 8
Accardo: 6
Interesting to see if Accardo passes up Traylor. Seprated by 1 in most polls. I voted for Accardo.
Melancon: 78
Deaton: 12
Chauvin: 10
LA-02
Richmond: 47
LaFonta: 30
Green: 15
Johnson: 8
Richmond close to avoiding run-off, may get there. I think the low turnout will keep him from getting there though.
LA-03
Landry: 45
Downer: 42
Magar: 13
LA-05
Alexander: 78
Slavant: 22
Alexander would have been vulnerable had he gotten a credible opponent in the Republican Primary because of his soft support for Landrieu in 2008, but anyone who may have run just decided to wait until he retires I guess. Maybe some legislators that would have run will try getting him in redistricting.
WV-Sen (D)
Manchin-80%
Hechler-12%
Other- 8%
WV-Sen (R)
Raese- 77%
Warner-16%
Other- 7%
LA-Sen (R)
Vitter- 85%
Accardo- 8%
Trayor- 7%
LA-Sen (D)
Melancon- 81%
Other- 19%
LA-2
Richmond- 51%
LaFonta- 30%
Green- 12%
Johnson- 7%
LA-3
Laudry- 44%
Downer- 41%
Magar- 15%
What were the numbers on that?
Are ya’ll planning on covering LA-4? David Melville is the candidate to watch there
…any polling on how Hechler matches up against Raese?
Course before I laugh that off there has been more than one case of some old guy upsetting the better known opponent with zillions of dollars while spending next to nothing. Most notably Fred Tuttle. Of course Ken Hechler makes the 79 year old Tuttle look like a youngster. And for some odd reason I think Gov. Manchin is going to do just fine. 😉
LA-Sen (D):
Charlie Melancon – 89%
Some dudes – 11%
LA-Sen (R):
David Vitter – 87%
Chet Traylor – 9%
Nick Accardo – 4%
LA-02 (D):
Cedric Richmond – 46%
Juan LaFonta – 31%
Eugene Green – 14%
Gary Johnson – 9%
WV-Sen (D):
Joe Manchin – 60%
Ken Hechler – 26%
Sheirl Fletcher – 14%
WV-Sen (R):
John Raese – 64%
Mac Warner – 13%
8 some dudes – 23%
Who’ve they got there?
Anyhoo:
Vitter 88
Traylor 8
Mr. S. Dude 4
Richmond 42
La Fonta 39
Downer 45
Landry 31
Mr. Rando T. Bagger 14
is hot
only 11% in but unless these are only Landry strongholds so far, it looks like the best Downer can hope for is a runoff.